Someone take a stab at the series price.

[Panic]

There is no question the Lakers will be favored by AT LEAST -160 (although I say it will be -180/+160), and anyone that thinks Boston will be favored in the series should quit gambling right now.

Then I should quit, LT. I'll be the first to admit. I'm rolling the heaviest on this series, getting Boston +money, that I have the entire post season. We'll see what happens....Quick question though, if Boston wins the series, should I come back and say that anyone who went against them at + money should give up gambling?

[LT Profits]

Panic,

We are talking about two different things. I am saying what the PRICE will be, not who is going to WIN. Even I would admit that Boston at +150 or more looks tempting, although I am staying away because I am picking Lakers in 5 but don't want to lay that juice.

I think the best course of action would be to play Lakers ML in Game 1, and if they lose play Lakers ML Game 2 for an extra 1% of BR. That (those) may be my only Side bets of entire series, although Totals are always a possibility throughout.

[Panic]

Panic,

We are talking about two different things. I am saying what the PRICE will be, not who is going to WIN. Even I would admit that Boston at +150 or more looks tempting, although I am staying away because I am picking Lakers in 5 but don't want to lay that juice.

I think the best course of action would be to play Lakers ML in Game 1, and if they lose play Lakers ML Game 2 for an extra 1% of BR in Game 2. That (those) may be my only Side bets of entire series, although Totals are always a possibility throughout.

With ya. But your first post made it seem like it was asinine to even consider the Celtics to be favored in this series. I happen to disagree there, but it helps me in my series selection, so all is good. Just a difference of opinion. Me personally, I think the Celtics win this in 6.

[LT Profits]

No, not assenine at all to pick Celtics to win. Just ludicrous to expect them to be favored when implied odds based on Futures have Lakers favored so heavily.

[Panic]

No, not assenine at all to pick Celtics to win. Just ludicrous to expect them to be favored when implied odds based on Futures have Lakers favored so heavily.

Which makes no sense at all. The team with the best record against the West was the Celtics this year. They have homecourt. They have just won 2 out of the last 3 games on the road against a 59 win Detroit team. And they have found their 4th work horse in Perkins. To favor the Lakers here, to me, is a Godsend(as I stated in a different thread). But thats why they call it gambling. At the end, either I look like a genius or a fool. It wont be the first time, and it wont be the last.

[LT Profits]

So you simply disagree with the market, which being an underdog player myself, I could relate to!

[Panic]

So you simply disagree with the market, which being an underdog player myself, I could relate to!

Exactly. Demented minds think alike.

[donjuan]

But your first post made it seem like it was asinine to even consider the Celtics to be favored in this series.

Anyone who thinks the Celtics should be favored is a moron. And when citing stats feel free to mention Lakers before and after the Gasol trade.

[Panic]

Anyone who thinks the Celtics should be favored is a moron. And when citing stats feel free to mention Lakers before and after the Gasol trade.

Nice to see you forming sentences, don juan. Its only a matter of time before you are able to walk upright.

[donjuan]

Nice to see you forming sentences, don juan. Its only a matter of time before you are able to walk upright.

I'll give you Celtics +110 for as much as you can handle. Sound good?

[Panic]

I'll give you Celtics +110 for as much as you can handle. Sound good?

[donjuan]

View Post
Goddamn. Some would think you guys have never gambled in your lives. Here will be the opening of the series price for both situations.

Boston:-160
Detroit:-120

The Lakers will not be a favorite in either situation. Ecspecially with the dominance of the home team throughout the playoffs. Good Luck, guys.

So was this just some drunken rambling or a look inside the head of an arrogant mental midget?

[Panic]

So was this just some drunken rambling or a look inside the head of an arrogant mental midget?

[donjuan]

I'm going with the latter.

[Panic]

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[DrunkenLullaby]

Goddamn. Some would think you guys have never gambled in your lives. Here will be the opening of the series price for both situations.

Boston:-160
Detroit:-120

The Lakers will not be a favorite in either situation. Ecspecially with the dominance of the home team throughout the playoffs. Good Luck, guys.

I would nominate this for post of the year. However, since I have apparently never gambled in my life, I suppose I'm not on the nominating committee.

P.S. Did Nicky fall off a cliff or something? I'm desperately awaiting his and/or Spiro's explanation that the difference between a Celts 8 point win and a Celts double digit win would have meant a 70-80 cent change in the Finals series price.

[Nicky Santoro]

hey drunky,


where were you today? do you still wanna bet i spoke to spiros today? I see you chickened out... i said if BOS won by 16 and blew them out totally, then they'd be the fav.. and that is a fact. so do you wanna put up some money on it? you seem to be a wiseass.. i dont like wiseasses, drunky..


drunky, i already got BOS at +178 at matchy.. that line will only be going down from there because that line is way off.. the only thing drunky, is that i did something illegal today.. i just hope i dont arrested for stealing, because that line is a steal..

no way should bos be +178.. btw, they are now down to +150 at matchy.. people are realizing that the only reason the lakes are favored is because books know that everyone and their grandmas will be betting lakers. +178 is a steal. even +160 is steal for the team with home court and the best record in teh NBA, by far.


this will be fun.. i might even scalp it and get myself a nice juicy profit. not sure yet.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Wow, so you really DO still believe that another 8 meaningless points in tonight's winning margin would have translated into a 75 cent move in the Series line?

I gotta hand it to you man, no one could ever accuse you of not sticking to your guns.

However, the fact remains that with the obvious exception of Panic

[Nicky Santoro]

drunky,


i will challenge you for money on every NBA game this series. from game 1 to a possible game 7.. we both predict the lines and totals.. and whoever comes closest, gets the cash.. and i want to include NHL playoffs too..

we both send our money to ranch, and whoever is closest, gets the cash.. 500 per game.

i want to once and for all put you in your seat. i want to humiliate you in front of everyone here. i will even give you 3/2 on every guess..


if you really think that LAL -160 is the real line, then you are a bigger square than i thought. if you dont think that BOS +150 is a good value bet, then you are a big time clueless guy.

[DrunkenLullaby]

The debate was, as you & Panic seem to have a hard time understanding (while no-one else does) not whether LA SHOULD be favored to win, but whether they WOULD be favored to win. I happen to love Boston at the plus price as well as you & Panic. But there was absolutely never the slightest chance (from when this thread was started) that Boston WOULD be posted as the favorite by the books. Capisce?

...and as far as humiliation goes, you've done a fine job of that yourself. I wouldn't want to challenge you.

[Nicky Santoro]

you're scared i might embarass you huh? If you ever want to challenge me on making upcoming lines, let me know drunky..

will you challenge me?

NO -850
YES +770


later..

[DrunkenLullaby]

you're scared i might embarass you huh? If you ever want to challenge me on making upcoming lines, let me know drunky..

will you challenge me?

NO -850
YES +770


later..

Yes indeed, you found me out. I am petrified of challenging somebody who thought Boston would be installed as favorite despite knowledge of Pinny listing LA at -190 at the time.

Unfortunately for you, I have never gambled in my entire life (because if Panic says it, it must be true) so now is no time for me to start - particularly against the likes of the grizzled veteran linesmaker Nicky "Roxy" Santuaro.

[Nicky Santoro]

well, if pinny had it at -190, then they are clueless, because it is now -150, and who knows where it will end.

so i guess that makes me smarter than pinny because the line is way off at -190 as you see, as it is -150 now. i guess people are realizing that line is not right..


i've been gambling way before you were probably born, drunky.. unless you're over 30 yrs old, which i doubt. i was the high school bookmaker.. i was handing out parlay cards and made my own lines in NFL. i know how to make lines drunky, and that line on LAL is way off.. that line should be pick em at worst.. and it might even close at that, who knows.. it's already moved 40 cents on the LAL, so i guess i had to have been right by saying that BOS has good value because that price on LAL was too high.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Nicky, Nicky, Nicky. Pinny never had LA at -190 against Boston. They had LA at -190 vs whoever came out of the East. To those of us who understand the math, that meant that they would be something < -190 against Boston and something > -190 in the rare event they played Detroit.

But since I can't seem to get through to you that I never necessarily thought that LA SHOULD be favored, only that they WOULD be favored, then taking on the above topic would be like trying to teach topology to a USC cheerleader, and I'm way too tired for that.

At least this thread has taught me some things though. Before today I had not realized that I was somebody younger than 30 who had never gambled in my life. Now I know all these new things about myself thanks to the sage advice of you & Panic.

Good night & good luck.

[DrunkenLullaby]

well, if pinny had it at -190, then they are clueless, because it is now -150, and who knows where it will end.

so i guess that makes me smarter than pinny because the line is way off at -190 as you see, as it is -150 now. i guess people are realizing that line is not right..


i know how to make lines drunky, and that line on LAL is way off.. that line should be pick em at worst.. and it might even close at that, who knows.. it's already moved 40 cents on the LAL, so i guess i had to have been right by saying that BOS has good value because that price on LAL was too high.

NBA Championship Series Price
Thu 6/5 Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics
06:05 PM
1 Lakers -195
2 Celtics +179

[Nicky Santoro]

Hey drunky,

why am i even wasting my time with a clueless guy like you. you admitted you dont even gamble..

you say -195? that proves how dumb you are.. you can get -172 at matchy if you wanted.. now i know why you dont gamble.. dont ever gamble, save your money.. you'll be broke quickly..


when you laughed at me that i spoke to spiros, i offered you a 500 dollar bet i did, and you disappeared for 24 hrs.. get lost, man..

i dont want to waste my time with a deadbeat loser like you.. i have games to watch.. now take a hike before i call Alcoholic Anonymous and tell them this drunken guy is getting is clueless..