UNC -3 = Square.com?

[remmy358]

No doubt KU is making it rain, but UNC doing everything they can to play like a high school team = fix.

lol get real with the "FIX"...first off, games are fixed by the ref's, and they fix totals....players dont fix the game unless they are meaningless games in small conferences...

[unde0087]

wow, it is a quite the route going on right now, bookies dancing in the streets

[raiders72002]

Great call BOT

But if you look at games in the national spotlight, with traditional basketball names(UNC/duke/etc), and with line movement in the favorites favor or no line movement at all, you will see your % rises WELL above 50%

Don't teach those that think they know it all. It can be frustrating.

[Weezy F.]

lol get real with the "FIX"...first off, games are fixed by the ref's, and they fix totals....players dont fix the game unless they are meaningless games in small conferences...

What? You think players don't throw games? Get real..

[BigOrangeTitans]

wasn't a trap or fix.. But nonetheless

Traps are in the bettor's mind, you are correct IMGV. What you follow here is this: KU was the best team comin into the tourney (Favorite to win in biggest % of brackets.) As i said a hundred times, phuckin DAVIDSON was legit phuckin ELITE team. Davidson would have SMOKED UCLA. KU/Memphis been top 2 all year. That Davidson game was a blessing, as if that was nonexistent, the line would have been KU -3 or more. North carolina has been getting patted on the back all tourney, sleepin in their own beds and shit. Maybe they did so well cus they were like phuckin 20-1 in tourney games in charlotte?

Homefield adv in a NCAA tourney is a huge phuckin advantage.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Great call BOT

Don't teach those that think they know it all. It can be frustrating.

Yeah, but I dont like goin to the phucken window by myself sometimes

That jersey UNC wears costs you a few points by itself every game...

[imgv94]

Davidson was for real.. This game is even proving it more.

[awhitejackson]

I agree on your Davidson thoughts completely...just took a while to come around (like most people)

[goldengoat]

Davidson was for real.. This game is even proving it more.

davidson was definitely for real but I think NC would beat them

davidson was refreshing for the tourney though

[supershark]

davidson is for real
louisville is for real
north carolina is for real
just because they came out flat shooting under 30% and turning the ball over on every second possesion has little to nothing to do with davidson. You guys gotta watch more games and make judgments on how good a team is off that rather than trying to some ncaamath

[BigOrangeTitans]

Easiest MFing win ever. Didnt need the generous points that the UNC jerseys gave me

Grats to all tha followed!

Trap plays brought to you by BetOnTargetBOTsports.com

[frostno98]

Bookies desperately needed this win, after the public went heavy on memphis earlier.

[hi-rez]

Is there a rough figure for what is expected percentage-wise for money on the favorite versus the dog? I guess it would be easy to calculate the mean if you have the data.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Is there a rough figure for what is expected percentage-wise for money on the favorite versus the dog? I guess it would be easy to calculate the mean if you have the data.

theres a lot of screens. Its based on my thread "Fading the public... MArch madness" in the think tank. People will laugh about how fadin the public's been around forever, its barely 50%, etc,etc. But when you filter it using the right stipulations (i.e National exposure, so call "americas" teams(north car, duke, kentucky, etc, in which public opinion may be higher than say, the same amount of talent at a school such as Davidson.)

So they set "america's" team at a small line, something between a 2 and 5 point line in most cases, in which your average bettor is going to just take the favorite because thats the team thats hot. Thats the team that won by 25+ppg margin in the tourney.

They dont realize that they had a cakewalk through their court to do that, and now they have to play on a real stage. Thats why the line was so low. Books usually have a good ideawhich side of the line is right(thats why they stay afloat) and they know that the folks that are going to hammer the bad line, are going to hammer it HARD, and Joe dumbass says "NC dropped to -3? Thats a lock!) Really? Thats your best bet? it should have been KU -3, but they know what theyre doing.

I would say, using my filter with so called "americas" team, its an easy 75%. With regular faves in national spotlight, its about 65%+. You can find the threads if you dig...

only thing is, these games are not up every night... sometimes only a select few a year, but traps exist, and its not due to fixes. Follow the stats...

[chipski]

wtf ? so if Unc had won then what ? Was simple 50/50 , because Kansas won there is all this bs talk .
Did Ucla win ?
The public was all over Memp just like they were on Unc .
So it turned out 50/50 . SPLIT !
Whenever a game comes out where someone can put logic to it there is talk like this . If they miss it then they even have the nerve to put logic to the loss , lol .
The factors that caused Unc to lose the public will never know , Unc played like shit period . If they played again on sunday the 1st half would look nothing like it did tonight .
Swing !

[BigOrangeTitans]

wtf ? so if Unc had won then what ? Was simple 50/50 , because Kansas won there is all this bs talk .
Did Ucla win ?
The public was all over Memp just like they were on Unc .
So it turned out 50/50 . SPLIT !
Whenever a game comes out where someone can put logic to it there is talk like this . If they miss it then they even have the nerve to put logic to the loss , lol .
The factors that caused Unc to lose the public will never know , Unc played like shit period . If they played again on sunday the 1st half would look nothing like it did tonight .
Swing !

If you check my PHUCKIN thread in my signature, you WILL see i played memphis -2 YOU PHUCKIN ass.

So no, it wasnt a split, not to mention the goddamn details. Memphis was favored at 60% and the line MOVED from -1 to -2.5.

NCar was -4 then -3 and they were favored at 70%.

Thus, you have to have filters, thats what that long post explains. IF you people read, you MIGHT PHUCKIN LEARN HOW TO FIND THESE.

This isnt an, "theres a lot of people on team A so im taking Team b" trend. Theres filters, which you conveniently skipped through. Thats why your getting pissed at me for posting a WINNER. Your really pissed at your own ignorance, we all know the truth

[YoungMoney23]

nice call BOT good season bro

[frostno98]

I think fading the public works more on NFL and ranked College games because vegas are super sharp on their lines, that why basketball has been more profitable for me during the last 4 years. Although UNC lost this game, they were heavily picked by the public during their last 4 games and covered all of it easily. If you were to go with BOT fading theory, you'd be broke, you be 1 to 4.

[mofome]

bot is good at what he does

[diogee]

He only fades the public when the line moves against them (aka smart/sharp money on the other side) with a high % on their side. Makes sense to me and I am quite new to gambling.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I think fading the public works more on NFL and ranked College games because vegas are super sharp on their lines, that why basketball has more profitable for me during the last 4 years. Although UNC lost this game, they were heavily picked by the public during their last 4 games and covered all of it easily. If you were to go with BOT fading theory, you'd be broke, you be 1 to 4.

Frost, i believe if you check my signature link, it shows my 55% season stats, and the 50+ units.

Secondly, if you check the "fading the public" thread, Its over 50% at 14-12 and that is with "minimal" filters.

Wheres your numbers FROST, because mine are RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank-67/fading-public-march-madness-64349-p2.html

Show me where im hitting 20%? Thats why you get taken, because you think you already know everything.

[chipski]

I think fading the public works more on NFL and ranked College games because vegas are super sharp on their lines, that why basketball has been more profitable for me during the last 4 years. Although UNC lost this game, they were heavily picked by the public during their last 4 games and covered all of it easily. If you were to go with BOT fading theory, you'd be broke, you be 1 to 4.

EXACTLY

[diogee]

This really isn't a hard concept to grasp.

[frostno98]

He only fades the public when the line moves against them (aka smart/sharp money on the other side) with a high % on their side. Makes sense to me and I am quite new to gambling.

If you were paying any attention to VegasInsider's money movement on UNC during their last 4 game, it was no difference than it was today. Heavily onsided from the public on UNC, which they covered easily. Explain that!

[BigOrangeTitans]

This really isn't a hard concept to grasp.

Dio, do they have brains? How else can i explain this?
The link is RIGHT THERE You can verify that without ANY filters it hit 14-12.

And if you cant do that, look at my threads on other trap games. You'll see that record is much better than the garbage coming out of any phuckin touthouse, and I'M doing it for FREE. Giving you different info about how to improve your capping, isnt because i get paid to do it. I'm only TRYING to help you people not get phuckin buried by a weak line set up. Also trying to prove how you can successfully fade the public if you have the right variables.

[SBR Lou]

BOT, are you waiting until Monday to take Memphis (I read that you liked them currently at -1 or so), to see if you get a better # or what? If some Kansas money pours in there may be a small + (ML) opportunity for Memphis.

[BigOrangeTitans]

If you were paying any attention to VegasInsider's money movement on UNC during their last 4 game, it was no difference than it was today. Heavily onsided from the public on UNC, which they covered easily. Explain that!

Thats it exactly, it DIDNT MOVE. The memphis line went from - 1 to - 2.5, therefore excluding it.

If i were trying to get equal action on both sides and i have 75% of my bets coming on Ncar -3 and it stays at Ncar-3, that means the 25% is betting the line harder and with bigger wagers.
This isnt new people, if you dont understand why lines should move, you need to start over and buy a few books instead of just looking at rebounds and FT percentages.

[diogee]

If you were paying any attention to VegasInsider's money movement on UNC during their last 4 game, it was no difference than it was today. Heavily onsided from the public on UNC, which they covered easily. Explain that!

It is not only in which team it is favored...once again I will state that it is if the line moves against
the public which is an indication of heavy smart money on the opposite side....would you rather be on the side of the public or the sharps the majority of the time??? Very easy to answer.

[RescueMe]

OK, everybody made his/her point heard, so what is a big deal. I picked UNC as soon as line came out thinking its gonna go up and when it didn't iust suck it up and tried to cover lost. as far as I know several legit members of our forum picked UNC too for deferent reasons and to be honest this game smelled funny from the first whistle that why there were no actions for me on 2H.
Public picked UNC 2H comeback heavily and they did came back just to tease us.
So, lets congratulate BOT and move on, as for me:
Mem -2 W
UNC -3 L
KS?UNC U 160 W
2-1 is good enough!!!
GL tomorrow everyone!

[BigOrangeTitans]

BOT, are you waiting until Monday to take Memphis (I read that you liked them currently at -1 or so), to see if you get a better # or what? If some Kansas money pours in there may be a small + (ML) opportunity for Memphis.

Can still get it at a pk em Crazyl. 5dimes did have it.. which i think is about the best you'll get. You can get memphis +1 -112 at matchbook, and i am currently buyin as much of that as possible, if the line does improve past a pkem i would be surprised at this point. WAY too much money on memphis, moved the opener 2.5 points in less than a hour...

[frostno98]

Frost, i believe if you check my signature link, it shows my 55% season stats, and the 50+ units.

Secondly, if you check the "fading the public" thread, Its over 50% at 14-12 and that is with "minimal" filters.

Wheres your numbers FROST, because mine are RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank-67/fading-public-march-madness-64349-p2.html

Show me where im hitting 20%? Thats why you get taken, because you think you already know everything.

I agree with your fading theory, I just don't think it really applies to basketball games, Because I lost and won many doing just that. I always look at money movement before placing any of my bets to figure why the hell everyone would betting this way or that way. And why would vegas make such lines the way it is.

I can go on and on about this, but inside info on last to minute game time player's injuries or who's in a shooting slump gives you a better prediction of the likely outcome of the game, than just strictly fading the public.

[awhitejackson]

Dio, do they have brains? How else can i explain this?
The link is RIGHT THERE You can verify that without ANY filters it hit 14-12.

And if you cant do that, look at my threads on other trap games. You'll see that record is much better than the garbage coming out of any phuckin touthouse, and I'M doing it for FREE. Giving you different info about how to improve your capping, isnt because i get paid to do it. I'm only TRYING to help you people not get phuckin buried by a weak line set up. Also trying to prove how you can successfully fade the public if you have the right variables.

Im a new disciple to dude's theoretical perspectives...Has called three straight trap plays while backing it up by presenting his capping methodology as well as reasons for his decisions....Very thorough..no tout here.....Im on board...just wish we had some more NCAAB this year.....

[BigOrangeTitans]

Goodjob RM, if i didnt use this to filter out fishy lines i would have gotten caught up to, as initially i like UNC. Then i looked deeper, and realized that they were the team with the cakewalk here, not KU.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Im a new disciple to dude's theoretical perspectives...Has called three straight trap plays while backing it up by presenting his capping methodology as well as reasons for his decisions....Very thorough..no tout here.....Im on board...just wish we had some more NCAAB this year.....

Thanks man. Its not just a simple fade the public thing. You gotta go deeper. This has been around forever, and to be honest, its almost wrong to just give you guys this information spoon fed, as i have won and lost a million fortunes figuring out true "traps" and what makes them identifiable.

If you take my "fading the public" thread, and do some research, you'll be able to find other filters that can make this better. In the conference tourneys, this system hit at over 70%. Remember all the faves went down, and noone could figure it out? well I was the guy betting the "bad lines" and more oft than not, kickin ass.

Ask anyone here, I do not tout, i simply post. I like to have ideas bounced off others, and therefore its worth it to share something you know can be valuable. Remember, BoT is NOT on the books side gents

[imgv94]

Im a new disciple to dude's theoretical perspectives...Has called three straight trap plays while backing it up by presenting his capping methodology as well as reasons for his decisions....Very thorough..no tout here.....Im on board...just wish we had some more NCAAB this year.....