Fed vs Nadal Line?

[LT Profits]

donjuan,

I rarely lay over -130 on anything. I'll live longer that way.

Don't hate me for it!

In all honesty, I just think the bigger the favorite, the harder it is to find a decided edge on the side/player. Then again, I am a dog player by nature, so I may be a tad bias. Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

[mathdotcom]

Nadal to win in straight sets is +110 at betcris.com

Im on it

[pimike]

Fed is capable of beating Nadal on clay and knowledgable tennis fans know he is the second best clay court player in the world. In fact, he's beat Nadal on clay before (Hamburg 2007). Relatively speaking, Federer has the best shot of anyone on tour of beating Nadal on clay and at Roland Garros. This year alone, they've met twice on clay: Monte Carlo and Hamburg.

Despite Nadal's 2-0 wins in each match, anyone who watched either those two matches knows that Federer self-destructed by his own doing. At the very least, each match should have gone 3 sets. At +300 odds for maybe the best player that tennis has ever seen is tempting enough but there is no denying that Nadal is superman at Roland Garros. Let's see where the line goes and I'll go from there.

I expect Nadal to get steamed. There may be opportunities with some prop betting and set betting. One correlation is apparent. If you like Federer you should also like the over in this match (O/U 39) unless of course Fed wins 3-0. You can see both money on Nadal and the under coming in. Looks like many expect an easy Nadal victory. All it takes though for this match to go over is for Federer to win one set.....

I'm on fed + 290 lets prove once and for all he is the best

[SBR Lou]

This is a good post supporting Fed, not too heavy on the technical side but it's reasoning I can accept. This was made by poster Don933 at tennis insights.

Federer is one of the greatest players in tennis history. He won all major masters and grand slams, he has been number one for a record of 227 consecutive weeks and he holds many other records. There is only one more thing left to do, to win French Open. I think Federer does not want to be remembered as one of the greatest players who never won French and actually in order to be greatest in my opinion player has to win all four grand slams. Federer is not getting any younger and Djoko and Nadal are getting stronger so I think this might be his last chance to complete the circle. Federer is going to give all his got and his motivation level will be highest since he started to play tennis. My prediction is Fedrer 3-1 in sets and I am 90% confident.

[BuddyBear]

I wouldn't rush with betting Fed just yet. I don't think many of you realize just how dominant Nadal is on clay. It's like a NBA team playing a high school team most times. The reality is FED is the greatest player (most likely)...but Nadal and Feder and clay don't mix very well for Fed. They've played 9 times on Clay and Nadal has won 8 times. Fed is capable but it's a long shot. I'd put Fed's shot at about 12%-15% tomorrow to be perfectly honest.

Like I said, if you think FED will come out and play great tomorrow....then consider the over. I would say FED and the over is a very very very very strong correlation. If Fed is going to win tomorrow he is going to have to do it more than 3 sets which makes the over 38.5 an almost guarantee. That's probably what I will be playing.

Good luck!

[SBR Lou]

I wouldn't rush with betting Fed just yet. I don't think many of you realize just how dominant Nadal is on clay. It's like a NBA team playing a high school team most times. The reality is FED is the greatest player (most likely)...but Nadal and Feder and clay don't mix very well for Fed. They've played 9 times on Clay and Nadal has won 8 times. Fed is capable but it's a long shot. I'd put Fed's shot at about 12%-15% tomorrow to be perfectly honest.

Like I said, if you think FED will come out and play great tomorrow....then consider the over. I would say FED and the over is a very very very very strong correlation. If Fed is going to win tomorrow he is going to have to do it more than 3 sets which makes the over 38.5 an almost guarantee. That's probably what I will be playing.

Good luck!

I laid a bit on Rafa in semis so I do trust and respect his play on clay, he is the best in the world on it and has had Fed's # particularly in this tournament.

I just think this is a spot where you probably find more value in the dog at this price, how often will we see Roger at these odds? The conventional wisdom is yes he could pull it off, but only if he was playing his best, and admittedly Roger has not been playing his best lately. However, if he really is the best tennis has ever seen as many believe, I think the value is there in trusting he'll come out and deliver a performance of the ages.

That being said, there's little to absolutely no chance that if he should win, that it would be in straight sets. I think betting on a TB to be played has value as well as the over you cited, but the price is just too much IMO to back Rafa even with his surreal 27-0 at French Open.

[Francis Sollozzo]

boys , if Fed was 100% on top of gm Nadal would still be fav

Rafa may be at his professional peak on clay and Fed is around 85%

This match is as close to a 'fix' as you'll ever find , IMHO of course

[SBR Lou]

boys , if Fed was 100% on top of gm Nadal would still be fav

Of course, H2H play as well as Rafa's dominance over the French Open would dictate that. But the point is what if a perfect Fed shows up, how much can Rafa allow his game to slip before he loses in 4 or 5?

[Francis Sollozzo]

Of course, H2H play as well as Rafa's dominance over the French Open would dictate that. But the point is what if a perfect Fed shows up, how much can Rafa allow his game to slip before he loses in 4 or 5?

i read what you wrote several times. what indications do you have that would happen? of course anything is possible!

Rafa hasnt faulted this week and Fed was a bit lucky to get past his semi

[Francis Sollozzo]

i read what you wrote several times. what indications do you have that would happen? of course anything is possible!

Rafa hasnt faulted this week and Fed was a bit lucky to get past his semi

wanted to add , Rafa has Fed's number on clay. its a mental thing

[Wheell]

I am backing Rafa for 2 units. This simply isn't a fair fight sand people have an inflated image of Federer. Nadal might lose but Nadal is the best clay court player of his generation and it isn't close. It isn't just the 27-0 at Roland Garros. I can't think of a single loss on clay he suffered that couldn't be explained by injury or exhaustion. Rafa is the sharp side here.

[SBR Lou]

i read what you wrote several times. what indications do you have that would happen? of course anything is possible!

Rafa hasnt faulted this week and Fed was a bit lucky to get past his semi

You are correct, and yes if I were to go strictly based on performances up to this point I'd back Rafa. Fed does have a chip on his shoulder and it's in his head, so if he is a true champion I expect a fitting performance this time around.

Gun to my head, Rafa wins in a close, respectable game, I just think there's more value at Fed's odds to finally get one done at this stage and soil that 27-0 record. This will not be a walk through park like the womens finals.

[Wheell]

The women's final was fairly competitive, Ana just won a lot of the close games.

As for the men's final if they played 100 matches do you really think Federer wins 25? I can't find any way to justify that given their current success rate on clay.

[rake922]

10 star play

[Francis Sollozzo]

Rafa has Fed's number on clay. its a mental thing

[jjgold]

Line was wrong, it should of been -800 or so

Fed will never beat him, never and he is lucky to win one set when they play.