Bad runs...

[Winner_13]

justin give us the answer!

[PRC]

Great answer... what makes the books love guys like you...

Let's see, if you're a 54% handicapper (as justin's spreadsheet indicates), would you rather make a lot of plays or few plays?

[dvsbmx]

Tout your plays instead of betting them yourself!!!

[magynuck]

yes 73 games on a busy sat/sun is way too small

[goblue12]

A unit should be a % of your current bankroll.

When you go on losing streaks, you tighten up because you have less to lose.

When you go on winning streaks, you increase your stake per wager.

[COYLO]

yeah ive got them today must have been something i ate last nite.. oh sorry wrong runs lol

[sideloaded]

Pavyracer please post more excellent advice in this thread. LMAO. Why did you high tail it out of here so quick?

[DeluxeLiner]

This is true if you are betting into openers. What if you want to bet more than opening limits allow?

You can parlay the opener with a large moneyline favorite to put more money on the game and circumvent the opening limits

[Celery]

For the same reason I've done about 100 videos -- to help people do better at sports betting.

The CBB market seems to have almost no respect for your posted picks, do you care?

[d2bets]

to go 26-46 or worse on 53% outcomes in about 1 in 350.

So this should happen once every 350 3-day periods in CBB. CBB is a 4-month season, so around 40 of those. So this should happen once every 9 CBB seasons or so.

Now what are the chances that these picks were not pulled from a 53% bucket? Nobody's perfect.

[FourLengthsClear]

So this should happen once every 350 3-day periods in CBB. CBB is a 4-month season, so around 40 of those. So this should happen once every 9 CBB seasons or so.

Now what are the chances that these picks were not pulled from a 53% bucket? Nobody's perfect.

Very true but I responded to a poster who mentioned a 53% weighted-coin.

[durito]

Why is this in s&i ?

[Justin7]

Why is this in s&i ?

Over-moderation? *shrug*

[Justin7]

You can parlay the opener with a large moneyline favorite to put more money on the game and circumvent the opening limits

Or you can round-robin your plays in clumps of 8 with each other. And bonus churn. Or earn loyalty points. Or rebates on volume. Or ... nm.

[PRC]

The CBB market seems to have almost no respect for your posted picks, do you care?

He does fairly well BTCL from what I've seen.

[fishmonger]

How many good runs have you gone on? I see from your spread sheet that you have had a few.

[alukk]

How do you select your plays?

[big0mar]

Justin were you ever going to share your opinion on what the right answer should be????

[cyberbabble]

If these are the only bets you made using this model/scheme, stop betting. Since this run started in Feb., you probably had bets before these. Take all the bets using this model (only real money bets, paper bets don't count) and calculate your performance metrics - BTCL%, win%, W/L record - for all of the bets. You had some threshold level that you compared to a performance metric to decide to start betting. Is your performance metric, based on all bets, still OK relative to the threshold value? If so keep betting. If not, stop betting. If a lower performance metric requires smaller or fewer bets, do that.

For psychological reasons, it may be good to cut back. At some point, the poor performance may affect decision making. Make smaller bets. Cut back on the number of bets. If your model ranks the picks, use the top half of the ranked picks. Otherwise flip a coin to decide which picks to bet and which to pass.

[Dark Horse]

The number of plays the person bets over a longer period of time should be factored in. A person that bets 100 games in 3 months and is 20-45 after two months has a problem. But a person that bets 3000 games in the same period can shrug off the 20-45.

The question remains if and where you would draw the line.

[jhol3990]

And the answer is .... ?

[cant call it]

do what you do. If you are indeed good at it , you will succeed.

[P.F.Kasooff]

A unit should be a % of your current bankroll.

When you go on losing streaks, you tighten up because you have less to lose.

When you go on winning streaks, you increase your stake per wager.

That sounds good and many people repeat it but how many bettors do it?

[20Four7]

I was happy I was fading you..... still reading your book should be interesting when I'm done.

[Lo$t]

Izzo any number.

[allin1]

So basically if you know what is your winning percentage that you expect to hit in the long run then you should be able to detect when your "so called losing streak" is actually a bigger deviation than you would expect from your overall performance.

To make a long post short: it all comes down to the standard deviation/sigma?

[mathdotcom]

3 day spell: 26-46-1, -23.39 units.

What do you guys do when you hit a run like this? (This is a serious question, and there is a "right" answer I am looking for).

A lot of sharps have had a brutal couple of weeks on NCAABB. Steam on NCAABB 2Hs is probably 15-85 the past few days. Keep your head up and maybe follow jjgold for a while.

[rfr3sh]

fade mathy

[EaglesPhan36]

The smart answer would be to reduce your wager size until you begin to see yourself going back in the right direction. The actual answer is staying the course and hating life.

[brahmabull117]

IMO, lower units, when running bad I feel you should lalways ower your units until you regain your confidence. Every player will go through ruts like this from time to time and if you can manage the overall damage during these rough patches, it will increase your annual profits.

Why do people hit such awful streak anyways???


Do they lose their confidence and start making questionable plays???


I mean I'm no gambling god but I've never had worse than like an 1-6 type streak

[moses millsap]

Change nothing.

[brahmabull117]

For psychological reasons, it may be good to cut back. At some point, the poor performance may affect decision making. Make smaller bets. Cut back on the number of bets. If your model ranks the picks, use the top half of the ranked picks. Otherwise flip a coin to decide which picks to bet and which to pass.

I always take a break off gambling for a few days if I go on a rough streak



gambling while you're frustrated/miserable = terrible decision making

[AlwaysDrawing]

The answer is clearly to stop posting in your SBR spreadsheet.

[ManBearPig]

If you're confident that your methods are winning methods, eg above breakeven, you should ride the wave and attribute it to variance because everyone experiences it. Don't over bet and even reduce units amounts in the meantime depending on your MM strategy. If your a numbers guy, which you are, then you look at your model/system/logic to look for holes that you could've missed or have popped up recently, especially for a new season. I don't think there is a single right answer here as everyone is different in their methods

BTW...is this a test?

[allin1]

With a normal distribution you would expect to have a 36% success rate run in less than 5% of the time considering the standard deviation (sigma) around 5. What would I do in a case like this if I really hit a run like that(36%)? I would keep betting aggressively with kelly.