Ganchrow ? help with math problem

Richkas · 06-02-08, 12:36 PM

Ill guess 128/1

Nicky Santoro · 06-02-08, 12:39 PM

richie got it right

1 in 128

OR 127/1..

Nicky Santoro · 06-02-08, 12:41 PM

also chippy,

that is assuming all games are pick em..

if they are all -200's and -180, then you might be looking at about a 18/1 shot..

chipski · 06-02-08, 12:52 PM

127 different combos huh . that's why i got tired of writting them all down . that is alot of combintaions to come up with the exact right one huh .
i found a way to do it that is pretty good . to me it is almost like info that someone might kill for . but then again i may be delerious or in fantasy land , not sure which yet . but i did nail the al like i am talking about on 7 team parlay 3 times already (3 different days) on a posted thread here .
i guess it is not info to kill for as the majprity would fall short for a loss , and have 6 - 1 s and 5 - 2s for a total bust for said calendar day .

if you are interested in the way i went 7 - 0 three times on 4 attempts on 4 different calendar days the thread is called BEST OF SERIES in the mlb section .

is interesting if not info to kill for . lol

my strategy on that thread is dealing with nailing the al board 7 - 0 for said calendar day by doing 10 - 15 seven team parlays on a calendar day .... anticipating/predicting the final fav/dog result in the al for said day and going for it .

i am 3 for 4 with it so far and it is documented on the thread best of series .
this wont bring me bad luck for sharing it i hope . lmao

well , now nobody has to kill me to get the information , its out .

Justin7 · 06-02-08, 12:52 PM

If you know the odds for 7 independent events, the odds of all 7 occurring is figured out by simply multiplying the odds of each.

If each is Pk, or 50%, it would be (0.50) ^ 7, or 1 in 128 as Richkas stated.

What if you bet all -200 favorites? Assume the no-vig line is -190 (which is not perfect, but simplifies the problem).

The odds of winning each game are then 190/(190 + 100) = 0.655

So the odds of winning 7 in a row of those are (0.655) ^ 7 = 0.0.52, or about 1 in 20.

Nicky Santoro · 06-02-08, 01:00 PM

justy,

you're going to scare the poor kid with your math.. what's with the upside down v's?

just do it my way chippy.. it's easier..

chippy, if you want to know the odds of going 7 in a row, just do this..

2x2x2x2x2x2x2

multiply this 7x for 7 games.. it's 1/128...

chipski · 06-02-08, 01:01 PM

sweet ! thanks . as far as the big fav thing you guys talk about > the odds would never all be close to -200 for one day in the american leauge . in mlb we can say with confidence that there truly is no such thing as a fav really .. > the odds will show this pretty much .
but yeah , the high odds does throw a wrinkle in it no doubt .
lesser payout going 7 - 0 on a parlay . still can be huge though .

MrX · 06-02-08, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by chipski

in mlb we can say with confidence that there truly is no such thing as a fav really

Maybe you can say that with confidence. I don't know about we.

Nicky Santoro · 06-02-08, 01:09 PM

chippy is right in a way... baseball is the ONLY sport that anyone can actually beat anyone by any margin on any given game.

you NEVER see Jets win 35-3 in NE.

you NEVER see Clippers win 118-87 in Lakers

you NEVER see red wings lose at home to columbus 8-1

but you do see many many many times a year Yankees lose 18-2 to a crappy team..

In 2005, Cleveland beat the Yankees in NY something like 22-2 and NYY were -240..

this happens 20 games a year when a -250 fav lose by 12 runs.. baseball is crazy.

chipski · 06-02-08, 01:51 PM

sharing hoping someone learns something

Originally posted by MrX

Maybe you can say that with confidence. I don't know about we.

yeah i say it with more than confidence . the favs lose every day in baseball and it is a normal occurence .
how many players are there on a baseball team that influence the outcome ?
did they tell the home platE umpire that it was a -200 game ? sure doesn't look like it as the dog is winning 5 - 2 in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2 outs and the fans heading for the exits . YEAR AFTER YEAR , DAY AFTER DAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DIG YOURSELF .

i have tracked the mlb every day for around 18 years now .
i see the biggest fav on the board in mlb lose all the time , is normal .
the biggest fav on the board lost on thurs and friday that just passed >>> dbacks at home no good -210 , -182 . BACK TO BACK , GET IT ? LMAO

but we are not even talking about the biggest fav on the board for a given night . that's another category in itself .
we are talking about normal occurences in the mlb . THERE IS NO FRICKEN SUCH THING AS A FAV ON THE BOARD .
THE GAME IS A GAME OF INCHES AND THERE ARE TOO MANY FACTORS THAT DECIDE THE OUTCOME (OVERALL) TO SAY A TEAM SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIG OR EVEN A LITTLE FAVORITE .

THE FAV / DOG IS PURELY FOR REASONS THAT ONLY THE WISE CAN SEE THROUGH .
FOR #S PURPOSES SO WE CAN BET .

BOTTOM LINE LIKE NICKY SAID > DOGS CAN WIN JUST LIKE THE FAV WINS AND IT IS NO SURPRISE COMPARED TO THE NFL AND NBA EXAMPLES HE GAVE .

because a fav wins said game we have a million reasons why
there is such a thing as a fav . but if you can read between the lines you would understand the concept that there really is no such thing as a fav and someone should never ever ever bet the ml on a -200 or greater game on a single wager in mlb no matter how good it looks .
rookies do this as i came into the game doing this long before you AND THE MAJORITY ON HERE ever thought about betting sports > most likely .

JUST THE FACTS NO OFFENSE .

Nicky Santoro · 06-02-08, 02:05 PM

you know why dogs win more often in bases chippy??

that's because the biggest fav you find everyday in bases is usually -185 to -200? 80% of the games are between -110 and -160.. it's hard to have a big fav in baseball like other sports.

when lakers are at home to clippers, lakers could easily be -1300..

when NE is home to Jets, NE is probably -1200 to win..

When red wings at home to Columbus, DET is -400 or more.

But when Redsox home to royals, even with a great pitcher for BOS, they are ONLY -230..

there's NEVER a big fav in baseball like other sports, which is the reason why everyone beats everyone in bases.

MrX · 06-02-08, 02:05 PM

All you really said in that rant is that there are no guaranteed winners in MLB. If you had said that in the first place we could have agreed.

But if you really believe there are no favorites then just bet every game offered at plus odds and you'll make a fortune.

chipski · 06-02-08, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by MrX

All you really said in that rant is that there are no guaranteed winners in MLB. If you had said that in the first place we could have agreed.

But if you really believe there are no favorites then just bet every game offered at plus odds and you'll make a fortune.

was no rant at all . was simple common sense .
no such thing as a fav and no guaranteed winners would
cross lines having the same meaning .
your feedback was neither here nor there .
i dont rant .
i type big so maybe someone will learn something that they didn't know .
or if they already did know then it is a reminder .
all for the good of my common man . nothing else .
someone with great intentions doesn't rant .
when people like you try and curb the concept on a given subject/thread adding NO VALUE to the brainstorm , therein lies the static .
why someone would rant that is a wise soul trying to pass along something good is the funniest most twisted shi! concept to date . what is crazier than that ?
strange mo fos on this bitch . lol

your bs worked though it put me on the defensive and sidetracked me for a second .

keep coming back .

MrX · 06-02-08, 02:22 PM

Anyone who had to ask the question you did in original post isn't exactly in the best position to be doing the educating.

chipski · 06-02-08, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by MrX

Anyone who had to ask the question you did in original post isn't exactly in the best position to be doing the educating.

i was asking to put the info out there and bring attention to
how easy it can be to sweep the american leauge board as i have done it 3 times on a thread here at sbr .
i know how many combos there are with every set # of teams ... was trying to be humble .

lets see you or anyone else here go 7 - 0 in 3 out of 4 trys on 4 calendar days .
there is really no authentic negative feedback you can further give to offset something great .
the fact is i am a beast and always have been and always will be .
the end . so much for being humble . thanks for your time stranger . and gl

HedgeHog · 06-02-08, 02:49 PM

1 in 128 is correct at a pick price. But put all dogs in that 7 teamer and watch those odds go to 400-1 or 500-1, depending on the prices. For example, average say +140 per play and your parlay is at better than 450-1.

MrX · 06-02-08, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

1 in 128 is correct at a pick price. But put all dogs in that 7 teamer and watch those odds go to 400-1 or 500-1, depending on the prices. For example, average say +140 per play and your parlay is at better than 450-1.

Which is obviously the way to play it since there aren't really any favs in baseball anyway.

HedgeHog · 06-02-08, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by MrX

Which is obviously the way to play it since there aren't really any favs in baseball anyway.

Well you won't lose any sleep when that Dog parlay goes 3-4 or 2-5. It's the favorite parlay at say 50-1 that just misses with one loss which will keep you awake at nights.