st peters -2.5 tomorrow

[zephyr]

Sorry guys. I scooped up all that siena +111 at matchbook an hour ago before the line got nuked.

Nice. I just put down a play at +100, and I like it.

[nanozane]

iodds shows : 56% on peacocks (674 picks) and 44% on saints (523 picks). Are you sure abt the numbers verdes, I was leaning peacocks all day, but your post convinced me to pick saints.

[nanozane]

RLM game for sure, will be curious to watch this line over the next 5 hours...between the concensus sites and this thread, i think it's safe to say that Joe Public is on St. Peters...from Carib:

#829 9:00pm Siena vs St Peters (ESPNU)
Siena 9.09%
St Peters 90.91%
924 Bets

[COLOR=#000000 ! important] iodds shows : 56% on peacocks (674 picks) and 44% on saints (523 picks). Are you sure abt the numbers verdes, I was leaning peacocks all day, but your post convinced me to pick saints.[/COLOR]

[Hoja Verdes]

iodds shows : 56% on peacocks (674 picks) and 44% on saints (523 picks). Are you sure abt the numbers verdes, I was leaning peacocks all day, but your post convinced me to pick saints.

youve got to be careful when you get your consensus numbers from, and it should be noted that you'll never get a true straight answer. I was just quoting carib specifically. I'll check sportsoptions and report back.

[zephyr]

Here's what I found at thespread.com. St. Peters is blue.

[Hoja Verdes]

What you'll find is that a lot of the sites out there like wagerline (in the past, and others currently) base their consensus numbers on people making random 'picks' rather than on actual number of bets with real money. As for thespread.com and others, I subscribe to the maxim of "you get what you pay for." There's a reason why you have to pay for sportsinsights and sportsoptions, and I'd argue they provide a more accurate picture of the consensus because they are paid services.

[Vince Lombardi]

I'll go with Siena and see what happens.

[No coincidences]

Greek's got Siena at +1/-105 ML. I wouldn't play St. Peters given that.

[Hoja Verdes]

Greek's got Siena at +1/-105 ML. I wouldn't play St. Peters given that.

That's my angle. Follow the money/line movement, i.e. leave the "capping" to the pros and tail them.

[aca]

Best of luck on St. Peter's

[LockPickMaster]

That's my angle. Follow the money/line movement, i.e. leave the "capping" to the pros and tail them.

So the play is still Siena then?

[LockPickMaster]

Down to PK now

[LT Profits]

Siena is now favored at The Greek, Pcik'em at most places.

[Hoja Verdes]

So the play is still Siena then?

Absolutely, but if u hadn't already bet it, id get down now before it gets away from you.

[LockPickMaster]

Absolutely, but if u hadn't already bet it, id get down now before it gets away from you.

I still don't understand how line movement decides who the winner will be. Can you explain that.

[nanozane]

Siena is now favored at The Greek, Pcik'em at most places.

Do you think siena is the right side then LT?

[Hoja Verdes]

I still don't understand how line movement decides who the winner will be. Can you explain that.

it doesnt, necessarily, but its one of many tools. ill elaborate later when im not typing with my right hand and a baby in my left!

[LT Profits]

Do you think siena is the right side then LT?

I had a lean on them this morning at +2, wouldn't touch it now

[LockPickMaster]

I had a lean on them this morning at +2, wouldn't touch it now

Why wouldn't you go with Siena now, trying to figure this all out.

[Hoja Verdes]

Why wouldn't you go with Siena now, trying to figure this all out.

the short answer is that bball is not like football where certain key numbers are much more valuable than others...i.e. on nfl sunday, -2.5 is worlds better than -4.5, whereas -4.5 is only marginally better than -6.5.

in bball, every point is huge, so there's a huge difference if a line moves 2 points against you. as a RAS subscriber, i cannot emphasize this enough. yesterday i misclicked my mouse at release time and got portland state -2.5 instead of -1.5. naturally, they won by 2. i was stupid to bet it. went 3-4 instead of 4-3. doing that often is the difference b/t going 53% vs. 57% in a season.

[terpkeg]

I still don't understand how line movement decides who the winner will be. Can you explain that.

Maybe I can try to help you out.

Line movement does not decide outcome at all. However, one of the factors that moves a line is the amount of money coming in on one team. Therefore, if professional bettors are all hitting the same side you should see some line movement. This obviously does not mean you have a winner, but since pro's hit at a slightly higher rate than the general public, there is a better chance the team getting steamed in the correct side.

However, I think this can be an over emphasized. Because, the pros are also getting a better number contributing to their higher win percentage.

LT Profits probably sets his own lines. He had a lean on Siena at +2, would prbably had played them at +3, but does not like them under +2.

[LockPickMaster]

Siena is -1 at the Greek

[romoney]

Back in the game finally....looks like im gonna roll with Siena +1
its great to be back on SBR

[nanozane]

I had a lean on them this morning at +2, wouldn't touch it now

I might be wrong, but I feel peacocks' defense is just a tad bit better than that of the saints'. I am gonna side with the home team and see what happens. Thanks for your reply LT.

[Hoja Verdes]

I might be wrong, but I feel peacocks' defense is just a tad bit better than that of the saints'. I am gonna side with the home team and see what happens. Thanks for your reply LT.

nothing wrong with that angle at all. especially with a small school like this playing on national tv, i expect the crowd to be amped (i.e. shitfaced).

game about to start, best of luck to everyone, even the st. peters backers.

edit: i'll say this as the game starts. As a former hs/college baller, this stat stuck out to me from St. Pete's leading scorer Jenkins:

Jenkins, a mere 38.8 percent shooter from the field in the 11 games in which he has appeared, is tops on the scoring chart for the Peacocks with his 14.1 ppg, thanks largely to his 47.9 percent accuracy beyond the arc.

^^that's insane. I gotta think that 3 point percentage will come back down to earth at some point. Hope it's tonight!

[tylerguy02]

Late money looked to be on St. Peters

[nanozane]

Late money looked to be on St. Peters

I am trying to learn, how can one tell if there was late money on a team. Is it because the line starts moving the other way? As in: line goes from -2 to PK and then again goes back to -1?

[Hoja Verdes]

This play was subjected to the deathly dual curse of jjgold and broke landers. The siena players caught wind of that and gave up early, knowing they would not only not win but get blown out .

[samgurt]

look at all these fukks who doubt me...unreal.

And they make excuses that jj "jinxed" it. don't play off of superstitions people.