Heads up on a prop bet

[stevenash]

5Dimes is offering
FIRST 3-2 PITCH COUNT FOULED OFF +170
NOT FOULED OFF -230

OK, I've been betting people at the sports bar beers, drinks, sawbucks even money on the first pitch of a 3-2 count being fouled off.

Stats INC has a data base full of such information, going back to 1980 the odds of the first 3-2 pitch being fouled off is 6:5 in your favor, -120, 30 years of recent data proves this.

5D has +170 on a -120 prop bet.

I'm not suggesting going all in on a silly prop bet, I'm not even suggesting you bet it, I am saying you can get +170 on a -120 wager.

[Emily_Haines]

I'm in

max bet is 100

[nobs]

I didnt go back and look at 30 years of data, so i will take your word for it. But do they really keep 30 years of data on something like what happens on the first 3-2 pitch of games ?

Also, I dont know, maybe I am wrong, but it seems hard to swallow that any given outcome would be "6 to 5 in your favor".

I mean there are a lot of possibilites here, so 6 to 5 in your favor for anything seems hard to swallow.

so you are saying that about 55% of the time that first 3-2 pitch of the game is fouled off, and 45% of the time its called ball 4 or called strike 3 or a swing and a miss or a ground ball or a hit or a fly out or a home run, etc.

Im just saying, maybe youre right, but it sure doesnt seem right

[milwaukee mike]

I didnt go back and look at 30 years of data, so i will take your word for it. But do they really keep 30 years of data on something like what happens on the first 3-2 pitch of games ?

Also, I dont know, maybe I am wrong, but it seems hard to swallow that any given outcome would be "6 to 5 in your favor".

I mean there are a lot of possibilites here, so 6 to 5 in your favor for anything seems hard to swallow.

so you are saying that about 55% of the time that first 3-2 pitch of the game is fouled off, and 45% of the time its called ball 4 or called strike 3 or a swing and a miss or a ground ball or a hit or a fly out or a home run, etc.

Im just saying, maybe youre right, but it sure doesnt seem right

i agree with nobs here, no way is it more than 50% that a pitch is fouled off vs all the other outcomes

[BIGDAY]

I'll pass, thanks for the heads up though.

[stevenash]

Simply put, I'm saying it's a little better than even money a 3-2 pitch is fouled off.

When I first heard this years ago, I started paying attention to 3-2 counts in games on TV, and it was pretty accurate.
So I'm at the sports bar the next month, I say to the guy next to me, "I'll bet you the next round the next pitch is fouled off" (The sceneario was 3-2)

I won that.

Now it's not a stone cold lock, but I know a guy who writes at FanGraphs, he researched it, I'm just saying +170 is great value.

[BigDan]

i buy it. the fact that the hitter worked a 3-2 count in the 1st place probably translates into him fouling off some pitches more times than not. not betting it but might try it at the bar next time, normally only bet outcome of a plate appearance GL

[face]

i buy it too. 3-2 pitches get fouled off a lot. thanks for heads up. i put 5 bucks on it.

[8ArIvd5]

i just flipped a coin 50 times and the outcome was heads 35 times.

i'll give you -110 that heads comes up again.

[JohnnyD4916]

Good luck, I'll put a small wager on it

[rm18]

It is a lot harder to foul off the stuff of a strikeout pitcher than an average pitcher though, and also could be a big strikeout guy that gets the first 3-2 count like a Rickie Weeks

[rm18]

if you want a good bet lay the wood on nobody to get over 2.5 hits only chance is if it goes 15+ innings.

[BigDan]

It is a lot harder to foul off the stuff of a strikeout pitcher than an average pitcher though, and also could be a big strikeout guy that gets the first 3-2 count like a Rickie Weeks

Very good point and prob explains the reason the odds are what they are if this is actually a 50/50 type situation over 30 years like op claims.

[stevenash]

It is a lot harder to foul off the stuff of a strikeout pitcher than an average pitcher though, and also could be a big strikeout guy that gets the first 3-2 count like a Rickie Weeks

I looked at the starting line ups before starting the thread, you should get a 3-2 count before Weeks gets up in the bottom of the first.

Once again, I'm not telling anybody to bet this, I'm throwing it out for discussion, and relating my past experience on bar bets.

It's not a lock by any means, but +170 is tempting, and I bought it.

[rm18]

It probably is a good bet but I think under 50%, kind of like betting a yard TD score in football is a good bet according to the numbers but better in some games than others.

[nobs]

Nash or anyone

I will give you + 260 on this bet.

I will bet my 13 points against 5 of yours that it wont be fouled off.

Just a friendly bet.

Say yes and I will send you the 13 right now, and you send me back 18 if you lose.

Any takers.

[nobs]

Come on Nash or anyone. Lets do this. Just to make it interesting. I wont bet any $$$ but I will be a few points.

I say the first 3--2 count wont be fouled off.

I get everything except foul off. You get foul off. Lets do this.

[Ryan138]

I'll take it nobs, jut for shits and giggles

[big joe 1212]

This will probably be graded no action if it hits.

They will cry "bad line"

[nobs]

Ok Ryan its on. Please send me back 18 if you lose. Good luck

[stevenash]

I'm non pro, 2 is all I can do.

[yisman]

Thanks, I took a shot with this.


nobs, I would also take that bet.

[Ryan138]

Good luck!

[nobs]

Sorry Yisman and Steve. The rest of my points are in the book or posted up with Dax as I bet the game under 8 1/2. Just doing the 13 for 5 to make this interesting. I wish they would start the game. Good luck Ryan.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

5Dimes is offering
FIRST 3-2 PITCH COUNT FOULED OFF +170
NOT FOULED OFF -230

OK, I've been betting people at the sports bar beers, drinks, sawbucks even money on the first pitch of a 3-2 count being fouled off.

Stats INC has a data base full of such information, going back to 1980 the odds of the first 3-2 pitch being fouled off is 6:5 in your favor, -120, 30 years of recent data proves this.

5D has +170 on a -120 prop bet.

I'm not suggesting going all in on a silly prop bet, I'm not even suggesting you bet it, I am saying you can get +170 on a -120 wager.

nice info nash ty gl

[stevenash]

Sorry Yisman and Steve. The rest of my points are in the book or posted up with Dax as I bet the game under 8 1/2. Just doing the 13 for 5 to make this interesting. I wish they would start the game. Good luck Ryan.

I'm on the under hard myself.

g/l to all

[blanda]

I have no homeruns tonight +1000...

[Ryan138]

Nobs, I may or may not be able to send the points right away as I got to leave the house in like 15 minutes. I thought it was a 7:25 start geez! If I'm not around just let me know who wins and I'll send ya the points.

[yisman]

no homers is +1000? wow

considering how low the total is...

[wquine]

impossible to have accurate data on this, but you maybe right that +170 is good ev, but wouldn't 5D have researched it to even have this prop??

[face]

winner. matt holiday. 3-2 fouled off

[yisman]

I think this is a winner!

[Emily_Haines]

xWINNER

[BigDan]

was that the 1st 3-2 count with Holliday? if so nice bet...

[Ryan138]

Well there we go, nice mr. Nash