Somebody check on Fishhead, (Corn demand, prices fall)

[MartinBlank]

Now what?

I hope Fish unloaded his Corn futures. I am certain, he had this middled, right Fish?

ST. LOUIS – The fast rise in food prices could begin to taper off later this year.
The government's latest crop report estimates that the domestic supply of corn, which had been forecast to shrink, will grow in the months ahead. The Department of Agriculture report suggested the high price of corn is prompting ranchers and feed makers to use less and farmers to plant more.
Analysts expect these trends to push corn prices lower. And this could ultimately make everything from beef to cereal to soft drinks less expensive at the supermarket.
Corn prices fell sharply last week as part of a broader sell-off in commodities. On Wednesday, they dropped 30 cents, the maximum allowed in one day, to $6.77 a bushel.
The USDA estimates corn exports will drop by about 50 million bushels this summer. At the same time, farmers are planting more of it.
By late August, when the harvest begins, the USDA expects the nation's corn supply to be 730 million bushels, enough to satisfy demand for 20 days. That's an 8 percent increase from last month, when an 18-day supply was forecast by August. By 2012, the supply is forecast to grow to 900 million bushels, enough for 24 days. A 30-day supply is the level considered healthy by most investors.

[Fishhead]

I stated 2 months ago that CORN will in all liklihood decline into the 5.80ish range this summer..........

There is no panic whatsoever on this end.

[l7ustin]

keep buying more land fishhead corn is the future especially when population keeps going up and up

[Fishhead]

keep buying more land fishhead corn is the future especially when population keeps going up and up

Northeast Iowa farmland hits $10,000/acre
April 29, 2011 by Ken Anderson

No sign of a slowdown in skyrocketing farmland prices—at least not in northeast Iowa.

An 80 acre tract of crop ground about 12 miles north of Cedar Rapids sold this week for 9,025 dollars per acre. Three weeks ago, 80 acres in southern Mitchell County, Iowa brought 10,000 an acre.

Hertz Real Estate broker Troy Louwagie says both tracts were purchased by investors and were paid for with cash—and he says most of the people buying land are in a very good financial position.

“Guys that are buying it, they’re either buying with cash or buying with substantial land down—or good equity. Most of these buyers are holding it for the long term,” Louwagie says. “So even if we had a small correction, I don’t see anyone getting in trouble or being forced to sell.”

Louwagie thinks as long as commodity prices remain strong and interest rates remain low, land values will hold up well. But he says tighter crop margins going forward could slow the pace.

“That is one concern as we head through 2011. I think all the input costs—seed, fertilizer, herbicide costs—are all inching up,” he says. “So it will tighten up the margins a little bit—and that could slow things down a little bit.

Louwagie says a slight correction in the land market is possible, but he is not concerned that prices will crash.

Louwagie works out of Hertz’ Mt. Vernon office.

[boatboatboat]

$10,000 an acre does not cash flow.

No way.

No how.

My guess is they need the land for manure disposal.

[Fishhead]

$10,000 an acre does not cash flow.

No way.

No how.

My guess is they need the land for manure disposal.

What are you talking about???

Farmland is RENTING for $400 an acre in some areas.................

[boatboatboat]

What I am talking about is that $10,000 an acre simply will not cash flow.

[Fishhead]

What I am talking about is that $10,000 an acre simply will not cash flow.

Depends on many factors..............

Land appreciation
Corn/soybean prices
How one will manage the land.....(cashrent, share, farm)
Input costs


I do understand what you are saying though.

[boatboatboat]

Variable production costs in 2011 will be nearly $4/bu. for corn, $9.50 for soybeans and $6 for wheat according to the Purdue economists


Now let's assume you have 10k in an acre, you COULD invest the 10 and sit back and do nothing or go get a job in town while your money is working for you , or if you have a loan on the 10k it is costing you 400 a year in intrest alone. All the while it is COSTING 4 dollars a bushell just to plant the damn corn.

It doesn't cash flow.

People buying land at these prices will regret it within the next 5 years. Corn prices won't stay at there current price points.

[Fishhead]

240 acres Union county Iowa private treaty $10,000 acre. Bought by a 80+ year old local farmer, paid cash. Located about 6 miles SW of Creston,Ia on the north side of Hwy 34.

[MartinBlank]

I stated 2 months ago that CORN will in all liklihood decline into the 5.80ish range this summer..........

There is no panic whatsoever on this end.

Really? Because on April 28th (2 weeks ago), you created a thread touting the purchasing of Corn.

In fact, you titled the thread, "If you missed Silver, Corn could be the next breakout"

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1054434-if-you-missed-silver-corn-could-next-breakout.html

[Fishhead]

Really? Because on April 28th (2 weeks ago), you created a thread touting the purchasing of Corn.

In fact, you titled the thread, "If you missed Silver, Corn could be the next breakout"

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-breakout.html

That was an article by NESTO from CNBC........not my thoughts.

[boatboatboat]

We had a chance to cash rent some extra ground this year (about 60 acres) pretty close to us, so the distance wasn't much of an issue. Average land, has a few low spots, but nothing major. Nice square fields (easy to plant and harvest), road frontage (easy to haul grain out), 3 miles from elevator (so that wasn't an issue).

They wanted a 4 year contract at 275 an acre.

We turned it down. $275 works today, but on average over the last 10 years it wouldn't.

We based our numbers on 180 B/to the acre corn and 45 B/to the acre beans.

yes you may get 200 and 60....... but you may also get 140 and 30

[MartinBlank]

That was an article by NESTO from CNBC........not my thoughts.

I see, you were just posting it?

Yeah......you didn't really believe it------you just posted it?

Curious---why didn't you offer any kind of objection to that opinion IN YOUR POST?

[boatboatboat]

jesus he has $ to burn.

Dude must be LOADED!

[Fishhead]

jesus he has $ to burn.

Dude must be LOADED!

Agree, can't imagine what these individuals are thinkig paying 10,000 an acre..........even if the yield potential of the farm was the best in the state.....lol.


But then many were saying the samething about those that were paying $7300 an acre 2-3 years ago.


All in all, been a great run for the Iowa farmer/land investor the past 5-10 years, a helluva run in fact.

[Fishhead]

There is some really good support in the DEC CORN contract in the 6.20's.

For me personally, no worries until and if we go below 5.00.

[boatboatboat]

I bet if you look into it you will find there is livestock on other land they own, and they need additional acres to meet EPA standards.

[boatboatboat]

no worries until and if we go below 5.00.

We won't.

[yisman]

What I am talking about is that $10,000 an acre simply will not cash flow.

That's not what cash flow means.

[Fishhead]

I bet if you look into it you will find there is livestock on other land they own, and they need additional acres to meet EPA standards.

My brother just purchased 80 acres a couple months ago for 8,400 per acre..............he has no livestock.

[boatboatboat]

That's not what cash flow means.

please explain to me from an agriculture standpoint what cash flow does mean.

thanx

[boatboatboat]

My brother just purchased 80 acres a couple months ago for 8,400 per acre..............he has no livestock.

wow the debt service on that is 420 an acre.

[boatboatboat]

you guys have a good night.

Eye am going to go watch jjgold vids and do web searches on cory1111

[Fishhead]

you guys have a good night.

Eye am going to go watch jjgold vids and do web searches on cory1111

[yisman]

please explain to me from an agriculture standpoint what cash flow does mean.

thanx

Cash flow refers to the movement of cash, as liquid assets. It means the same thing in agriculture as it does in everything else.

I don't know what you mean, but saying something "does not cash flow" doesn't make any sense.

[Vikings2]

$10,000 a acre is a long term investment. It also depends how much money you put down for the land. No way it can cash flow even with high prices for corn and soybeans. Though if it's land near big dairy farms and swine operations you can get big money.

[boatboatboat]

cash moves out to buy land at 10k an acre (debt service)

cash moves in as crops are sold.

the amount that goes OUT is greater than the amount that flows IN.

IE: it doesn't cash flow.

[yisman]

That simply means you are in the red; that income does not meet outgo/expenses.

It doesn't mean it does or doesn't cash flow. Nothing does.

[Fishhead]

cash moves out to buy land at 10k an acre (debt service)

cash moves in as crops are sold.

the amount that goes OUT is greater than the amount that flows IN.

IE: it doesn't cash flow.

What if one rents that 10k per acre at 400 an acre minus property taxes and insurance..........??

[boatboatboat]

taxes on farm land are low, as are insurance for bare land. what the hell is going to happen to bare land, that needs insured? Crop insurance is another matter, you are insuring the crop, not the land.

once again, the debt service is more then the cash rent.

[cant call it]

I see, you were just posting it? Yeah......you didn't really believe it------you just posted it? Curious---why didn't you offer any kind of objection to that opinion IN YOUR POST?