Does Hillary Has a Chance to Snag the Nomination?

[ritehook]

Her victory in Penna was solid.

But, not really enogh to get her home first.

If Obama win N.Carolina convincingly, and he should, it's over.

Those who have Obama in the future books can start planning how to spend their money.

[Deuce]

She is a cunt. No.

[tacomax]

Does Hillary Has a Chance to Snag the Nomination?

She's at +440 to win at Matchbook. Odds not so far away from those for the Giants against the Patriots.

[ritehook]

She's at +440 to win at Matchbook. Odds not so far away from those for the Giants against the Patriots.

If she beats Obama, with the big delegate lead he has (and th Demo Party not eager to alienate their black base by fukking him over) then I'll also make Hillary my choice to win the 2009 Super Bowl.

[Cannon]

She will screw him out of it at the convention.

[ritehook]

She will screw him out of it at the convention.

If a backroom deal is cut to steal it from Obama there will be a black revolt in the Demo party. They won't do it.

But if in 2 weeks she wins both N Caro and Indiana convincingly (very unlikely!) she will still have talking points with the super delegates.

Wish I had some Obama bets in,

[BuddyBear]

Kind of tricky at this point. Mathematically, she is unlikely to win the pledge delegates. However, the Super Delegates are in her favor. Anything can happen given the way it is set up..

Put it this way, if it goes to the convention...i'd much prefer to be holding a ticket that said Clinton +440 than Obama -600 or so.

[durito]

It's going to the convention.

If she was going to give up previously, she'd have done so.

If she steals the nomination, she's lost at least one vote.

[Cannon]

They are not going to let Obama go against the Republicans. The Democrats will get killed on all levels of elections national and local. Democrats will not let that happen.

[durito]

They are not going to let Obama go against the Republicans. The Democrats will get killed on all levels of elections national and local. Democrats will not let that happen.

You aren't very smart, are you?

[ritehook]

Any shops posting a number that this will or will not go to the convention? (IE, that it will or will not be decided before tht, either by one candidate getting the pledged votes needed, or one of them - Hilly most likley - throwing in the towel?)

My bet will be tht it doesn't go to the convention. But I think this is too general for any book to make a number on it.

[Cannon]

What will John Edwards do with his 18 delegates. Hillary gets those and it will put her close enough to steal it.

[Deuce]

What will John Edwards do with his 18 delegates. Hillary gets those and it will put her close enough to steal it.

The Dems will get blasted anyways. What were you clowns thinking? A black guy and a woman? Unreal. You stand no chance against McCain.

[BuddyBear]

They are not going to let Obama go against the Republicans. The Democrats will get killed on all levels of elections national and local. Democrats will not let that happen.

hmmm....i am pretty sure the Republicans would like nothing more than to see HC as the Dem nominee. Not so sure they want Obama. Guy has charisma, is articulare, and seems to inspire hope....a stark contrast to the dull and frail Republican candidate who isn't even popular in his own party.

I'd make the line Obama -200/McCain +190 or

Clinton -140/McCain +130

[Cannon]

McCain +190 500 units.

[ritehook]

What will John Edwards do with his 18 delegates. Hillary gets those and it will put her close enough to steal it.

I think I heard that Obama is up over 100 pledged (on first round) delegates.

18 delegates for her isn't going to change the math dynamic. Still, BO really has to win big in N. Caro and be very respectacle in Indiana, to convince the lady to toss the towel

[Cannon]

I can't wait for Hillary to screw him out of it. You don't want to **** with that big assed bitch, trust me.

[durito]

that it will or will not be decided before tht, either by one candidate getting the pledged votes needed,

barring some odd sort of extreme event that would result in either candidate receiving 90% of the rest of the votes, this isn't possible.

she won't catch him, they'll end the primaries about like it is now.

[BuddyBear]

I'm not a DEM at all....and certainly i'd rather be dead than be a Republican...but I am literally floored by how strong the hate is for Hillary Clinton.

Most people who strongly dislike her don't even know why they hate her so much. Let me guess, Rush says she is an evil woman who will turn the country into a socialist or communist nation

As weak a candidate as HC is, I am shocked how anyone can think that she could possible do a worse job than GWB. For all her shortcomings, HC is a considerably better alternative than the current presidential regime.

[BuddyBear]

McCain +190 500 units.

McCain is an absolute sucker bet....every political science and economic model already shows him losing, and losing big at that.

If the Democrats can't landslide the Republicans this election cycle, they might as well pack it up and reinvent their entire party.

[durito]

i liked hilary before she dragged on this primary with no chance of winning which only hurts the democrats chances.

not that i particularly care for the democrats -- but given the alternative...

[BuddyBear]

i liked hilary before she dragged on this primary with no chance of winning which only hurts the democrats chances.

not that i particularly care for the democrats -- but given the alternative...

The alternative is really really scary IMO......

[topgame85]

Write in Ron Paul voting for any of the other three is as helpful to the country as throwing yourself from a cliff tied to your family and friends, as for betting bet Mccain because he will win easily against either opponent because the dems unfortunately are to greedy to play nice

[Cannon]

Dick will tell McCain what to do like he had to do with little Georgie Boy.

[BuddyBear]

as for betting bet Mccain because he will win easily against either opponent because the dems unfortunately are to greedy to play nice

Take a good long look around you. Every indicator favors the Democratic party. There is almost no issue that the REPs have any advantage outside of a handful national security issues.

Everything favors the DEM: Weak economy, rising gas prices, health care, mortgage crisis, unpopular war, unpopular president mired in scandals, social security initiatives, science and technology, diplomatic foreign policy, rising prices for everything, etc...

if Obama gets the nomination, it will be an absolute landslide.....

[Cannon]

Republicans have more money and they are smarter and know how to get real nasty in a Presidential election. Democrats will implode as usual.

[durito]

Republicans have more money and they are smarter and know how to get real nasty in a Presidential election. Democrats will implode as usual.

So how come Obama raises more money every 2 weeks than McCain has raised in the last 6 months.

[BuddyBear]

Republicans have more money and they are smarter and know how to get real nasty in a Presidential election. Democrats will implode as usual.

Money will pour in for Obama. Think about it for just a moment. Kerry outraised Bush in the 2004 election and Kerry was considered a relatively lukewarm candidate and he was going up against an incumbent candidate at about 50% popularity rating. Imagine how much Obama will raise compared with McCain.

I likely won't vote for BO personally, but I can tell you if it is Obama/McCain, Obama will landslide him save a terrorist attack the week before the election or the standard Republican voter fraud chananagins.

[topgame85]

Recent Polls show a dead heat between Mccain against either democrat and I completely agree with you on the matter of the Republicans only real advantage being National Security and that could be the card this current administration uses to boost Mccain into the white house. All that would have to happen to insure the "fear" tactic and push people to Mccain is reports of planned attacks, or raising the terror level to red late October, or god forbid Bush is dumb enough to invade Iran before he leaves office. Mccain is a moderate and dems will vote for him, if you watched the penn primary yesterday exit polls showed clinton 30% of clinton supporters would stay home or vote for mccain if obama is nominated and 23% of Obama supporters would do likewise if clinton is nominated

[Cannon]

Last time I looked McCain had an 18 game lead with 15 games left in the regular season before the playoffs. I have a company that prints election stuff for both parties. The Republicans can shit as much money as often as they need when ever they need it. I usually try to get money from the Democrats up front. Before game time Dick will rally the troops and raise 200 million like it was $20.

[BuddyBear]

These points are well taken TG. However, polls are relatively inaccurate at this point of an election season. Remember, you are trying to generalize a result that is expected to occur almost 7 months from today. It's a relatively poor way in which to handicap an election. Kerry/Edwards were also shown to be leading at this point in '04. Show me a scientific poll on November 1st and I'll have a lot more confidence in who is going to win...show me one on April 23rd, well good luck with that.

I also think the obama/clinton supporter's not voting is very overblown and I wouldn't read too much into it at all. DEM's will unite...which ever candidate loses will eventually (albeit reluctantly) endorse the other candidate. Plus HC and BO supporters both think their candidate is going to win so why would they say they would vote for the other...that's more a psychological phenomenon.

[BuddyBear]

Last time I looked McCain had an 18 game lead with 15 games left in the regular season before the playoffs. I have a company that prints election stuff for both parties. The Republicans can shit as much money as often as they need when ever they need it. I usually try to get money from the Democrats up front. Before game time Dick will rally the troops and raise 200 million like it was $20.

Not sure what is being said here...but DEMs are consistently outraising REPs right now. Both parties have a lot of money though

[Cannon]

McCain is not spending his money like the other two and he is not under presure to do so each week.

[topgame85]

This is very true and there is no shadier game than politics, betting this election is probably a bad idea in general but I am just saying at this point if I personally laid money down it would be on Mccain due only to the polls (as inaccurate as they may be) because they are the current data available and my personal opinion that Bush will do anything in his power to prevent a democrat from taking office including starting new conflicts around the world to push Mccain's strengths, as previously stated I am a Libertaria supporter of Ron Paul so don't take my comments as a Mccain supporter trying to convice you he will win just an observer

Side note: mccain drops dead from old age and Romney steps in to Republican nomination having only suspended not ended his campaign, Economy in its current form leaves possibility he could also defeat a democrat (highly unlikely) but if anyone wanted to book $10 for $2,000 I'd do it

[ritehook]

Take a good long look around you. Every indicator favors the Democratic party. There is almost no issue that the REPs have any advantage outside of a handful national security issues.

Everything favors the DEM: Weak economy, rising gas prices, health care, mortgage crisis, unpopular war, unpopular president mired in scandals, social security initiatives, science and technology, diplomatic foreign policy, rising prices for everything, etc...

if Obama gets the nomination, it will be an absolute landslide.....

Landslide? No, don't think so . . .

New voters like Obama - but will that many of them take time out from dating, school, foots and hoops to vote?

And as you and others say, if the "threat level" is raised, or if Iran becomes victim of another "Lusitania" or "Tonkin Gulf" deal, the neocons (who are foursquare behind Johnny Boots)
will once more swindle their way into the White House.

If the Shia militias can mount a worthwhile summer campaign agaisnt the occupiers it will do damage to McCain. One might go so far as to say that the future of America rests in the religious brain of al Sadr.