Camoflauge and sportsbooks

[Justin7]

Any card counter knows you can only beat the crap out of a place as long as you are welcome. Acting the act is half the game.

what do you sharps do when you sign up at a square book for longevity?

[pico]

Any card counter knows you can only beat the crap out of a place as long as you are welcome. Acting the act is half the game.

what do you sharps do when you sign up at a square book for longevity?

only stupid sharps would answer this question, justin

[durito]

I've been thinking about this a lot, as I'm about to (before football) jump back in and play at a lot of books looking for bonuses and other perks, and I'd like to actually keep them.

I think you have to be careful with your wagering patterns and try not to throw up any flags. I try to never have disputes of any kind or to do anything that draws attention to myself. I'm concerned my IP is going to do that alone this year.

You can also make some small -EV wagers I suppose -- I'm doing this anyway as hedges after a line move, if I do this entirely at a rec book I probably won't make anything -- but it's a good way to run through a rollover.

[Justin7]

Some bonus whores will use the casino to meet rollover. Many sportsbooks automatically profile a player as an idiot if you use a casino, so that is a plus. If you really want to stick around at a place, blow $50 in the casino.

Another good idea... stay below half the limit bet. If they take $1k on a game, stay at $450 or less.

Parlays... Also good. But don't do more than 3 teamers, unless there is a great promo.

[donjuan]

Another good idea... stay below half the limit bet. If they take $1k on a game, stay at $450 or less.

This is a good idea, especially if you can spread your action among a few books. The problem is when you are betting a sport like rugby with low limits and few books who post lines and take Americans. Now if you're clever, you can get access to the non-American books as well, but that is another topic, and one that should not be discussed on a public forum.

[DukeJohn]

Some bonus whores will use the casino to meet rollover. Many sportsbooks automatically profile a player as an idiot if you use a casino, so that is a plus. If you really want to stick around at a place, blow $50 in the casino.

Another good idea... stay below half the limit bet. If they take $1k on a game, stay at $450 or less.

Parlays... Also good. But don't do more than 3 teamers, unless there is a great promo.

I am not a full professional sports bettor yet. I am close, but my bankroll currently isn't enough to support my family, however, I do get close to limits sometimes if I feel the play warrants that many units. So, for a $1000 limit, I will bet anywhere from $100 - $800. So, the majority of my amounts are in the $300 - $500 range. I also bet early in the morning, unless a play is moving in my favor and of course if it is, well, I'm sure the book is happy to get my bet to offset the money moving the line. I also have several outs and some I only use about once a week. I have yet to run into a problem with limits or bonus issues, but like I said, I am not a professional at this yet.

[The HG]

Is it really worth it to go through all that kind of trouble just to be able to play at a place that boots winners anyway? Maybe it is. What am I missing?

[pico]

if you know your stuff, then all you need is pinnacle, greek and matchbook to cover 95% of the sporting events. add betfair and couple of eurobooks, then you're all set.

[durito]

if you know your stuff, then all you need is pinnacle, greek and matchbook to cover 95% of the sporting events. add betfair and couple of eurobooks, then you're all set.

It's quite a bit harder to make money playing only at pinny/greek/matchbook than it is playing a sports interaction or betonline. while it certainly can be done, the opportunities presented by many of the B/C (sometimes D) rated recreational books are too much to pass up.

[pico]

It's quite a bit harder to make money playing only at pinny/greek/matchbook than it is playing a sports interaction or betonline. while it certainly can be done, the opportunities presented by many of the B/C (sometimes D) rated recreational books are too much to pass up.

i totally agree. it seems the B/C/D books has the best bonuses and stale lines. it aint easy to be a pro, so i am just sticking with my big three so i can win some pot money.

[Justin7]

Is it really worth it to go through all that kind of trouble just to be able to play at a place that boots winners anyway? Maybe it is. What am I missing?

Yes, it's worth it.

I was betting Arena games tonight. On a 5k bet, I have about $250 in equity at Olympic/BM, and 375 at Pinny. None of them take this, but this is for comparison. At a square shop, my equity is over $1000, just from getting an extra half-point at full-juice.

I know every dirty trick in the book, and have done most of them... I was just good enough to avoid detection. Of course, now, I'm completely above the board

[pico]

Yes, it's worth it.

I was betting Arena games tonight. On a 5k bet, I have about $250 in equity at Olympic/BM, and 375 at Pinny. None of them take this, but this is for comparison. At a square shop, my equity is over $1000, just from getting an extra half-point at full-juice.

I know every dirty trick in the book, and have done most of them... I was just good enough to avoid detection. Of course, now, I'm completely above the board

what do you mean by equity, but i am pretty convinced if i am running a sportsbook, i do not want your action at all.

[The HG]

At a square shop, my equity is over $1000, just from getting an extra half-point at full-juice.

But now they'll boot you and your IP address, right? Do you think that they will treat you any differently if you lose $50 at the casino or play a few multi-team parlays?

[donjuan]

what do you mean by equity

Expected value.

[moses millsap]

Some things NOT to do:

Bet the limit max, then immediately go ape$hit doing if bets and parlays with -3000 chalks so you can circumvent the limit.

Hitting the max on totals as they come out.

Some things to do:

When starting up and phoning in action at first, ask them for a rundown of the primetime televised games. (I actually did this with my first credit shop and bet 4 of the chalks, but all for lowest demonination bet; I was booted 4 months later)

If you have enough outs and move quickly enough, scalp out of 2nd halves by playing the sucker fave side at their book (i.e. Pistons down by 9 at half to Clippers, take Pistons -10.5 there, +11 elsewhere).

Throw in a token loser parlay every week or so, some long shot garbage parlay with all of your day's selections. Nothing significant. (Nickel players bet a $5 10 team ML dog parlay, etc.)

[Art Vandeleigh]

what do you mean by equity, but i am pretty convinced if i am running a sportsbook, i do not want your action at all.

I'm with you on this one picoman.

My mind is interpreting Justin's statement as follows:

He bet $5,000 on an arena game somewhere, we don't know where.
Somehow, someway, by making this bet, he had $250 equity at Greek, which doesn't take this bet, and $375 at Pinny, which doesn't take the bet.
Also, somehow, someway, he would have $1,000 equity at a low rated book, which also doesn't take this bet.
The reasoning being because he got and extra half point.
And paid full juice. At a place that doesn't take the bet.

I feel very at the moment

[rake922]

I've been thinking about this a lot, as I'm about to (before football) jump back in and play at a lot of books looking for bonuses and other perks, and I'd like to actually keep them.

I think you have to be careful with your wagering patterns and try not to throw up any flags. I try to never have disputes of any kind or to do anything that draws attention to myself. I'm concerned my IP is going to do that alone this year.

You can also make some small -EV wagers I suppose -- I'm doing this anyway as hedges after a line move, if I do this entirely at a rec book I probably won't make anything -- but it's a good way to run through a rollover.

How much can you really make with being a bonus outlooker?

[Justin7]

what do you mean by equity, but i am pretty convinced if i am running a sportsbook, i do not want your action at all.

On most bets, I have a good feel for what the win rate is. If you know how often a bet should win, you can figure out your expected value on a wager.

[rake922]

Justin7, do books only cut you off if you request the withdrawl?


What if you're up 35k in a month, but never attempt a withdrawl?

[Art Vandeleigh]

Oh, I think I see my mistake, when Justin wrote "none of them take this" he was referring to the amount (5K). Now it makes more sense.

[pico]

Oh, I think I see my mistake, when Justin wrote "none of them take this" he was referring to the amount (5K). Now it makes more sense.

no way. pinnacle limits for arena spread right now is 1.5k and 750 for o/u. 5k bet would require 3+ limit pop at pinnacle...i done something like that before (on soccer), but i think i moved the line like 30 cents.

not sure what is the greek limit right now, i gone bust in that book a while back, but their limit is pretty high as well...i think you can get 1k bet on arena sides.

[pico]

On most bets, I have a good feel for what the win rate is. If you know how often a bet should win, you can figure out your expected value on a wager.

i think i get it now. like in poker, i see my hold cards, depends on the button position and the people's behavior, i have a sense what is my bluff win rate is.

you must have betted 10k+ events to get a sense like this. this is something you have to learn from experience. math can only do so much, the rest are experience.

[durito]

it has nothing to do with experience. it's all math

[Art Vandeleigh]

Yes, I think if Justin realized some of his audience were sport handicap mentally challenged, such as myself, he would have written it:

(My additions in parenthesis)


I was betting Arena games tonight. (At the odds available,) on a (theoretical) 5k bet, I (would) have about $250 in equity at Olympic/BM, and 375 at Pinny. None of them take this (amount), but this is (only an example) for comparison. At a square shop, my (theoretical) equity (on the $5000 wager) is over $1000, just from getting an extra half-point at full-juice.

[pico]

it has nothing to do with experience. it's all math

you never bet based on intuition?

[durito]

you never bet based on intuition?

no, my intuition sucks

[MrX]

no, my intuition sucks

Me too. Here's my normal procedure:

My Intuition: You're betting WHAT?! Are you nuts?
Math: All the data's right here. What's your question?
My Intuition: My question is how you think this pig could ever win this game.
Math: Just relax. There are a lot of factors at play.
My Intuition: Whatever, Math, throw your money away. See if I care.

--- 3 hours later

Math: See, was that so bad?
My Intuition: Damn, we got lucky on that one.

[pico]

Me too. Here's my normal procedure:

My Intuition: You're betting WHAT?! Are you nuts?
Math: All the data's right here. What's you're question?
My Intuition: My question is how you think this pig could ever win this game.
Math: Just relax. There are a lot of factors at play.
My Intuition: Whatever, Math, throw you're money away. See if I care.

--- 3 hours later

Math: See, was that so bad.
My Intuition: Damn, we got lucky on that one.

can i meet your Math? because i can only hear my intuition telling me, "all in, it is a lock!"

[DukeJohn]

Me too. Here's my normal procedure:

My Intuition: You're betting WHAT?! Are you nuts?
Math: All the data's right here. What's you're question?
My Intuition: My question is how you think this pig could ever win this game.
Math: Just relax. There are a lot of factors at play.
My Intuition: Whatever, Math, throw you're money away. See if I care.

--- 3 hours later

Math: See, was that so bad.
My Intuition: Damn, we got lucky on that one.

[bigboydan]

Justin,

By flying under the radar with those types of wagering traits, does it also keep you from receiving the dreaded 30-60 second time delays?

[Justin7]

Justin,

By flying under the radar with those types of wagering traits, does it also keep you from receiving the dreaded 30-60 second time delays?

Yes... but the biggest books don't use these. And if they do, there are ways around that also. but I shouldn't discuss those openly, since I'm one of the "good guys".

[durito]

What books will give you a delay rather than booting you?

WSEX gave me one, but they took it off with a simple phone call. I found that odd.

[donjuan]

5 Dimes.

[durito]

I wish they'd give me a delay instead of cutting my limits in golf matchups.

[SBR Lou]

Justin as I touched on last night, occasionally make six team parlays and you will fly right under the radar brother.