Patriots -7 at Miami

hubie69 · 09-12-11, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by Redchevy

I just don't feel that is going to happen. I think NE puts up in 35 point range and I don't see Henne coming close to that.

It appears vegas sees it as 27 ish

peeiempee · 09-12-11, 03:04 PM

Remember eagles game yesterday, everybody who thinks they know vegas said Rams and look what happend. Gonna be a Pats blowout

Noles19 · 09-12-11, 03:13 PM

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everyone keeps asking "how will the dolphins move the ball, how will they win" i just thought I would remind everyone.

Louisvillekid1 · 09-12-11, 03:19 PM

This is not about being a trap, this is about the state of these two organizations. Pats are overrated this season, and dolphins underrated. The fish have weapons now with marshall moving the chains on 3rd down, bess making some nice plays down the field and reggie bush is finally in a situation where he can me the man. On defense they have one of the best tandem corner's in the league, along with some terrific pass rushers lead by cameron wake. They will get pressure on Brady. These teams know each well and forget about the scores from last season, that just adds the revenge factor on top of an home opener on monday night, while trying to break this home opener losing streak.

On the other side, 85 is done. Welker is very dangerous and their TE's are very underrated. But I just don't see the weapons to attack down the field. Also, Im not sold on the pats defense this year.

Henne will make some big plays, and when in doubt brandon marshall is always open. Look for Reggie Bush to make some big plays as well. As long as they dont get crushed in the TO ratio, Miami should be in position to win this game well into the fourth quarter.

And if not I still got 7 points to work with, win or lose my play is the fish +7....

Just a side note, do u think NE would really risk the trouble that could come from 85 and Fat Albert if they didn't think they needed more talent? Its going to be hot in miami and we'll see how wilfork/haynesworth and the rest of this cold weather team handles it.

FISH +7

konck · 09-12-11, 03:20 PM

Im on the finns big

brahmabull117 · 09-12-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

This is not about being a trap, this is about the state of these two organizations. Pats are overrated this season, and dolphins underrated. The fish have weapons now with marshall moving the chains on 3rd down, bess making some nice plays down the field and reggie bush is finally in a situation where he can me the man. On defense they have one of the best tandem corner's in the league, along with some terrific pass rushers lead by cameron wake. They will get pressure on Brady. These teams know each well and forget about the scores from last season, that just adds the revenge factor on top of an home opener on monday night, while trying to break this home opener losing streak. On the other side, 85 is done. Welker is very dangerous and their TE's are very underrated. But I just don't see the weapons to attack down the field. Also, Im not sold on the pats defense this year. Henne will make some big plays, and when in doubt brandon marshall is always open. Look for Reggie Bush to make some big plays as well. As long as they dont get crushed in the TO ratio, Miami should be in position to win this game well into the fourth quarter. And if not I still got 7 points to work with, win or lose my play is the fish +7.... Just a side note, do u think NE would really risk the trouble that could come from 85 and Fat Albert if they didn't think they needed more talent? Its going to be hot in miami and we'll see how wilfork/haynesworth and the rest of this cold weather team handles it. FISH +7

I think you're smoking crack with your analysis of the dolphins

Chad henne had a 75 QB rating and 4 more INTs than touchdowns last year, how the hell is he gonna show improvement at this stage of his career??? He's a terrible quarterback no matter how you look at it. And reggie bush finally in situation to be the man?? This guy is an awful in between the tackle runner, the only place he has on the football field is a change of pace/3rd down back. Expecting him to succesfully carry the ball 25 times is absolutely ridiculous

Matt1144 · 09-12-11, 03:26 PM

Liked Pats earlier in the week, should have taken them when they were still -1

Regardless, I still like them and took them -6.5 for a few units.

Drew0585 · 09-12-11, 03:27 PM

I tried to make the "sharp" plays of taking Duke +21 on Saturday when 84% of the public was on Stanford and St Louis +4.5 against a much better Philadelphia team yesterday. Tonight I'm taking the FAR superior team and laying 6.5 points (bought 1/2 pt).

DwightShrute · 09-12-11, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I think you're smoking crack with your analysis of the dolphins

Chad henne had a 75 QB rating and 4 more INTs than touchdowns last year, how the hell is he gonna show improvement at this stage of his career??? He's a terrible quarterback no matter how you look at it. And reggie bush finally in situation to be the man?? This guy is an awful in between the tackle runner, the only place he has on the football field is a change of pace/3rd down back. Expecting him to succesfully carry the ball 25 times is absolutely ridiculous

actually his analysis is spot on imo.

Putting all the blame of the qb when things go bad and also giving him too much credit when they are winning is just silly. First, you need a good game plan, you need decent pass protection and then the QB needs to put the receiver or RB in a position to make play and lastly , you need players that can make plays. That's why its called a team game.

brahmabull117 · 09-12-11, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by DwightShrute

actually his analysis is spot on imo. Putting all the blame of the qb when things go bad and also giving him too much credit when they are winning is just silly. First, you need a good game plan, you need decent pass protection and the the QB needs to put the receiver or RB in a position to make play and lastly , you need players that can make plays. That's why its called a team game.

chad henne is a fukking scrub, give me a break!!!! 75 qb rating

and he didn't have bad talent last year, brandon marshall at WR and a couple of decent receivers

Julian9 · 09-12-11, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Noles19

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-h...ins-highlights

everyone keeps asking "how will the dolphins move the ball, how will they win" i just thought I would remind everyone.

so basically all you are saying is that for the dolphins to win: the dolphins need to get brady to throw 2 or more interceptions again, miss a 4th and 1 in the redzone, take away thier new talent which will help them move the ball (ocho, gron, hernandez, woodhead...), have ronnie brown who is gone get them some short yardage 1st downs on 4th down (reggie bush is just as strong of a runner as ronnie i guess

), trusting Henne on offense who is scared to throw a pass longer than 15 yards to brandon marshall, trusting reggie bush to be an every down back running between the tackles, and trusting that one of the best coaches ever in the nfl doesnt want to run the score up and will play with an intensity to rip the dolphins faces off having a much more talented and well coached team..... yeah i see it your way now, dolphins money line for me!!!!!!!

DwightShrute · 09-12-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

chad henne is a fukking scrub, give me a break!!!! 75 qb rating

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marshall was injured for most of the season as we all know. Ronnie Brown looked like he was afraid to get hit and Ricky Williams, although it hurts me to say, was just sticking around to get to the 10,000 yards plateau. Bless his heart but he wasn't close to the back he was.

Fact: Henne has won as many playoff games as Brady has in the last 3 years.

brahmabull117 · 09-12-11, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by DwightShrute

Fact: Henne has won as many playoff games as Brady has in the last 3 years.

Fact: Henne was #26 out of 31 possible quarterbacks in QB rating last year

Louisvillekid1 · 09-12-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I think you're smoking crack with your analysis of the dolphins

Chad henne had a 75 QB rating and 4 more INTs than touchdowns last year, how the hell is he gonna show improvement at this stage of his career??? He's a terrible quarterback no matter how you look at it. And reggie bush finally in situation to be the man?? This guy is an awful in between the tackle runner, the only place he has on the football field is a change of pace/3rd down back. Expecting him to succesfully carry the ball 25 times is absolutely ridiculous

what did read? who said anything about 25 carries, all im saying is he can get more touches.... also who said anything about running between the tackles?

He'll be on the field more, creating more opportunities to make big plays... they wouldn't let ronnie brown and ricky williams walk if they didnt they weren't happy with their backfield.

and yes henne is average qb but i do expect slight improvement ?(alteast) taking care of the ball better...

hubie69 · 09-12-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Fact: Henne was #26 out of 31 possible quarterbacks in QB rating last year

Well, I hope you guys keep pushing that line towards 9.

aceking · 09-12-11, 03:53 PM

Pats 31 miami 13

brahmabull117 · 09-12-11, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by aceking

Pats 31 miami 13

this is what I'm projecting as well

Stevedore · 09-12-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I think you're smoking crack with your analysis of the dolphins

Chad henne had a 75 QB rating and 4 more INTs than touchdowns last year, how the hell is he gonna show improvement at this stage of his career??? He's a terrible quarterback no matter how you look at it. And reggie bush finally in situation to be the man?? This guy is an awful in between the tackle runner, the only place he has on the football field is a change of pace/3rd down back. Expecting him to succesfully carry the ball 25 times is absolutely ridiculous

You're completely ignoring the Dolphins defense. Don't want to hear about last year blowout in Miami either; that was special teams related, that's going to happen again tonight? Miami was in that game till they're special teams blew the game.

DwightShrute · 09-12-11, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Fact: Henne was #26 out of 31 possible quarterbacks in QB rating last year

Fact: Roethlisberger's QB rating of 22.6 in Super Bowl XL is lowest rating of a winning quarterback in Super Bowl history. The previous lowest QB rating of a winning Super Bowl QB was John Elway's 51.9 in Denver's victory over Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII.

does that mean Henne's qb rating of 75 makes him more than 3X better than Big Ben or 50% better than Elway? just sayin'

DwightShrute · 09-12-11, 03:56 PM

Fact:

Originally posted by stevedore

you're completely ignoring the dolphins defense. Don't want to hear about last year blowout in miami either; that was special teams related, that's going to happen again tonight? Miami was in that game till they're special teams blew the game.

hart07 · 09-12-11, 04:07 PM

Pats would win tonight by 7 points and more but dolphins would try to keep the score close from the Pats.
Why Pats would be unable to score less than 7 points difference.

i am on the pats with - 7 points

Regarding Raiders at Broncos the game will be over i think and it would be a very close game Perhaps broncos -3 but not sure.
Beware Raisers could be a surprise in denver.
But i don't touch this game

i stay with Pats - 7

Redchevy · 09-12-11, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

You're completely ignoring the Dolphins defense. Don't want to hear about last year blowout in Miami either; that was special teams related, that's going to happen again tonight? Miami was in that game till they're special teams blew the game.

Granted Miamis' defense is their better half but I don't think a one dimensional Team will win tonight. NE scores fast and often, I just can't see Miamis' offense tonight keeping pace. I'm not seeing a 10-6 Miami win here which has been their norm, low scoring defensive games. A monsoon at kickoff could slow NE down but if game time is dry, I look for NE to pick up where they left off last year during the regular season. Scoring fast and often!!!! Good luck to all, anything can happen and this is just my opinion on the topic at hand.

big0mar · 09-12-11, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

chad henne is a fukking scrub, give me a break!!!! 75 qb rating

and he didn't have bad talent last year, brandon marshall at WR and a couple of decent receivers

You realize that bad QBs win all the time in this league?

JAFO · 09-12-11, 04:14 PM

I'll take the over!

:

Noles19 · 09-12-11, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Julian9

so basically all you are saying is that for the dolphins to win: the dolphins need to get brady to throw 2 or more interceptions again, miss a 4th and 1 in the redzone, take away thier new talent which will help them move the ball (ocho, gron, hernandez, woodhead...), have ronnie brown who is gone get them some short yardage 1st downs on 4th down (reggie bush is just as strong of a runner as ronnie i guess

), trusting Henne on offense who is scared to throw a pass longer than 15 yards to brandon marshall, trusting reggie bush to be an every down back running between the tackles, and trusting that one of the best coaches ever in the nfl doesnt want to run the score up and will play with an intensity to rip the dolphins faces off having a much more talented and well coached team..... yeah i see it your way now, dolphins money line for me!!!!!!!

I'm staying away from this game. I'm not trying to argue either side, I just wanted to remind people of the sort of things that happen in division rival games with two good defenses.

brahmabull117 · 09-12-11, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

You're completely ignoring the Dolphins defense. Don't want to hear about last year blowout in Miami either; that was special teams related, that's going to happen again tonight? Miami was in that game till they're special teams blew the game.

what about week 17 when the pats won by 31 and had 500 yards of offense and 38 points??

dolphins do have a decent defense but there's not a defense in the league that can hold the patriots to less than 25 points consistently and I'm supposed to sit here and believe that Chad Henne is gonna beat tom brady in a shootout???

For god's sake, the patriots averaged 34 points per game in 5 games against pittsburg, chicago, green bay and the jets. You really think miami has a better defense than those 4 teams??

Pin Fish · 09-12-11, 04:37 PM

Getting ready to head out to the game .............the pinfish have a huge problem on the right side of the o line.............patriots will crush the pinfish...........hence my screen name..........

Pick'nParlays · 09-12-11, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

pats tt over 27 is -165 at the greek- that is unheard of. either they want people to lay off or they clean up. i mean no hook on it? hmm

Sorry LB im confused by this statement. Are you saying they are enticing us to stay away from an over play with heavy juice? Making it a smart play??

DwightShrute · 09-12-11, 04:45 PM

Patriots last 9 games on the road against the AFC east .....

8-1 against the Bills
7-2 against the Jets
4-5 Against Miami

Just sayin'

Sniperpicks · 09-12-11, 04:47 PM

if the pats cant be up by 14 or more mid 4th Q then they are not what i think they are. I see them being UP double digits of 14 or more and maybe miami gets a junk TD in the last possession they have

be sure to get pats -6.5

Pin Fish · 09-12-11, 04:50 PM

AND.........
<LI class=more>Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

MoneyLineDawg · 09-12-11, 04:54 PM

I think this game could be a lot closer than people think.....Miami is not a good team, but they can compete and will be fired up at home for sure against their division rivals. Pats are getting too much credit IMO on the road in week 1 so I took the Dolphins +7.5. I really like this bet and think it will come down to the last possession, with probably the Pats winning, something like 27-24.

thebestthereis · 09-12-11, 04:54 PM

What you have is 7-0 Pats right away and then you start swearing at the TV, this is what is gonna happen.

Sniperpicks · 09-12-11, 05:03 PM

Pats aint ending the season with a shitfest vs Jets then all offseason prep and start with a mediocre effort vs fish

Miami is a shitstain on the nfl right now, lots of D talent, misfit QB and RB is a name (reg bush) not a talent added to sell tix not win games

miami should be the first team to fire its coach

Soxsfan9 · 09-12-11, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by peterw111

Here's an interesting stat

Miami is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 spots as an underdog, while the Patriots have a 2-5 spread mark in their last seven games held during September.

Stats Quoted from SBR nfl handicapping site

And what that stat forgot to add was the Phins are also 17-45-1 ATS in their last 63 home games...

Stats come and go......