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It's getting closer to post time at Churchill Downs and the most exciting two minutes in sports. Colonel John, Court Vision and Cowboy Cal are three to consider when going to the window.
It's time for the Kentucky Derby and my reload-ers and I look to collect again at the betting windows this year! Last year it was win and place tickets on Street Sense and Hard Spun as part of "Triple Penetration" that got the money for us. This year, I am again releasing my top three choices so get your reloads in and get set to unload.
As I did last year, I am using a 20-unit bankroll for the race and spreading it out among my three selections. When it comes to horse racing, I am not the type to look for the big "score" as many players out there are. I look to spread out risk, get some action out of it, and hope to end up with a profit like last year. Here we go...
#4 Court Vision
(1 unit to Win, 2 units to Place, 4 units to Show)
Bill Mott has horses in the Kentucky Derby this year and that's all we may need to know here with Court Vision. His last three races were all at 1-1/8 miles and the closing kick was there in all of them getting a win and two third-place finishes. All three were tough trips for a variety of reasons and if a better trip happens in the Derby, it could be lights out down the stretch here.
The speed figures also improved in each of the last three races consecutively going from 76 to 88 to 90. With two third-place finishes in a row instead of wins like others have going into this race, it helps for value. And that means a bigger price here at longshot odds to light up the board. Mott has also had him shipped around outside of New York including a one mile race at Churchill Downs last year where he won easily going from fifth to first in the stretch. And it's always an advantage being one of the handful of horses in the race who has had a race over the track once before.
#10 Colonel John
(2 units to Win, 4 units to Place)
Out of the lower-priced horses in the race, I like Colonel John the most and feel he is worth including among my top three. The victory by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby last month was a thrilling close at the finish and showed he has the potential for the closing power needed to go 1-1/4 miles after winning at 1-1/8 miles in both the Santa Anita Derby and a race at Santa Anita a month before that.
Despite staying only on the California racing circuit with Colonel John, they have not fooled around as after breaking his maiden last October he was entered into two big stakes races at Hollywood Park with bigger distances performing well by coming from behind at the end. Colonel John also had the highest speed factor in his career in the Santa Anita Derby at 95 showing there is potential for even more here in the Run for the Roses. I feel that there is a good chance Colonel John could go off as the post-time favorite in this race with the morning line favorite Big Brown having to come out of the 20 hole and likely to not have the public's confidence with only three races under his belt.
Although the odds could be low, I feel including him among the Top 3 will pay alright across the board provided that Big Brown or Pyro finishes out of the money which I feel they both will. Colonel John could be a champion in the making and this will be gut check time as the very best face the very best here.
#17 Cowboy Cal
(1 unit to Win, 2 units to Place, 4 units to Show)
I know what everyone is saying – here we go again with jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher as everyone puts their hard-earned money on this combination in the Derby every year and they never seem to get it done. But they have Cowboy Cal this year who at a price like 15-1 represents some good value and I am including him among my Top 3 for the race.
Like what typically happens with Pletcher's horses, Cowboy Cal started out in New York breaking his maiden at Belmont. Since then, he has been shipped around for four big races at four different tracks with first and second place finishes everywhere. Although most starts have been on the turf, Pletcher made the move to the dirt for the Blue Grass and finished second by a neck after leading the entire race. With the increased distance to 1-1/4 miles, it will make it that much more difficult to stay out in front but I feel Cowboy Cal at least has what it takes to finish in the money here.
The #17 hole may also present a problem but with the front-running he has done in most of his prior races, we have to hope Velazquez can get out to the front early and get a good trip here. Staying out in front will be the tough part but the speed factors have been very consistent for this horse in the last five races – with a 90 or better in all of them. So I feel staying in the lead or near it will be best and holding on for second or third when a closer zooms by will pay off the place or show tickets nicely if the win cannot be gotten. And hopefully the closer doing that will be either Court Vision or Colonel John! Hard Spun was among my top three selections for last year and held on for second with the front-running style he had – I see the same happening here with Cowboy Cal.
Advice on betting the race
For both of the longshots, I am using a 1-2-4 across the board strategy. I typically do not bother much with show betting in horse racing, but the Kentucky Derby can be an exception. I feel the place and show pools are worth putting a little extra on with this year's Derby if you are betting longshots as I feel there is a good chance most of the lower priced horses will finish out of the money and result in lighting up the place and show prices. With Colonel John likely to pay low odds and possibly even be the post-time favorite, I am recommending a 2-4 Win, Place strategy and will avoid the show bet. This way, a little more is on him at the lower odds compared to the other plays and would more than offset the bets on the longshots ending up with some profit.
But should Colonel John fail, I feel six units of loss would be easily made up if one of the two longshots can hit the board. And obviously if more than one of my selections comes in, we are talking a big payday like last year with Street Sense and Hard Spun. I do not bet exotics as I feel the value is more difficult to gage and the takeout is obviously higher. But if you must bet exotics, I would surely suggest including these three horses among your combinations.
The main thing with the Kentucky Derby is to have fun, drink some mint julips if you can find them, and get one of the biggest rushes there is with an exciting two minute race. But there are profits to be made as well and I wish everyone luck with their wagers. I hope you have enjoyed this year's edition of my Kentucky Derby "Triple Penetration," and if these selections lose, don't worry – the WNBA starts soon so have no fear!
It's time for the Kentucky Derby and my reload-ers and I look to collect again at the betting windows this year! Last year it was win and place tickets on Street Sense and Hard Spun as part of "Triple Penetration" that got the money for us. This year, I am again releasing my top three choices so get your reloads in and get set to unload.
As I did last year, I am using a 20-unit bankroll for the race and spreading it out among my three selections. When it comes to horse racing, I am not the type to look for the big "score" as many players out there are. I look to spread out risk, get some action out of it, and hope to end up with a profit like last year. Here we go...
#4 Court Vision
(1 unit to Win, 2 units to Place, 4 units to Show)
Bill Mott has horses in the Kentucky Derby this year and that's all we may need to know here with Court Vision. His last three races were all at 1-1/8 miles and the closing kick was there in all of them getting a win and two third-place finishes. All three were tough trips for a variety of reasons and if a better trip happens in the Derby, it could be lights out down the stretch here.
The speed figures also improved in each of the last three races consecutively going from 76 to 88 to 90. With two third-place finishes in a row instead of wins like others have going into this race, it helps for value. And that means a bigger price here at longshot odds to light up the board. Mott has also had him shipped around outside of New York including a one mile race at Churchill Downs last year where he won easily going from fifth to first in the stretch. And it's always an advantage being one of the handful of horses in the race who has had a race over the track once before.
#10 Colonel John
(2 units to Win, 4 units to Place)
Out of the lower-priced horses in the race, I like Colonel John the most and feel he is worth including among my top three. The victory by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby last month was a thrilling close at the finish and showed he has the potential for the closing power needed to go 1-1/4 miles after winning at 1-1/8 miles in both the Santa Anita Derby and a race at Santa Anita a month before that.
Despite staying only on the California racing circuit with Colonel John, they have not fooled around as after breaking his maiden last October he was entered into two big stakes races at Hollywood Park with bigger distances performing well by coming from behind at the end. Colonel John also had the highest speed factor in his career in the Santa Anita Derby at 95 showing there is potential for even more here in the Run for the Roses. I feel that there is a good chance Colonel John could go off as the post-time favorite in this race with the morning line favorite Big Brown having to come out of the 20 hole and likely to not have the public's confidence with only three races under his belt.
Although the odds could be low, I feel including him among the Top 3 will pay alright across the board provided that Big Brown or Pyro finishes out of the money which I feel they both will. Colonel John could be a champion in the making and this will be gut check time as the very best face the very best here.
#17 Cowboy Cal
(1 unit to Win, 2 units to Place, 4 units to Show)
I know what everyone is saying – here we go again with jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher as everyone puts their hard-earned money on this combination in the Derby every year and they never seem to get it done. But they have Cowboy Cal this year who at a price like 15-1 represents some good value and I am including him among my Top 3 for the race.
Like what typically happens with Pletcher's horses, Cowboy Cal started out in New York breaking his maiden at Belmont. Since then, he has been shipped around for four big races at four different tracks with first and second place finishes everywhere. Although most starts have been on the turf, Pletcher made the move to the dirt for the Blue Grass and finished second by a neck after leading the entire race. With the increased distance to 1-1/4 miles, it will make it that much more difficult to stay out in front but I feel Cowboy Cal at least has what it takes to finish in the money here.
The #17 hole may also present a problem but with the front-running he has done in most of his prior races, we have to hope Velazquez can get out to the front early and get a good trip here. Staying out in front will be the tough part but the speed factors have been very consistent for this horse in the last five races – with a 90 or better in all of them. So I feel staying in the lead or near it will be best and holding on for second or third when a closer zooms by will pay off the place or show tickets nicely if the win cannot be gotten. And hopefully the closer doing that will be either Court Vision or Colonel John! Hard Spun was among my top three selections for last year and held on for second with the front-running style he had – I see the same happening here with Cowboy Cal.
Advice on betting the race
For both of the longshots, I am using a 1-2-4 across the board strategy. I typically do not bother much with show betting in horse racing, but the Kentucky Derby can be an exception. I feel the place and show pools are worth putting a little extra on with this year's Derby if you are betting longshots as I feel there is a good chance most of the lower priced horses will finish out of the money and result in lighting up the place and show prices. With Colonel John likely to pay low odds and possibly even be the post-time favorite, I am recommending a 2-4 Win, Place strategy and will avoid the show bet. This way, a little more is on him at the lower odds compared to the other plays and would more than offset the bets on the longshots ending up with some profit.
But should Colonel John fail, I feel six units of loss would be easily made up if one of the two longshots can hit the board. And obviously if more than one of my selections comes in, we are talking a big payday like last year with Street Sense and Hard Spun. I do not bet exotics as I feel the value is more difficult to gage and the takeout is obviously higher. But if you must bet exotics, I would surely suggest including these three horses among your combinations.
The main thing with the Kentucky Derby is to have fun, drink some mint julips if you can find them, and get one of the biggest rushes there is with an exciting two minute race. But there are profits to be made as well and I wish everyone luck with their wagers. I hope you have enjoyed this year's edition of my Kentucky Derby "Triple Penetration," and if these selections lose, don't worry – the WNBA starts soon so have no fear!
