I watched both Raptor's game on and off. Orlando were able to sustain big leads mainly because they shot so well from 3 point line early, not Dwight Howard's easier scoring by dominating the paint. So all the Raptor's had to do was protect the 3 point line in the 3rd game. In both loses they showed a lot of grit and no quit in them despite being behind for most of it. This was a team that clearly knew they would get the best of Magic's once on their home court. Plus, Orlando isn't that much of a better team anyways.
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He implies it when he suggests betting less than normal and when he says that IWYM will come back to earth with a thud.I know you and Durito like to pick on BB , but where does he state his regression to fall below 50% ?Comment -
Not just pick on me PN, but they are here to torment me over next to nothing. DJ is just arguing to argue right now b/c he is bored or something.
No where did I say he would go down to 50%. Now we are trying to figure out what "thud" truly implies. All I implied is he would eventually regress b/c maintining a 90% win rate on sides on essentially a 50/50 outcome is about as close to statistically impossible as you can have. Sure, over 16 picks....it's possible. over 46 pics? Over 96 picks? Over 606 picks? He'll regress back down to his true population mean. It could be 59%, it could be 45%, it could be 50%...but whatever it is, you'll eventuallly go back to it. Of course it will go back down with a "thud"... when you go from 90 to 60% it's a thud, let alone in the mid to low 50's.
I was relaying this info to him b/c quite frankly it seems like IWIN expects to win every single time. Unless you think otherwise, you can give him better ifno.
And i was just starting to like DJ too
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What did I do?
All I said where that teams that lose the first two games of a playoffs series at home are in fact not 60% ATS as home favorites in game three (more like 53%)-- at least based on my data set -- which is covers data back to 1990.Comment -
So recommending betting less "for the next few weeks" is just a random comment that has nothing to do with the rest of your post?Comment -
I noticed LT echoed BuddyBears comments and no such remark was made to LTOriginally posted by durito
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When the poster says and I quote "I have lost all confidence. Im looking at tomorrows games with a blank look."Originally posted by donjuan
It really is a good suggestion.Comment -
LT said:Originally posted by pokernut9999I noticed LT echoed BuddyBears comments and no such remark was made to LT
Which a reasonable suggestion -- especially since the 53% mark suggests they've been undervalued.First of all, home teams down 0-2 are always worth a look
What exactly is your point?Comment -
I guess the last part of the LT quote was left out for entertainment puposesOriginally posted by durito
First of all, home teams down 0-2 are always worth a look, as BB had correctly pointed out.Comment -
In all honestly durito, I myself thought the percentage would be better than 53%. Is that figure for ALL home teams? If so, see what you come up with if you query home FAVORITES of -4 or more only. That would eliminate the mismatches such as Boston/Atlanta.Comment -
I will check it out later and see what I get. Atlanta's a dog of 8pts though, they wouldn't qualify anyway.Comment -
Yes, that does in fact put it above 60% -- though it's a pretty small sample size.Comment -
Durito: I am not questionin your numbers, but I am fairly confident that I read yesterday on statfox that NBA teams down 0-2 and playing game 3 at home and are the favorite are 31-18-1...which would now be 33-18-1 after WSH and TOR last night. If that is the case, you are looking at 64% or so. Unfortunately I can no longer find the article but perhaps LT is referring to that or LT can find that article somewhere or anyone who may have saw it can help out here.Comment -
so suns and mavs tonight then?Comment -
If that's what he was actually referring to then "don't bet at all" would probably be the sensible advice.When the poster says and I quote "I have lost all confidence. Im looking at tomorrows games with a blank look."
It really is a good suggestion.Comment -
I have a far larger number of games, so I'm guessing I am looking at more years.Originally posted by BuddyBearComment -
If you want to draw a conclusion based on 16 bets that this guy is a 90% bettor than by all means feel free to believe that. At best, he is a 53-55% bettor. Look, all I said is he is not going to keep up this pace...which is hardly a bold predictions, but unfortunately it appears that IWIN can't even comprehend that judging by his posts where he "has lost all confidence" b/c he is now 14-2. He is undoubtedly going to regress back so therefore I recommend that he lower his bet size b/c he appears to be the type of bettors who will do the opposite when confronted with adversity. I am just tyring to help...yet you have to throw a fit over absolutely nothing.Originally posted by donjuan
Instead of wasting time bickering with me about whether "thud" means over 50% or under 50%...why don't you direct your energies toward rectifying IWIN's poor quantitative logic since that is your speciality
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I think these two go 1-1 tonight.Originally posted by hawaii04Comment -
That trend is factored into these lines.Originally posted by hawaii04Comment -
Originally posted by BuddyBearIf you want to draw a conclusion based on 16 bets that this guy is a 90% bettor than by all means feel free to believe that. At best, he is a 53-55% bettor. Look, all I said is he is not going to keep up this pace...which is hardly a bold predictions, but unfortunately it appears that IWIN can't even comprehend that judging by his posts where he "has lost all confidence" b/c he is now 14-2. He is undoubtedly going to regress back so therefore I recommend that he lower his bet size b/c he appears to be the type of bettors who will do the opposite when confronted with adversity. I am just tyring to help...yet you have to throw a fit over absolutely nothing.
Instead of wasting time bickering with me about whether "thud" means over 50% or under 50%...why don't you direct your energies toward rectifying IWIN's poor quantitative logic since that is your speciality
Sound advice.Comment -
LOL I was drunk when I posted that. Confidence aint damaged we good!Comment -
Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney ...here I was thinking you were serious about it.
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Fair enough. I hardly think he's a 90% bettor or whatever else. TBH, I'd guess 50% or close to it against WA lines. I just took issue with what I believed to be you implying he was "due" for a downswing.If you want to draw a conclusion based on 16 bets that this guy is a 90% bettor than by all means feel free to believe that. At best, he is a 53-55% bettor. Look, all I said is he is not going to keep up this pace...which is hardly a bold predictions, but unfortunately it appears that IWIN can't even comprehend that judging by his posts where he "has lost all confidence" b/c he is now 14-2. He is undoubtedly going to regress back so therefore I recommend that he lower his bet size b/c he appears to be the type of bettors who will do the opposite when confronted with adversity. I am just tyring to help...yet you have to throw a fit over absolutely nothing.
Instead of wasting time bickering with me about whether "thud" means over 50% or under 50%...why don't you direct your energies toward rectifying IWIN's poor quantitative logic since that is your specialityComment -
Well Dallas, not anymore. You had your chance when it was -5 so laying -6 isn't a very good idea.Originally posted by hawaii04
Suns, there are still some -6.5's out there but the number is getting out of control
I lost track of time today and forgot to bet PHIL +5.5...i hope PHILLY gets annihilated to make me feel better
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Okay, truce.....Originally posted by donjuanComment
