Is there such a thing as a casual horse player who is +EV?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm talking a guy who takes off Friday once/month, bets $20/40 per race, and clears a profit each trip. Is it that unfathomable to think such a person exists?

[Reload]

As the saying goes, "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the -races-"

[gomiamigo]

Sure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Why not? You're telling me that some of the brightest minds at SBR couldn't form a +$ horse syndicate?

[str]

Casual once a month guy will not win long term.Just too many things against him .
The races CAN be beaten but the amount of time, effort and constant clear headed patience that it takes is very difficult for most.Per hour return is not as much as most would think.
Yes , a SBR syndicate could make money but that requires many moving parts. Since a fence is only as strong as it's weakest link,too many people would be put at risk without realizing the weakness within until it was too late IMO.

[cecil127]

Why not? You're telling me that some of the brightest minds at SBR couldn't form a +$ horse syndicate?

thats exactly what we're telling you.
tip: if you're going to give it a try dont go at it figuring you will wager every race. pick your races-it helps ward off the glazed over horse fever i see so many coming down with....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good info, Str.

[gregm]

When you go to a track or otb, you will see alot of older guys and I promise you, very few are out there for investments purposes only. Alot of people wager because they love horse racing, its an addiction and the greatest sport in the world to wager on and watch.

Nothing compares to the thrill of a horse race, nothing, but as an investment tool its an atrocious way to make money for the recreational or casual gambler.

This is a good article I read the other night , I dont agree with all the findings but its an interesting article on investing and gambling. Most article will rate horse right there with dogs and keno as sports with poor odds.

Quantitative betting and alot of that talk about looking looking for +even wagers in horse racing is not a topic discussed in alot of those sharp sports betting books but stanford wong did have a book on cheap claimers and he did have some great stuff but I would still stick to blackjack and if I were looking for apply alot of his concepts, the world of horse racing is so different than most sports wagering.

There are some great books out there to get started on horse racing but I have never read one that talked about casual gamblers using horse racing as a way to make money.

http://www.punters-paradise.com/betting-theory/best-sports.php

"It's tough enough chiseling out an edge over the bookies but have you ever wondered what sports can give you the edge? Doctor of Danger has. Take notes as he beckons you into his surgery of knowledge.

Most of us who bet on sports will bet on those sports closest to our heart - maybe the one(s) we have followed since childhood. Occasionally we might branch out later in life as our tastes change, or maybe as we follow somebody else's tips.
But is this really the best way to bet?



Most of us who bet on sports will bet on those sports closest to our heart - maybe the one(s) we have followed since childhood.
What factors should we consider when deciding which sports we want to bet on?



Punters' Paradise assembled some of its finest minds and put them to answering this question. Our panel had diverse technical, occupational and personal backgrounds, although most identified UK football as their current main betting focus.



The first thing to do was to look at what factors were important to consider in reaching such a decision. The collective wisdom was that following should be considered:



Integrity - can we trust that matches won't be fixed, or that insider information could affect our chances of winning?


• Number of Participating Teams/Players - Is there a manageable number of contestants whose form has to be tracked? We also need to consider the number of games/matches that take place, which will generally increase with the number of contestants



• Number of match-ups between participants - are there a large number of games that take place between individual participant pairs? This should help us to draw formlines more clearly, while also increasing the number of games available to bet on.



• Market Volume - is this a major sport with lots of money available, or are we going to have difficulty in placing/matching bets?
• Availability of Data - can we easily get the information we need to make our bets, or back-test any systems we may have?
• Integrity - can we trust that matches won't be fixed, or that insider information could affect our chances of winning?
• Time Gap between games - is there sufficient time for participants to recover between matches or is fatigue likely to be a factor? Is there a long time between games so that rustiness may be a factor?
• Uniformity of standard - can we generally assume that teams will treat each game equally, or are there other factors that may influence the participants' commitment?
• High Scoring - generally we would prefer a high/clear scoring system so that the nominally stronger participant's superiority is well reflected in the scoreline. This should see less variability in results, if we are good at predicting.
The next step was to ask our 7 strong team to individually assign a 'weight' to each of the above metrics
• Familiarity with sport - do we know much about the sport, or follow it closely so that we can include qualitative information in our assessment process, or recognise underlying reasons why offered prices might be out of line with our tissue prices?
The next step was to ask our 7 strong team to individually assign a 'weight' to each of the above metrics. We asked them to assign each of the above a number between 1 and 10, with 10 representing highest importance. The results were as follows:
Weighting (out of 10), Category

• 9.9, Availability of Data
  8.6, Integrity
  7.6, Uniformity of Standard
  7.1, Number of Participating Teams
  6.9, Number of match-ups between participants
  6.7, High Scoring
  6.1, Market Volume
  5.4, Familiarity with Sport
  2.4, Time Gap

There was a high degree of uniformity across the 7 respondents, with the only significant area of disagreement being 'Familiarity with Sport'.
Two members of the group (one a qualified mathematician, and the other a semi-professional punter felt that this was of little importance (presumably feeling that one could learn as they go!), while the rest felt it of moderate to strong importance (~7/10).
Interestingly enough the consensus was that market volume was not a key issue, although that probably reflects the reasonably modest stakes that this group are likely to be placing!



We now had a series of metrics and an idea of their importance relative to each other. The next stage was to ask the group to consider a shortlist of sports selected for consideration under the metrics defined above.



Again there was a high degree of uniformity in the responses, with the biggest differences emerging in the knowledge/familiarity each individual had with each of the shortlisted sports.



There was also some variation in opinion as to what constituted 'high-scoring'. The results of this process were:

• NFL 7.78
  NBA 7.71
  Soccer, domestic 7.24
  MLB 7.21
  NHL 6.62
  Motor Racing 6.60
  Golf 6.20
  Snooker 6.11
  Men's Tennis 5.71
  Women's Tennis 5.48
  Horses 4.63
  Dogs 3.95

Overall the results were somewhat counter intuitive to the group, but after much discussion and deliberation it was felt that they were an accurate reflection of our opinions on the area.



The group chose, as its top two sports to bet on, American Football, about which only one of our number has a clue, and Basketball about which we were all fairly ignorant!



The American sports did particularly well, in comparison to soccer, on availability of data and being (relatively) high scoring in nature. Soccer excelled in terms of the market volumes and the knowledge we had of the sport.



So, a somewhat surprising conclusion to a thought-provoking and interesting exercise; it may give some of you pause for thought before placing your next bet - it certainly did this for usa"

[Gonad]

gregm's post deserves a hundred nodding green heads...

[Art Vandeleigh]

Just when you think you've got a beat on this game.....there comes that seemingly endless losing streak, without warning.

[Roadtrip635]

Casual once a month guy will not win long term.Just too many things against him .
The races CAN be beaten but the amount of time, effort and constant clear headed patience that it takes is very difficult for most.Per hour return is not as much as most would think.
Yes , a SBR syndicate could make money but that requires many moving parts. Since a fence is only as strong as it's weakest link,too many people would be put at risk without realizing the weakness within until it was too late IMO.

Very true!

[nyplayer33]

No..you can't overcome the takeout advantage the house has..only ione way..whenthere is a rollover in pools..like big pick 6..u then hav alot of dead money

[jjgold]

Only way to hang in the game in horses is to make scores by betting exotics
your not betting to win/place and think your going to show a profit

[Ced's shadow]

I've seen a couple, hard stuff to keep at tho

[ChuckyTheGoat]

gregm's post deserves a hundred nodding green heads...

Thank u, Gregm!

[milwaukee mike]

keep in mind the % working against you:
straight bets (win place show) 20% house edge
exotics (quinella/trifecta/super/etc) 25% house edge

anyone thinking they can offset a 20-25% house edge on ANYTHING over the long term is delusional

if you want to make up a large portion of that, bet strictly 4-1 or 5-1 horses to win/place/show. over the long haul that simple strategy will probably have you down only 5-10% instead of 20%

i have been pretty good at dog races long-term, but that's only because the pools were small here and they showed how much money was bet on each dog to place/show. so for example i would pick a dog that only had $8 on it to show (out of $300 in the pool) at the last second and often get $15 payouts from $2 bets.
but the tracks here are all closed now so my days of scraping $20-30 profits per trip are gone

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dairyland? I used to go there. Fun place.

[dante1]

Nobody beats the ponies in the long run. It is the books favorite bet. When you calculate and cap a race correctly you're lucky to get 5.60, very lucky. With all the variables involved it is nearly impossible to win. The only winners are number players in exotics and if they use that strategy for a long period of time they will lose too.

When I held action the horse players almost never won and when they did they returned the money the next day.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nobody beats the ponies in the long run. It is the books favorite bet. When you calculate and cap a race correctly you're lucky to get 5.60, very lucky. With all the variables involved it is nearly impossible to win. The only winners are number players in exotics and if they use that strategy for a long period of time they will lose too.

When I held action the horse players almost never won and when they did they returned the money the next day.

I agree w/ u. Every now and then, however, u read about someone good, like Alan Woods. And u begin to wonder.

[str]

Because it is parimutuel, players are not playing against the house.
The house takes their cut, yes. But the opponent is not the house, it is all the other players.
Beating the horses is definitely possible.
Making an amount of money that justifies the amount of daily time and effort involved is the problem.
Most players that have the work ethic and brains that are required to beat the horses can make 3 times as much with 1/2 the effort in other fields and enjoy weekends and holidays off as well as pension, stability and a family.
The saying that "horses don't know it's Christmas" carries over to pro gamblers as well.Especially at the track.

[Casperwaits]

Is it possible, yes. Is it likely, absolutely not.

[underthe total]

i know of a horse player that makes a living at it

[marksinger]

I'd like to know this guy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i know of a horse player that makes a living at it

I believe u. I think the reality gets into some of the previous posts. Quality of living? How much does he make? What are his hours/holidays? Of course, I believe that freedom trumps all of that.