How much of your betting is gut feel and how much is math/statistics?

[mathdotcom]

I think a lot of people on here suffer from "the last 10 coin tosses were heads, so the 11th MUST be tails" syndrome. Someone on here is even trying to make martingale work.

What are other fallacies the common sports bettor falls for?

[louisvillekid]

math? none of it involves math for me.
half-n-half between gut feeling and trends

[The Investor]

if your referring to me, yes im dabbling with a martingale but its not my sole endeavor.

i have a math model im using in the nba forum, i invite you to follow the progress there.

i also am going to have something going for baseball season, that is a non-martingale.

but to better answer your question. handicapping and math for the overall picture and zero gut feel but if im running a particular system, then the system will make the call, as to what is used.

[Shark79]

99.9% Gut - 0.01% Statistics

[mathdotcom]

Thanks for the replies guys, it's what I was expecting.

If you use a trend, I'd consider that partially statistics!

[diogee]

At least 95% trends and stats.

[mofome]

The only math i do is subtraction to make sure my book didn't take even more than they were supposed to. normally they are correct according to my online calculator.

[mathdotcom]

mofo,

you don't withdraw the winnings as wads of $1 bills so you can walk around town like highroller JJ?

[mofome]

mofo,

you don't withdraw the winnings as wads of $1 bills so you can walk around town like highroller JJ?

ive been gambling for 9 years now and im hoping to make my first withdrawal this summer.

[durito]

0% gut

[Santo]

I would say maybe 2% gut / 98% math. The gut part is mainly intangibles like players off an injury or arriving late at a venue / playing after a tournament victory for which there's no quantifiable element and you have to decide the importance.

[durito]

Surely there's an element of this that isn't an exact science, and you do need to be somewhat creative sometimes interpreting numbers. So perhaps I'll change that to 1-2% as well.

Nevertheless, I've found plays that my eyes don't like yet the numbers do, to have been amongst my best performing. It's part of the reason I don't watch many games anymore. Your eyes can only deceive you.

[mathdotcom]

Good points, all.

Imagine this:

Two guys follow the stats/trends equally, while one watches all the games and knows the sport well, while the other one goes to bed early and barely knows the rules of the game?

Who does better?

[The Investor]

they do exactly the same.

[daggerkobe]

99.99% gut

even if 100% stat backs up the other side, i still go with my gut because it knows what its doing.

[Arnold]

Unless bets are made based on a mathematical formula, you're using your gut all the way. Yes, stats, standings, trends, etc, they kind of direct your gut, but it's still gut. Often you need to choose between 2 strong and opposing stats/trends. That's your gut choosing.

[durito]

Good points, all.

Imagine this:

Two guys follow the stats/trends equally, while one watches all the games and knows the sport well, while the other one goes to bed early and barely knows the rules of the game?

Who does better?

Watching and knowing the sport won't get you very far. All the time we have posters here post that they played sport Y and they know that stats are meaningless, thus they know more about handicapping. There's a reason professional athletes make for terrible gamblers. As I said before, your eyes can deceive you -- it's also practically impossible to watch every game or even sufficient numbers games to even concentrate on a select few teams.

I don't handicap baseball, but I can't imagine how watching a particular baseball game could help you handicap future baseball games.

[DukeJohn]

I am definitely not a "true" handicapper. Sure I can pick who will win 70% or better, but beat the spread? Heck no. So, I only follow my predetermined formula. No thinking about it, no looking here or there. Just follow my "system" and money management and that is it. So there are no "gut" picks that I make. Works for me

[acw]

100% statistics, but I do have gut feelings where the public/bookies will be off. Often I become a bit lazy and only focus on those.

[INVEGA MAN]

I am all about stats

[jjgold]

Well stats are not going to make you win, most point spread winners are a flip of a coin regardless of what trends say.

The only math skills that work is when it comes to betting both sides to games and knowing how much to bet on each side to make a profit.

[mathdotcom]

JJ,

When are you gonna eBay your shades? They will fetch top dollar guaranteed.

[INVEGA MAN]

durito
SBR MVP




Join Date: 07-03-06
Location: La Selva Lacandona
Posts: 1,651

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathdotcom
Good points, all.

Imagine this:

Two guys follow the stats/trends equally, while one watches all the games and knows the sport well, while the other one goes to bed early and barely knows the rules of the game?

Who does better?


Watching and knowing the sport won't get you very far. All the time we have posters here post that they played sport Y and they know that stats are meaningless, thus they know more about handicapping. There's a reason professional athletes make for terrible gamblers. As I said before, your eyes can deceive you -- it's also practically impossible to watch every game or even sufficient numbers games to even concentrate on a select few teams.

I don't handicap baseball, but I can't imagine how watching a particular baseball game could help you handicap future baseball games.



Evrybody has a system. I think hard work pays off. I put a lot of time on the game I bet and enjoy it. I learn something everytime I watch A game.

1.Watching a pitcher who has a slow move to 1st trying to pick a player off 1st.

2. A catcher who can't throw his mother out trying to steal

3. A team who can only win at home.

4. a team who can play better away

5. A hitters ball park compared to a pitchers ball park

6. A pitcher owns a team or a team owns a pitcher

You flip your coin and i will check my stats

[MrX]

100% math.

My gut would hate my plays.

My bets look awful to the casual observer. I dread when I glance at a game at the bar and a friend asks who I'm on. The response is usually "What, are you crazy?"

It's usually a bad team and a bad pitcher. Just not quite as bad as everyone thinks.

[INVEGA MAN]

jjgold
SBR Hall of Famer


Join Date: 07-20-05
Posts: 14,216

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Well stats are not going to make you win, most point spread winners are a flip of a coin regardless of what trends say.

The only math skills that work is when it comes to betting both sides to games and knowing how much to bet on each side to make a profit.


You are wrong here. Stats work great when dealing with over and unders.

[Louisvillekid1]

Simulate the game in my head basically . .

Of course looks teams on paper as well as injuries, weather, etc.

Look for team motivations/Moral

Matchups

And more . . .

[Arnold]

Well stats are not going to make you win, most point spread winners are a flip of a coin regardless of what trends say.

The only math skills that work is when it comes to betting both sides to games and knowing how much to bet on each side to make a profit.

It's kind of hard to prove a negative, you know.

Evrybody has a system. I think hard work pays off. I put a lot of time on the game I bet and enjoy it. I learn something everytime I watch A game.

1.Watching a pitcher who has a slow move to 1st trying to pick a player off 1st.

2. A catcher who can't throw his mother out trying to steal

3. A team who can only win at home.

4. a team who can play better away

5. A hitters ball park compared to a pitchers ball park

6. A pitcher owns a team or a team owns a pitcher

You flip your coin and i will check my stats

And how do you make sense of all that? Yes, you have this and that information, but how useful it is to you if you don't know how to process it into a truly probable outcome of the game?