Baseball bettors.........why not do what I do?

[Iwinyourmoney]

Im sure most of u know Im not a baseball capper. I have been betting baseball lately but only maybe 2-3 games a week to fullfill my sports betting needs until football comes back.

Anyways, I will ONLY bet dogs. I dont find value in taking teams at -160 and whatnot.

Anyways, when I take a dog at lets say.....+170
I ALWAYS bet them for the 1st 5 innings and the game

I place the same amount on each side at the same line. So all I have to do is win 1 and its guarenteed profit.

Hitting both sides will be like making the bet at +340.

Anybody else do this? It has payed of VERY well for me.

[SlickFazzer]

Interesting concept.

Wonder what percent of the time the team leading after 5 also wins the game....

[pat venditto]

[Iwinyourmoney]

It pays very well and works very well

[EaglesPhan36]

Since I just got back on board for sports after hitting the ponies for awhile, I've got just one rule for myself for money management ... bet one baseball game per day. If I hit, I allow myself a shot to "reinvest" a fraction of the winnings on a late game.

[chandler1981]

Iwin,

I also would like to know what Slickfazzer asked. Do you know if you would be as successful taking the game instead of the first 5 innings?

Interesting strategy.

[pavyracer]

I'm 15-6 in playing dogs this month with +10 units. It's easier to win in the long run playing only dogs.

[onlooker]

I'm 15-6 in playing dogs this month with +10 units. It's easier to win in the long run playing only dogs.

Even though I am still in a bad funk.

[SlickFazzer]

I'm 15-6 in playing dogs this month with +10 units. It's easier to win in the long run playing only dogs.

+150 to -120, and a rare 130ish... is all I ever consider

[SBR Lou]

Sounds like a strategy worth looking into.

[darrell74]

Alright, rally caps gotta come on. Need two runs to guarantee a push. Lets go O's.

[onlooker]

+150 to -120, and a rare 130ish... is all I ever consider

If I ever bet favorites, it will be small ones as you speak.

[Iwinyourmoney]

I have not tracked any stats unfortunitly, I wish I had been. If I remember right, Ive probably done this about 20 times and only have lost both bets like 2-4 times. Ive won both probably 6-9 times and have went 1-1 OR 1-0-1 probably 5-7 times. Going 1-1 still makes profit instead of losing juice like usual.

[onlooker]

Keep a spreadsheet on things, so you can see how well things work.

[Iwinyourmoney]

+150 to -120, and a rare 130ish... is all I ever consider

I will never touch a play unless it's +130 or better. Best Ive hit was the Cards in Boston last week. Took em for the first 2 of 3 in the series. Went 3-0-1. Highest paid was at +240 and lowest at +210

[rake922]

and you seldom go 0-2?

[mathdotcom]

you still have to pick winners
you probably would have made just as much betting only the 1st 5 or game.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Rake

I have not tracked any stats unfortunitly, I wish I had been. If I remember right, Ive probably done this about 20 times and only have lost both bets like 2-4 times. Ive won both probably 6-9 times and have went 1-1 OR 1-0-1 probably 5-7 times. Going 1-1 still makes profit instead of losing juice like usual.

[darrell74]

Now its interesting. 2 on no outs. I'll need some tums, for this one.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Now its interesting. 2 on no outs. I'll need some tums, for this one.

[Marigold HD]

Could maybe look into it

[onlooker]

I think he is talking about the Orioles/Nationals game.

[Iwinyourmoney]

You're making 2 bets at PLUS money. All you have have to do is win 1 and its a free roll the whole way through. Going 1-1 50% never felt so good.

On a game at +150 lets say you do this:
1st 5innings +150 $1000 pays- $1,500
Game +150 $1,000 pay - $1,500

You win the 1st 5 innings but lose the game....you are +$500

It gives you better odds of making money.

[TheLock]

Very interesting IWin. Thanks for posting this.

Like someone else mentioned, a detailed spreadsheet would make this even more interesting.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Very interesting IWin. Thanks for posting this.

Like someone else mentioned, a detailed spreadsheet would make this even more interesting.

I called my bookie and asked him if he tracked my bets and he said he only keeps bets logged until either he payed up or the player payed up. So ya I got nothing

[Nicky Santoro]

Anyways, when I take a dog at lets say.....+170
I ALWAYS bet them for the 1st 5 innings and the game

I place the same amount on each side at the same line. So all I have to do is win 1 and its guarenteed profit.

Hitting both sides will be like making the bet at +340.

alright.. i dont want to burst your bubble, but this system will make you go bankrupt.

first of all, you're NOT getting +340... you are still getting +170..

remember, you are risking 200 to win 340, so it's +170.. if you lose the 5 inning, and the game, you lose 100 on each.. so the most you can lose is 200, and the most you can win is 340, thus making it +170, not +340..


your system is no good because what if your team is down 3-2 after 5 inn, then win 4-3.. instead of winning 340, you win ONLY 70 bucks. (and this happens a lot) had you bet them straight up, you would win 340 instead of 70.. and if they are up 4-0 end of 5 inn, then win 7-2, you'd still win 340.. there is NO advantage in what you are doing.


the only way it would be great is if you can parlay it, but you can't cause that's correlated.

get off this system, it's not a moneymaker at all.. i am just trying to help you, not try to be smarter than you..


YOU'RE BETTER OFF BETTING THEM STRAIGHT UP FOR THE GAME FOR YOUR RETURN ON INVESTMENT.

[pat venditto]

this is a bad concept i agree with nicky. you will not win long term betting like this. you arent handicapping ur trying to get lucky with a dog.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Nicky, I understand completely what your saying. But I can easily reverse everything think you said (situation wise) to make it sound better (ex: What if my team is up 2-0 after 5 then lose the game 4-2). ect.

The way I am looking at it is this. Nicky......how many days do you go 2-2 or 4-4 on bets, and you lose your juice. If you clear one bet, you make + $$$. +$ is +$.

Trust me, I understand the risk of losing both bets. I understand the theory of just betting the game. If I'm betting the dog of +150 (at $100) and go 1-1..........I am +$50. If I hit both sides I am +$300. If I miss them both I am -$200.

Taking both sides is like a insurance bet. Guess what if that bullpen ****s up the game when they were winning 3-1 in the 9th......at least I held on to the 5inning win and still went plus money.

Going this way has more outcomes to produce +$ then outcomes to produce - money.

[Nicky Santoro]

You're Better Off Going Straight Up And Getting The Full +170 Because You Will Go 2-0 Way Way More Often Than Going 1-1.. Usually, When A Team Is Up After 5 Inn, Over 80% Of The Time They Win.. You'll Get A Lot Of 4-0 End Of 5.. And 7-1 Final.. Which Dont Help You


And If You Are Up 5-0 End Of 5 Inn, And Win 9-1, You Still Get +170.. Makes No Difference Here.

Dollar For Dollar, You Are Better Off Going Straight Up And Getting The Full +170.. Yes, Sometimes It Will Save You, But More Often, You Will Get F-cked On It, As You Will Go 2-0 Way More Often Than Going 1-1..

[Iwinyourmoney]

I understand what your sayin Nicky. I guess time will tell. Its doing great so far, but what goes up must come down