List the factors you consider when capping a baseball game

[mofome]

humidity?
wind?
park?
availability of Rps?
specific matchups SP v Batter?

[Kellen]

SP, Park, RP (usage lately), individual performance vs certain pitcher/hitter, weather not so much,

[mofome]

i like to check the wind when a finesse pitcher is on the hill. a bit harder to locate and that gives the opposition an advantage

[thegreatdiatchi]

batting avg vs starting pitcher, whether the stadium is a pitcher's or hitter's park (for determining how well the guys who either hr or strike out do), usage of bullpen in last 3 games, injury reports, overall team momentum going into matchup.

I would never think to check the wind but Mo has a point. I'm looking forward to seeing what other people say here since i'm shit at capping bases.

[diogee]

Fading the -200 Bank it lock of the day has to lead to profit in the long run

[buztah]

Starting pitchers and the bull pens. 90% of my analysis lies there. 10% focuses on hitting.

[TexansFan]

I just go through the various forums and anyone who says their game is a "lock" then I bet it.

[Sportsgirl]

I look at the uniforms and who has the nicest "doop."

[frankiecheese]

Past History

I do some research on current winning streaks/losing streaks; how each team has done against each other the last 10 games; history of SP versus opposing team.

Now -- I am going to add the doop factor; also like the bullpen factor as well.

[Willie Bee]

Opposing starting pitchers (history against teams assuming lineups are roughly the same)
Current injuries
Current streaks by either or both teams
Whether or not the closer has pitched the last 2-3 nights in a row
Weather
Umpires
Price of hot dogs

[mofome]

I do some research on current winning streaks/losing streaks; how each team has done against each other the last 10 games; history of SP versus opposing team.

Now -- I am going to add the doop factor; also like the bullpen factor as well.

the doop factor seems important. good thing we have nance.


i like streaks.

[austintx05]

i like to check the wind when a finesse pitcher is on the hill. a bit harder to locate and that gives the opposition an advantage

believe it or not a lot of bettors look at weather and it is one of the most overrated topics to look at...

how pitchers perform in certain parks is much more insightful, just go take a look at Kenny Rogers in Oakland.

[Willie Bee]

Weather might be overrated for moneyline or run line bets, austin, but if you just totally ignore the weather and you're a totals player, then you're going to be in trouble.

[Sportsgirl]

Opposing starting pitchers (history against teams assuming lineups are roughly the same)
Current injuries
Current streaks by either or both teams
Whether or not the closer has pitched the last 2-3 nights in a row
Weather
Umpires
Price of hot dogs

You should also factor in the price of and the quality of beer they have.

[austintx05]

Weather might be overrated for moneyline or run line bets, austin, but if you just totally ignore the weather and you're a totals player, then you're going to be in trouble.

ahh yes, but I am not talking totals.

[SBR Lou]

Weather might be overrated for moneyline or run line bets, austin, but if you just totally ignore the weather and you're a totals player, then you're going to be in trouble.

Can't believe you predicted the Yankees under the win total.

Wouldn't be surprised if they won over 100.

[Kellen]

Only thing I look at is who the favorites in Vegas are.

[diogee]

Only thing I look at is who the favorites in Vegas are.

I will be able to read our signatures for the next month and still laugh.

[mofome]

Can't believe you predicted the Yankees under the win total.

Wouldn't be surprised if they won over 100.

are you in on the over?

[Sportsgirl]

the doop factor seems important. good thing we have nance.


i like streaks.

I will be happy to review the doop factor prior to games and report my findings to the forum. Shall we settle on a 1-10 rating scale? It'll be a tough job, but I feel I should step up to the plate (pun intended).

[SBR Lou]

are you in on the over?

Yes. They'll win 75 games now I'm sure.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Only thing I look at is who the favorites in Vegas are.

Ditto that!

[EaglesPhan36]

Mostly pitchers vs. the team they are playing.
Road/Home splits for pitchers.
Wind only when betting totals at Wrigley.

Otherwise I think weather can sometimes be an over-rated factor unless we're talking snow flurries and temps in the 30s or below. Otherwise, 40s or 50s isn't really going to impact a game that much as who is pitching.

[Willie Bee]

ahh yes, but I am not talking totals.

Which brings up a topic for this thread to possibly split off to: What factors are most important for making a moneyline wager? Run line? Totals?

[Willie Bee]

Can't believe you predicted the Yankees under the win total.

Wouldn't be surprised if they won over 100.

You might be right. There are several teams that wouldn't necessarily surprise me if they reached the 100-W plateau. Most of what go into my win totals are predicated on a very simple sim program, and there are a lot of intangibles that the software doesn't consider. It's also designed to bring teams more towards the mean instead of to the extreme.

Did you jump on the Over, crazy?

[austintx05]

Which brings up a topic for this thread to possibly split off to: What factors are most important for making a moneyline wager? Run line? Totals?

totals: tired pens & ballpark
run line: I evaluate teams before the season starts as run line teams and non run line teams, which helps me stay disciplined.
moneyline: strong bullpens, overvalued SP, streaks apply to both RL/ML.

[MonkeyF0cker]

1. Starting pitchers wives' bra size
2. How many licks it takes for each batter to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop.
3. Which closer orders cheese on their Whopper.

[Sportsgirl]

1. Starting pitchers wives' bra size
2. How many licks it takes for each batter to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop.
3. Which closer orders cheese on their Whopper.

Solid post.

[Iwinyourmoney]

flip a coin

[pico]

1. how many locks are one team.
2. how did my coin flip turned out.

[Shark79]

1. Starting pitchers wives' bra size
2. How many licks it takes for each batter to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop.
3. Which closer orders cheese on their Whopper.

[Sportsgirl]

1. how many locks are one team.
2. how did my coin flip turned out.

I think with this system in place, even as a woman, I could help pick games.

[Shark79]

1. Which Pitcher is sober
2. How hard did the line up partied night before
3. How many of them got laid and how many girls were involved
4. If the refs were invited

[indy62]

im mostly a totals player so wind,weather,layout pitching are all important

[jjgold]

Pitchers
Pitchers