How about Raffy -800, he is that much better on clay.
Fed has ZERO shot again.
Fed has ZERO shot again.
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Yes ... very true ... looking at both games 2day ... gives me a big reason to lay big on RafaelComment -
um...let Fed GET there first!Comment -
he willComment -
If this goes to a fifth set, Fed loses todayComment -
Monfils just survived double match point to get to 5-5Comment -
exactly. tied 5-5 in the 4thOriginally posted by LT ProfitsComment -
raf has been about -350 the past 2 yrs over fed in the final, so i don't see it being higher than -500 this yr, and yes i agree, fed has little chance, but more than zero chance for sure, anything can happen when you least expect it (giants over the pats), ahemOriginally posted by jjgoldComment -
its over. i'll say raf is -550 over fedComment -
NOW, that is way too high hoopster.
Nadal -280.Comment -
lt, it was -350 or higher the past 2 yrs, or at least last yr it was, perhaps -325 in '06. someone needs to look that up. nadal in same incredible form as the past 3 yrs that he won, and fed slipped this yr, the odds people know this, i think rafa will be the biggest fave he has ever been over federer,Originally posted by LT Profits
mark that down. -550 or thereaboutsComment -
I see a -320 on NadalComment -
I have to say -300 seems apt to me. Federer is still very good, but Nadal is still the master on Clay.Comment -
I was closer, ha ha!
It couldn't bet that high hoopster because Nadal was only -425 over Djokavich, so it had to be less vs. Federer.Comment -
And hoopster is right that Nadal may have value even at -350, but I won't bet it.Comment -
Backing Nadal isn't exactly going out on a limb, but I don't see Fed beating him. Nadal simply owns the French Open, isn't he about 27-0 now in it?Comment -
Yeah bet I can't lay -320 just on principle alone.Comment -
like on previous post ... I believe it will hit the -320 ... if it does ... I may take a shot at it ... or anything lower to that.Comment -
3 sets
nadal -190
Guys this is going to be a route, Fed looked pitiful todayComment -
he won in 4 sets over a local kid that is long and wiry with a big serve, a big forehand, and it was on clay. this fed looked pitiful talk is crazy!Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
I think chalk wins both men and womens finals.Comment -
Chalk is very hard to beat in tennis when you get to late roundsComment -
Agree, better to take dogs earlier rounds for the most part.Originally posted by jjgold
Are you making a play on the womens finals?
Safina vs Ivanovic
Ivanovic -230 or so..Comment -
Safina has brought a lot of energy for the tourney ... she may pull it off.Comment -
Yeah she might, personally I think her run is up. Maybe if Jankovic advanced she'd get past her, but I think Ana was really tested last round after breezing through so far, and I think Safina for the most part has been very fortunate.Originally posted by Shark79
True Svetlanta played like ass and Safina just nailed her, but the prior few rounds she escaped match points and rallied, never really taking command throughout and I don't know that she can dictate against Ana's power.Comment -
Ana has the stronger serve .... but as you mention ... Safina has had luck ... and that plays a big part ...Comment -
-240 or whatever you can get on ivanovic may not seem like value but it is.this is an enormous chance for ana to win a major. she will be pumped to win this .Comment -
The Fed express wins here, He finally comes through. I got him at +290. I'll take it. Lets go.
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We disagree again Panic, but at least we are not BETTING against each other this time since I am passing, so I'll "let" Fed win for you.
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I'm on Rafa. He's playing much better than Fed right now.Comment -
tennis who caresComment -
How can Fed win more than one set?Comment -
Principle of not liking money or what?Yeah bet I can't lay -320 just on principle alone.Comment -
Fed is capable of beating Nadal on clay and knowledgable tennis fans know he is the second best clay court player in the world. In fact, he's beat Nadal on clay before (Hamburg 2007). Relatively speaking, Federer has the best shot of anyone on tour of beating Nadal on clay and at Roland Garros. This year alone, they've met twice on clay: Monte Carlo and Hamburg.
Despite Nadal's 2-0 wins in each match, anyone who watched either those two matches knows that Federer self-destructed by his own doing. At the very least, each match should have gone 3 sets. At +300 odds for maybe the best player that tennis has ever seen is tempting enough but there is no denying that Nadal is superman at Roland Garros. Let's see where the line goes and I'll go from there.
I expect Nadal to get steamed. There may be opportunities with some prop betting and set betting. One correlation is apparent. If you like Federer you should also like the over in this match (O/U 39) unless of course Fed wins 3-0. You can see both money on Nadal and the under coming in. Looks like many expect an easy Nadal victory. All it takes though for this match to go over is for Federer to win one set.....Comment -
I estimate 3 sets 45.7% of the time, 4 sets 34% of the time and 5 sets 20.3% of the time. I have Rafa winning a little more than 7 out of 9 times. Rafa was exhausted in Hamburg. I have plenty of respect for Federer but not only is Nadal better than him on clay, but the matchup is stylistically bad for Federer. I am not saying people who bet on Federer are nuts but I think Rafa is the right side.Comment
