How'd your last 1,102 wagers workout?

[FourLengthsClear]

the only possible way to have a losing record and be profitable is to lose the small ones and win the big ones consistently


unless he bets a shitload of moneyline dogs

Doesn't have to be a "shitload" based on the numbers posted.

[statnerds]

Only bet Dog MLs in hockey and futbol. Everything else is -110. Mostly Dogs in MLB as well, but the time frame presented here excludes that.

I cap my own NFL plays, but that is it. So of the what, 1,200 or so plays listed, maybe 30-40 of them were my plays.

The Market adjusts. Now 150 games may not be enough to say that about Helmut, but it is a distinct possibility. So when I am searching for angles and ways to win, I want to do my best to ensure that they are opportunities that will exist regardless of Market corrections.

One of the big advantages to this approach is not capping every game as a single event, even though it is one independent event. But when you take the accumulated results of 500, 1,000 or 2,500 of these single events you will find patterns. Of course, so will others, but the number of people that fail to look past the single game to the underlying probabilities will always outnumber us.

For instance, I have data covering 20,000+ single events that give me an idea of what any 1,500 or 2,000 game sample will look like.

You know what? Never mind. I can see this turning into a lengthy, rambling post where I try to explain a few things without giving away secrets, but it wouldn't work.

I used to think some sharps on here were assholes for not sharing certain things. But after working my ass off on some of the things I discovered to be profitable long term, I'll be damned if I just give them away. And it isn't me being a dick, but what if 1 guy out of a few hundred picks up on it, follows and wins? Then he tells a few people, which turns into more people, and there goes my edge.

I now respect those guys.

[G's pks]

I can see this turning into a lengthy, rambling post where I try to explain a few things without giving away secrets, but it wouldn't work.

you try to explain things without giving out secrets????

Your only secret is you are a lifetime 40 something percent capper...

[statnerds]

My only secret, actually 2 secrets, neither of which well-guarded, are:

1. going 111-84 +80.20 Units the last 3 NFL seasons and

2. going 164-130 +40.73 the last 4 NFL seasons on a forum akin to SBR, but with a much different flavor.

See, your problem is you let emotion dictate everything you direct towards me, even the lies. Which we both know I have documented and can prove, much like the 2 records mentioned above. You are either too stubborn or too stupid to realize that a 4 year run of 55%+ is world class performance. That is not bragging, that is reality.

You are also one of the few people that keep me from posting every NFL play on this forum.

[durito]

doing better, only lost like 10k this month

[statnerds]

doing better, only lost like 10k this month

Well played sir.

I thought the other post about losing was borderline truth, now I know you are making with the pulling of the leg.

[durito]

Well played sir.

I thought the other post about losing was borderline truth, now I know you are making with the pulling of the leg.

They are both the truth. Worst run ever. Ran really good the last 5 months of last year though.

[vyomguy]

55% is not a world class performance you idiot.

[sharpcat]

I've lost about 20% of my balance from 3 weeks ago

Looking forward to March.

[statnerds]

55% is not a world class performance you idiot.

wow

just wow

Durito and Sharpcat - WTF? If you guys are having extended losing periods, what does that mean for us not so sharp players. Trying to build a style that can withstand Variance, as long as it isn't prolonged, in terms of months.

And now a pep talk for you both:

Hang in there champ. You can do this. Once you determine the reason for the bad run, rather it be bad luck, variance or a constantly evolving market, you will be fine. You are smarter than 98% of the board, including me and vyomguy. Now get out there and win some fukkin wagers!!!!!

[G's pks]

wow

just wow

Durito and Sharpcat - WTF? If you guys are having extended losing periods, what does that mean for us not so sharp players. Trying to build a style that can withstand Variance, as long as it isn't prolonged, in terms of months.

And now a pep talk for you both:

Hang in there champ. You can do this. Once you determine the reason for the bad run, rather it be bad luck, variance or a constantly evolving market, you will be fine. You are smarter than 98% of the board, including me and vyomguy. Now get out there and win some fukkin wagers!!!!!

I saw a site with your picks for a year and either they are lying or you are lying! You had a losing record and were under 50%...

[ApricotSinner32]

Clearly not too many bright fuks on here.

If you hit 55% on -105's/-110's through 50,000 plays betting 1k a game you'll be rich.

[G's pks]

Clearly not too many bright fuks on here.

If you hit 55% on -105's/-110's through 50,000 plays betting 1k a game you'll be rich.

according to a monitored pick site than statnerds is poor so do not worry he does not fall into that group...

[vyomguy]

Clearly not too many bright fuks on here. If you hit 55% on -105's/-110's through 50,000 plays betting 1k a game you'll be rich.

Clearly statnerds is not rich...since he has won $800 over 1000 plays .

Guy is just a show-off. The real sharps are those who dont post here much and just observe. People like statnerds think they are sharp just coz they have models. I havent seen a model which hits more than 55% over long term so far. Any fuk with a stat degree can create a model. Heck, I am computer science major and I can create a decent model in 1 day....big fukking deal. In fact, I created one over the weekend coz of boredom. It was hitting 54% in NCAAB totals over 7 years worth of data.

Just because Durito and Sharpcat have stat models...doesnt make them smarter than 98% of the board.

Oh, and any 3rd grader can do scalping and arbing if he has access to multiple off-shore accounts. Dont need "sharp" skills for it.

[statnerds]

I saw a site with your picks for a year and either they are lying or you are lying! You had a losing record and were under 50%...

Here is your chance tough guy. Strictly NFL records mentioned in this thread.

We only charge for NFL and Bowl Season. Tried some free MLB service this year based on a system I developed over 4 years that fell flat on it's face. That officially ends our foray into baseball.

Give the name of the site, since we use 4 monitoring sites, although had to drop 1. They weren't putting up lines until Sunday. No way in hell to beat the Market unless you can hit lines early. But they changed that policy to posting lines on Tuesday, so will be using them again next year. Back up to 4 monitors.

So, give the name right here ___________________.

[statnerds]

Think of the money you could have made yourself, instead of being an abusive, loud-mouthed liar...

[G's pks]

Here is your chance tough guy. Strictly NFL records mentioned in this thread.

We only charge for NFL and Bowl Season. Tried some free MLB service this year based on a system I developed over 4 years that fell flat on it's face. That officially ends our foray into baseball.

Give the name of the site, since we use 4 monitoring sites, although had to drop 1. They weren't putting up lines until Sunday. No way in hell to beat the Market unless you can hit lines early. But they changed that policy to posting lines on Tuesday, so will be using them again next year. Back up to 4 monitors.

So, give the name right here ___________________.

Not allowed to post links it was a site you dropped at end of year...they had you under 50%...

[statnerds]

Not allowed to post links it was a site you dropped at end of year...they had you under 50%...

1. Never asked for a link.

2. Was Over .500 the entire season.

3. Dropped 1 monitor and it was after 2 weeks, cause of the late line posting shit.

4. Did you just get caught lying again?

5. Are you posting the next response, or your ghost?

[G's pks]

ever heard of a site called track picks???

Here you go skippy! And as I said below 50%... % then wins and losses

Statnerds
49.59%301/306

[Norris olin]

I have started my workout routine few month ago and join the gym.
now i feel more strong, active and get some strength.

[statnerds]

ever heard of a site called track picks???

Here you go skippy! And as I said below 50%... % then wins and losses

Statnerds
49.59%301/306

Pretty sure didn't drop Trackpicks. They generate revenue for me.

Funny how we have such a different take. Maybe you should read post #50 again:

Picks by Statnerds
Dates: 3/2/2008 - 3/2/2011
League: NFL
Pick Status: All Picks
Pick Type: All
Earned Units: All Wins Losses Percentage Earned Units 82 57 58.99% 74.57 Average Earned Units per Win Average Earned Units per Loss Is Percentage Significantly Different from 50%? Average Earned Units per Play 2.49 -2.28 Chi Square=4.50
Yes, Significantly Higher than 50% 0.5365
or
$53.65
Man, that table looks awesome right now, but it won't keep the format. And I'm too tired to use snagit and blow it up for you...

[statnerds]

So just no way to get the table in there huh?

Well, let us highlight the important part

82W 57 L 58.99% + 74.57Units



Is Percentage Significantly Different from 50%?

Chi Square=4.50
Yes, Significantly Higher than 50%

[Norris olin]

I have started my workout routine few month ago and join the gym.
now i feel more strong, active and get some strength.

Baltimore fitness

[statnerds]

This sums up my last 3 weeks:



304-323 -$41.60

972 - 1,029 +$590.50

[vyomguy]

This sums up my last 3 weeks: 304-323 -$41.60 972 - 1,029 +$590.50

You should quit gambling if you making $590 over 1029 plays...seriously its not worth sweating out 1029 plays to only make a measly $590.

[beerman2619]

I lose then i reload and i lose some more. Starting to think i should just stick to what i do best drinking

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

ABOUT 1102-0

[Johnnythunder]

You should quit gambling if you making $590 over 1029 plays...seriously its not worth sweating out 1029 plays to only make a measly $590.

The guy would make so much more as a 12/hr pencil pusher. I agree with you 100 percent. I made 500 for watching this guys house for the weekend. Could not imagine wasting so much time for 590 dollars.

[8ArIvd5]

I'm under 50%, but I've already earned a mini-meal.

[statnerds]

You should quit gambling if you making $590 over 1029 plays...seriously its not worth sweating out 1029 plays to only make a measly $590.

I will give you my PayPal account and expect your measly $590 to be deposited within a week...

And again, if you are focusing on dollar amounts you are missing the boat. Still more than an 8% profit since December 6th. So you need to go back to the previous posts dealing with BR, proper money management as reflected in the % per play and the volume needed to generate expected returns.

The figure also fails to take in to account the $1,650 I beat my local for in the NFL this season.

Seriously can't remember the last time I "sweated out" any play. I place my bets, the book grades my bet, I track my wins and losses weekly to make sure the perceived edge I have is indeed there and producing results. Sweating out plays is for amateurs that bet too much money, or veterans that are simply addicted to the action.

For real, if any of you sit down and figure out the BR you would need to bet for a living, compared to the volume you would need, along with the winning percentage you would need, you would quickly realize that 99% of SBR is full of shit.

[xyzky]

I am up over 45k in the past month at bookmaker and never mention it. Be humble man.

Didnt you just mention it?

[wiffle]

55% is not a world class performance you idiot.

yeah, it's too high

[wiffle]

You should quit gambling if you making $590 over 1029 plays...seriously its not worth sweating out 1029 plays to only make a measly $590.

3 or 4k a year for a hobby that most people lose money in (not sure how they lose money tho tbh) isn't bad

[statnerds]

Just to use math once again to illustrate the validity it can lend, or remove, to a claim.

$45K in winnings in a month?

Please provide any of the evidence you deem relevant: average bet size, that $45K returned as a % of your BR or winning percentage.

[Duff85]

These clowns that are hating stat - they make 1-2 bets a day probably. Hence they can't fathom that 1,500 plays can be made over the space of a couple of weeks.