Heads up on a prop bet

[Pew Pew]

Wow good call.

[Pew Pew]

And my no run in the 2nd hits

[rm18]

a caught stealing was another big + $ that came in there

[stevenash]

It was -120 through from 1980-2010, the data was for all 3-2 counts the next pitch *after* the count reached 3-2 is fouled.

t/y all, glad to help

[Boscoe]

Great prop here. Nice hit

[thenatti]

WTF...5dimes graded mine as a loss? Anyone else have this problem?

[Emily_Haines]

WTF...5dimes graded mine as a loss? Anyone else have this problem?

Yes

83640318-1
7/12/11 5:46pm
$11.37$19.33$0.00Loss
7/12/11 8:20pm Props Baseball
6243 First 3-2 pitch is fouled off +170* vs First 3-2 pitch of game not fouled off (Fixed Price)

[thenatti]

Just looked back at the play by play...pitch by pitch...not understanding why it was graded incorrectly?

[justwinthisone]

They will fix it if it's a winner

[stevenash]

On hold with CS now

[stevenash]

83639365-1 7/12/11 5:32pm $100.00 $170.00 $0.00 Loss 7/12/11 8:20pm Props Baseball 6243 First 3-2 pitch is fouled off +170* vs First 3-2 pitch of game not fouled off (Fixed Price)

[stevenash]

OK, CS says they use their data (whatever that means) give them 10 minutes

[nobs]

Nice hit Ryan.

I have the under 8 1/2.

Looking good until the 4th.

[stevenash]

That tag out just might have saved the under.

[nobs]

not looking too good anymore though

[face]

the 3-2 was a loser? i thought i saw matt holliday foul one off

[stevenash]

the 3-2 was a loser? i thought i saw matt holliday foul one off

It's a winner, graded as a loser, I notified them, they are on it.

Tony is good to me regardless of what others think,

[Tech N9ne]

5Dimes will say it was a bad line, Tony is a bitch

[nobs]

If he does, I hope the board pounds him.

Nice call Steve. the +170 hit.

I am just hoping to hit my under 8 1/2 bet with Dax.

[nobs]

Brandon League is in. The under is toast now

[nobs]

Brandon League sucks. How the hell this guy made the all star team I will never know.

[stevenash]

Melisa in CS passed me off to 'Tony' he correct it.
You guys want to see the transcript?

You guys should be all set too.

For some reason that guy loves me.

[face]

yea it's fixed, thanks man

[yisman]

Bobby Valentine just said that a guy he knows in a bar claims 3-2 pitches are fouled off over 80% of the time.

Almost certainly wrong, but I bet it's over 60%.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Ha I heard that too on ESPN.....no way it's 80%......They said 4 of 6 at the time in the Rays- Sox game was fouled off on 3-2

[stevenash]

56 percent
Trust me, I'm a numbers freak, the numbers I have access to go back to 1980, I researched it, my buddy Brandon Warne who works for fangraphs.com backed me up, it's more or less 6:5 in your favor if you bet it at even money when the count first reaches 3-2, the next pitch will be fouled off, not every pitch after that, just the first pitch when the count reaches 3-2.

I have been winning side bets on that prop for years.

(I have access to all sorts of remote stats like that one)

[samgurt]

do they post that prop at books often?

[stevenash]

do they post that prop at books often?

No, I bet drinks at the sports bar and such on that, sometimes I'll say to the guy next to me, "I'll bet you next round the next pitch is fouled off", that sort of thing.

[aggieshawn]

Depends on the situation. If the pitcher is tight then it will be a ball. If it is a nothing situation then it will be fouled off.

[yisman]

Anytime Bobby V notices a foul ball on 3-2, he brings it up again.

He just stated definitively that the first 3-2 pitch is fouled off 77% of the time.

I'd bet big that the number is wrong.

[yisman]

One of the other guys in the booth just said he thinks it's higher than 77%.

Yeah, because Bobby V mentions it whenever it happens and ignores it otherwise, it means it's higher. These guys don't watch enough baseball.

[stevenash]

They are wrong, would you like me to post the link from stats inc and the elias people that have the data that proves it's 56 percent?

[yisman]

No, I know they're wrong. I'm just laughing at them.

As you can see, I pointed that out that Valentine only brings it up when it happens. Based on that, I guess it happens 100% of the time. The Sunday Night Baseball announcers are not terribly bright.

[lolguy999]

good hit nash, post your headups more often please!

[LineKrusher]

Interesting info, but isn't there something else to pick today with a little higher probability?