Bad runs...

[MartinBlank]

A run like this hit me in the college football bowl season.

I simply stopped. I was down about 11 units---and simply felt I was starting to push.

Stepping back cleared my head some, and I bounced back and won 4 units back.

The best recipes for bad stretches is taking time out and re-evaluate.

[Grux]

If your past records show that you hit above 52.4% then I would continue betting.

[byronbb]

I've bled away 14% of my BR from the start of the month.

[wtf]

lol at SBR posters giving Justin betting advice

HE ASKED FOR ADVICE

or maybe you cannot read , dork

[blackbart]

bang a fat chick and forget about it. keep bettin every game you have an edge

[SteveB]

Have had some runs like that....but have also gone 30-5 in a week. It happens....keep grinding.

[Le_Donk]

just variance , but im sure you know that ( br managment is the key )
if i hit a downswing like that, i take 1 or 2 nights off , review my plays and play less games.
justin, do you think that a lot of good handicappers fail to be long term successful because of a bad bank roll managment ?

[Sunde91]

If your betting method remains consistent with what you've always done, there's no empirical justification for taking a break because of a bad run, as a bad run is just a description of the recent past, not a prediction of the future. But I think we all feel how real bad luck and momentum are when we hit these slumps.

I went on a 5-22 drought in October and swear there was a magical force working against me. A streak like that will eventually hit everyone, and it will demoralize you to an extent no matter who you are. If you feel it getting to you too much, take a break. Otherwise, maybe just cut your number of plays down and zero in more only on your high confidence plays, instead of playing 3-5 a day or w/e.

[frostno98]

Take a good 5 days off to refresh your mind and then keep firing away as usual.

[brad89]

HE ASKED FOR ADVICE or maybe you cannot read , dork

He asked a question, to which he knows the answer.

[DrStale]

HE ASKED FOR ADVICE

or maybe you cannot read , dork

Haha, well clearly one of us can't read. He definitely did not ask for advice. Moron.

[Justin7]

fade yourself, seriously fade your own leans

Never post in the HTT. Seriously, if you're thinking about it, turn off your computer.

[B1GER1C828]

Simply take a day or 2 off and other than that, don't change anything.

46-26-1 feels good, 26-46-1 jsut feels like shit but it happens. You'll obviously rebound.

[Justin7]

If you're betting method remains consistent with what you've always done, there's no empirical justification for taking a break because of a bad run, as a bad run is just a description of the recent past, not a prediction of the future. But I think we all feel how real bad luck and momentum are when we hit these slumps.

I went on a 5-22 drought in October and swear there was a magical force working against me. A streak like that will eventually hit everyone, and it will demoralize you to an extent no matter who you are. If you feel it getting to you too much, take a break. Otherwise, maybe just cut your number of plays down and zero in more only on your high confidence plays, instead of playing 3-5 a day or w/e.

Sunde,

You're the only one anywhere close.

If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

Sunde, You're the only one anywhere close. If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

Good question, I think you need to analyze the losses. Figure out if your losing significantly or just catching a couple bad breaks. This is why I think to be successful you also have to posess instincts and intuition. If you don't know why your losing, than that is what you first need to pinpoint and then go from there.

[P.F.Kasooff]

26-46-1

Means nothing if you are a good handicapper. Plan your work then work your plan.

[biff]

look at me i'm justin with what it looks like an avatar from star wars or a video game. my shit doesnt stink and i bitch at people just trying to give me advice. why you ask? because im better then you and im a mod!

go fuk off.

[szk1983]

bad runs happen, as do good runs. You're due for a good run.

[Justin7]

26-46-1

Means nothing if you are a good handicapper. Plan your work then work your plan.

Possible epic fail.

[t-wizzle]

Sunde,

You're the only one anywhere close.

If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

What do you mean by "market got smarter?" Everyone has their own unique approach so are you saying that the market got smarter as if to say that they have now adjusted based a greater amount of data?

[biff]

man you are a freaking dick.

[HoulihansTX]

Money management.

Its about the only thing you have control of B4 the game starts, and which side you bet on.

[robzilla]

"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." --Dr. Phil

[paco]

Tequila. Coke. Bang stripper.

Come back Fresh as a baby wipe.

[boondoggle]

This is quite complicated. How does one assess a negative N game betting pattern. Many bettors would simply call it variance and move on. Is it variance or has the market started utilizing new data that your model lacks?

I would continue to use the model but use smaller wagers. Since you are a high volume bettor, you will know relatively soon if its variance or a bad model.

[Jonah]

I like how you keep your unit size the same tho. I was like 14-11 yesterday, but got killed cause I went heavy on Saint Mary's, USF(knew it was a fishy line) and Oregon State. Chased with Stanford also. Crazy push with Michigan State. Not to mention I did not do my HW and missed that Stokes was out for Villanova and Aiden was out for Wash State. Lazy.

Absolutely swept the board today, save for Ohio State which I had no business being involved with, but my funds were so depleted it did not matter.

You'll come out of it. These few weeks are brutal for college basketball season. A lot of teams have packed it in or don't think the games changes much for them. And then you have a ton of bubble teams that do need to win desperately, but are showing why they are bubble teams to begin with with their choking performances.

[tony_come]

Having a strong stomach is the key

[obamaismyuncle]

Tequila. Coke. Bang stripper.

Come back Fresh as a baby wipe.

[wrongturn]

What about the 3 days before the bad run, or 3 weeks before the bad run? If the win rate in larger window is still close to target, then keep doing. Otherwise... no idea

[pavyracer]

I just don't let it go to 26-46-1. At 4-8-0 I quit since I'm not good at it and end up losing just 4.5 units instead of 24.5. You got to know when to quit in gambling when you suck at it.

[Ben Dover]

Sunde,

You're the only one anywhere close.

If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

lol at market getting smarter.

Look:
Its allways you against the oddsmaker. If you`r better than him, you`ll end up +units in the longrun. (you know this)

Keep doing your own thing and find the mistakes the oddsmakers make.

[Iceman]

Don't change a thing.

The ONLY answer to this question. You can't predict streaks so just keep plugging along changing absolutely nothing.

[magynuck]

Assuming you checked to see that the "market did not get smarter" by seeing how your picks fared versus the closing line, I do not want to do anything in terms of my betting. There is no discounting the psychological pressure you can feel after a bad day(s). You need to do whatever helps you not think about the results. I am doing that today after +18 units Saturday was -10 yesterday. Three hour walk for me, one hour run, sit in sun read with wife, booked tour to Gibraltar, and upgraded hotel for next week. Always live life to the fullest. If you are fortunate enough to have the skills and temperament to do this for a living the number one reason is for the flexibility it gives you.

[Iceman]

Also another way too check if you are "playing well" is too not look at the results of those past 73 games or so but instead to look at how you did against the closing line against those plays as doing this is more of a predicitor of future success (or failure) than the results of those 73 games. You get much better, accurate information on your abilites as a capper when you compare how you and how your methods are doing versus the closing line than you do following the actual results of the game.

On a side note: I average I 100 plays a week and have one bad week a month on average. You cannot predict streaks.

[str]

Sorry I missed this yesterday .
I personally never play anywhere near that many games.Right for me , but to each his own.I play 99.5% underdogs.Favorites of -1 or maybe -2 only.This is a flaw( I suppose) that it is hard for me to get past .I do throw away a lot of favorite opportunities but one could also say that I avoid many dog losses by recognizing that the only side is the favorite and I will not play that side.I can not play a side in which my team is not playing for me.Taking a knee in football on the 5 yard line,prevent defense or letting a team score a basket because 2 points can not hurt them but beats me, etc.might be for some guys but no way I put myself in the spot.
When losing streaks hit,I play very sporadically, and in most cases, not at all for awhile.I continue to monitor the lines closely. This allows me to see scores objectively and clear my mind. It also allows me to see the whole picture of college hoops,MLB,NFL,or whatever.I basically gather new information in the middle of the season.Call it starting over while 1/2 way through.
The reason for this is simple. Before any season,I will study. I put in the time to be prepared.I rarely start off losing.So for me, and before I give back all my profit,I start over.I will even divide the season in to two parts on my ledger of plays.That allows me to review my body of work at the end of the season and again before the beginning of the next season.
Also, always the same unit.My theory is again quite simple.If a play is strong enough to invest in, you do.No double plays or the only game on, and doubling up or chasing is out of the question.It is nothing more than fool's gold . Plenty to learn from watching a game without a side.Objective viewing is what I call it.
This method has worked very well for me for 30+ years.Not to say that I haven't had losing seasons in a particular sport over the years but the overall bottom line quite satisfying.
Best of Luck.