Question for baseball gurus

[pavyracer]

How often do winning dogs also hit the -1.5 RL? Is it like 50% or less.

Thanks.

[element1286]

I don't know, but I would think it is more like 30-35%.

[BeatTheJerk]

thats a great question ......... i don't have an accurate figure but i would say ...........40-44%

[BeatTheJerk]

just by what i see thusfar through the year by following mlb

[BeatTheJerk]

mlb for years favs cover 60% dogs 40% thats how it usually ends up give or take and the runlines fall in place with regular dogs basically at the same rate slightly higher i believe

[big joe 1212]

38.947653333%

[TheLock]

I'm confused Pavy.

Are you asking how often dogs hit the PLUS 1.5 RL?

[BeatTheJerk]

i was pretty close .................

[pavyracer]

I'm confused Pavy.

Are you asking how often dogs hit the PLUS 1.5 RL?

No. Let me give you an example. Today St.Louis was +103 ML. The St.Louis -1.5 RL was at +203. You could have made twice as much money by betting the RL on the home dog.

[Ganchrow]

How often do winning dogs also hit the -1.5 RL? Is it like 50% or less.

Since 1999, considering only dogs at a ML ≥ +100 (based on covers.com data):

71.63% of all winning dogs covered the -1½ run line. (6,497 out of 9,070)

64.85% of winning home dogs covered the -1½ run line. (1,882 out of 2,902)

74.82% of winning road dogs covered the -1½ run line. (4,615 out of 6,168)

Data current as of 6/28/2008.

[Bet Shooter]

Since 1999, considering only dogs at a ML ≥ +100 (based on covers.com data):

71.63% of all winning dogs covered the -1½ run line. (6,497 out of 9,070)

64.85% of winning home dogs covered the -1½ run line. (1,882 out of 2,902)

74.82% of winning road dogs covered the -1½ run line. (4,615 out of 6,168)

I knew there would be some reason posted if I waited long enough. Thank You again Ganch.

[TheLock]

No. Let me give you an example. Today St.Louis was +103 ML. The St.Louis -1.5 RL was at +203. You could have made twice as much money by betting the RL on the home dog.

Ok I gotcha. Alternative RL.

[Bet Shooter]

Since 1999, considering only dogs at a ML ≥ +100 (based on covers.com data):

71.63% of all winning dogs covered the -1½ run line. (6,497 out of 9,070)

64.85% of winning home dogs covered the -1½ run line. (1,882 out of 2,902)

74.82% of winning road dogs covered the -1½ run line. (4,615 out of 6,168)

Data current as of 6/28/2008.

Would you think a valid play would be to take the run lines on the away dogs if payout is better than the 75% win percentage? Am I out in left field here?

[Ganchrow]

Would you think a valid play would be to take the run lines on the away dogs if payout is better than the 75% win percentage? Am I out in left field here?

In general, no.

The above figures are simply averages. Proper pricing of a run line will necessarily depend on both the fair total and the fair money line (perhaps among other game-specific factors).

[rake922]

Since 1999, considering only dogs at a ML ≥ +100 (based on covers.com data):

71.63% of all winning dogs covered the -1½ run line. (6,497 out of 9,070)

64.85% of winning home dogs covered the -1½ run line. (1,882 out of 2,902)

74.82% of winning road dogs covered the -1½ run line. (4,615 out of 6,168)

Data current as of 6/28/2008.

Out of those 9070 games.... what was the probability the Dogs won the game

[Ganchrow]

Out of those 9070 games.... what was the probability the Dogs won the game

Out of those 9,070 games? 100%.

Those 9,070 games represent 42.78% of the total number of games over the sample period with an underdog of at least +100 (21,203).