Is 2-out-3 a reasonable expectation?

[englishmike]

Assuming you started with a bankroll and were in for the long haul, would 2-out-of-3 winners(66%) be an unreasonable expectation if you were picking 2 games a week over the course of a year? 2-out-3 sounds borderline to me but 20-out-of-30 seems reasonable. Thoughts anyone?

[element1286]

Depends on what you are betting.

[Ganchrow]

Assuming you started with a bankroll and were in for the long haul, would 2-out-of-3 winners(66%) be an unreasonable expectation if you were picking 2 games a week over the course of a year? 2-out-3 sounds borderline to me but 20-out-of-30 seems reasonable. Thoughts anyone?

Betting major sport main line spreads and totals at or around -110?

No, it would not be a reasonable expectation.

[englishmike]

For the purposes of the conversation, lets say 25% of bankroll never deviating.

[englishmike]

Im thinking English/Euro Soccer with even money being the most regular price I would be betting.

[SBR Lou]

2-out-3 sounds borderline to me but 20-out-of-30 seems reasonable. Thoughts anyone?

Neither one sound reasonable to me at all.

[JBC77]

If your talking about MLB....in my opinion less is more. If your betting 4 or 5 MLB plays a day, things can go wrong, maybe not right away..but eventually they do.

Buy yeah...I don't think anyone out here would argue with 66%, 2 out of 3 is good.

[jjgold]

2 our of three is possible long term

52 % is extremely difficult

[Capwizards]

No it is not reasonable overall. I have been capping baseball for years and do run at roughly a 67% clip for MLB. That being said, it takes time and discipline. You could throw a dart at a board and hit 2 of 3 for a week......doing it consistently over a period of time is what makes handicapping an interesting challenge. It can be done, but I can't say that is is realistic for everyone......GL

[SlickFazzer]

66% over the long term at or around -110 is impossible.

54-57% and you should be happier than pigs in slop.

[englishmike]

Thanks for your input people, I appreciate it, I know these questions have been asked a million times before and I'm sure it bores the life out of most people but I'm trying to become a better long-term gambler/investor with a system and I do find other peoples input extremely helpful.

One more question. Assuming your goal is 2-3, what percentage of the bankroll would be a prudent number to pick and religiously stick to?

Thanks again for your help.

[HedgeHog]

Betting -300 ML, I think 67% is attainable.

[SBR Lou]

Betting -300 ML, I think 67% is attainable.

[LT Profits]

Great point Hedgehog!

Regarding the 11/10 sports, the best handicappers in the world are very happy with a 55% win rate. Hoping for higher than that long term is not at all realistic.

[HedgeHog]

Thanks for your input people, I appreciate it, I know these questions have been asked a million times before and I'm sure it bores the life out of most people but I'm trying to become a better long-term gambler/investor with a system and I do find other peoples input extremely helpful.

One more question. Assuming your goal is 2-3, what percentage of the bankroll would be a prudent number to pick and religiously stick to?

Thanks again for your help.

Ganch's calculators (Kelly) will give you the answer you need. At -110, I believe you should bet 30% of your bankroll per pick. But again, hitting 2 of 3 on "even" money bets isn't realistic. Seriously!

[jtuck]

Use Kelly Calculator on SBRLines for bet size and. You will be profitable hitting 54%, 66% is unattainable. This post put alot of it into perspective. http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...hink-tank.html

[englishmike]

Thanks Hedge, I promise this is the last question! Over a period of 52 selective and researched games that you feel you might have found an 'edge' in, if you think 66% is a reach how many do you think you would hit and have you ever recorded such data?

[englishmike]

Use Kelly Calculator on SBRLines for bet size and. You will be profitable hitting 54%, 66% is unattainable. This post put alot of it into perspective. http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...hink-tank.html

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[HedgeHog]

Thanks Hedge, I promise this is the last question! Over a period of 52 selective and researched games that you feel you might have found an 'edge' in, if you think 66% is a reach how many do you think you would hit and have you ever recorded such data?

Ganch is better equipped to answer your question than I am. I will say that 52 games is not a large enough sample size to conclude you're a 67% handicapper.

Ganch will also tell you that it's much better to underestimate your win % when determining your bet size. Try 3% of your bankroll and if you hit anywhere near your expected win rate, raise your bets accordingly.

[Dark Horse]

Two out of three is possible for a select system here and there, but not remotely possible for an overall betting percentage.

[pat venditto]

2 out of 3 is reasonable i think.

[topgame85]

2-3 is 66% considering most people lose money and you only need to win 52.8% to be in the green I would say it is a tough task, that being said it is not impossible if you do your HW and dedicate yourself to the task at hand

[englishmike]

Thanks to all concerned, I feel like I've seen the light and consigned the blind parlays to the history books. I've been sat in front an Excel spreadsheet for the best part of three days trying to document certain margins, situations, time-frames and percentages. The thing I've noticed is the difference in profit between 54% and 66%, which I know sounds obvious but in relative terms its astronomical if like me you're in it for the long haul. I can't beileve I didn't do this research 20 years ago, i'm a cunt to myself because it makes me sick to think I could have put 20 years of ill-informed gambling money into a decent long-term system . My sport of choice is going to be soccer and I'm going to be betting no more than two-games-a-week max and I'll back nothing lower than Even money. I can honestly say I've lost more money than I can remember but it is refreshing to get the enthusiasm back so thanks for the advice and if theres anything else you want to add please say it or IM me.

[pat venditto]

66% isnt reasonable if your betting games u shouldnt be (games with little to no edge)

[RogueJuror]

My sport of choice is going to be soccer and I'm going to be betting no more than two-games-a-week max and I'll back nothing lower than Even money.

It's great that you are trying to improve yourself, understand though, that if your goal is long term success you need to value bet; and limiting yourself to two bets per week means that you are limiting your growth potential. And who's to say those two bets actually contain value? With a higher quantity of bets you can possibly erk out negative value bets long term wise. Also understand, even money plus doesn't automatically translate to a possible value play, in this subject familiarize your self with this great article by Ganchy.

An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold

[englishmike]

OK, I've done a spreadsheet on MS Excel. I've taken it over a 36-week-period, betting 2-games-a-week at a level price of EVEN money. The reason I've done this is because the English Soccer season is approx 38 weeks long and this is where I will be staking and I wont be staking anything with juice.(obviously theres juice on the betting percentage/overround) I've done it with 200 (£ or $) being the theroretical start point with between 30% and 33% of the bankroll being staked each and every time. The difference between 54% success rate and 66% is staggering. I realise many people would start with a bank of more than 200 so you can double/treble/add a nought on the figures to suit yourself. If anyone is interested and wants the spredsheet PM me and I'll e-mail it to you, it's interesting stuff.

[englishmike]

Rogue: thanks for the advice and thanks for giving Ganchrows link. The one thing I have discovered in all of this is a lot of things are relative to the way a person thinks and are very individual and some things can have pros and cons both ways, for instance, you asked how will I know my 2 bets contain value and its a good question. Value is obviously the one thing that is an individual cappers opinion and he will ultimately live or die by his capping so I could also throw it back to you and ask you how you know your bets(more bets) will contain value, and what if there were no 'value' bets that week, would you still have a bet? I suppose my answer to you would be I'm going all out to ONLY bet games where I perceive there to be an edge or some value and do something Ive never done....be very selective after hours of weekly homework.

[hoopster42]

66.7% long term vs -110, forget about it

long term = 100 picks or more

but good luck!