Kelly Criterion Calculation Question with a real example

Red_Sux · 03-24-08, 01:51 PM

Hey ganchrow, is this calculation correct?

part 1: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 17.5% of your capital, or $1,750.00

part 2: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 10.45% of your capital, or $1,044.00

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Red_Sux

i am using the pinnacle lines as an example for the first MLB game of the season: Dice-k vs Blanton
-152 Red Sox vs +144 Blanton

The question has two parts.

Imagine you have 10k bankroll and decide to bet this game using full kelly. How much are you going to risk based on these two hypothesis:

Part 1: You think red sox has 67% chance of winning, so you believe that the fair odds should be -200 for red sox. How much are you going to risk betting full kelly on the Red Sox?

Part 2: You think red sox only has 53% chance of winning, so the fair odds for red sox is only -113. How much are going to risk betting full kelly on the A's?

Using the Kelly Calculator:

1) Bankroll $10,000.00; US Odds: -152; Win Probability 66.6667%; click calculate and you find a bet size of $1,600.00.
2) Bankroll $10,000.00; US Odds: +144; Win Probability 47.0000%; click calculate and you find a bet size of $1,019.44.