Live Betting

[Hareeba!]

all exchanges failed in usa there is NO MARKET

spreading that nonsense again I see

you only have to read this and numerous other threads to see that there most certainly is a market

[tachi]

Is Live Betting a big trap for bettors

Yes,for those who bet on the outcome of the match-who will win,etc.

Those who say live betting is a gold,they make a lot of bets live and trade with odds.

[batigol]

What is the best strategy for livebetting ?

[Hareeba!]

What is the best strategy for livebetting ?

different things for different people but my favourite angle is to bet against the over-reaction to a goal, wicket, break of serve etc

[batigol]

Can you explain me little. Thanks

[Hareeba!]

Can you explain me little. Thanks

for me betting in the run is mostly about trading rather than trying to pick a winner
you need to find opportunities where there is an excellent chance of the odds moving in a particular direction

... an example ....

in tennis, a break of serve will see the odds move sharply
almost always that movement will be an exaggerated reaction by mug players
in womens tennis in particular a break of serve is frequently followed by a break back
so I tend to back the player who's just lost her serve, anticipating that she may well break straight back and I'll be in a position to trade out of that play at a profit
but even if there isn't an immediate break back the odds are still likely to move in my favour at some point thereafter

you can employ the same tactic in any sport as there's almost always an over-reaction to every goal, try, wicket etc .. the earlier in the game the better as there'll be plenty of opportunity to trade back later

[Thremp]

it beats me why there are any sports punters who can but don't use Betfair simply the most betting options and lowest juice on almost everything most of the time live betting is just another plus

Could you show the math for 100% market on Betfair v Pinnacle on soccer? We can do both noobs and people with max discount.

[Hareeba!]

Could you show the math for 100% market on Betfair v Pinnacle on soccer? We can do both noobs and people with max discount.

I'll look at some soccer later in the day but right now I'm working on tennis and looking at Petkovic @ 3.25 BF (even if paying full 5% comm that's 3.1375) but can get only 3.05 @ Pinnacle

don't get me wrong, Pinnacle is certainly a must but the point is that more often than not following an odds comparison my money goes on Betfair

[Thremp]

You avoid the question repeatedly. I'll stop being coy.

Betfair will never have the best price on both sides compared to Pinnacle for someone without discount, and have a higher overround in ~100.4%+ markets even with max discount. It will sometimes to rarely have a better price on one side, and almost never have a better price on one side due to being a higher overround book.

Please stop spewing outright fabrications.

There is a reason "pros" don't play a Betfair. Low limits, bad prices. Check the UEFA limits. 2k at Pinny, couple hundred at BF. Order of magnitude for a sharp.

[Hareeba!]

You avoid the question repeatedly. I'll stop being coy.

Betfair will never have the best price on both sides compared to Pinnacle for someone without discount, and have a higher overround in ~100.4%+ markets even with max discount. It will sometimes to rarely have a better price on one side, and almost never have a better price on one side due to being a higher overround book.

Please stop spewing outright fabrications.

There is a reason "pros" don't play a Betfair. Low limits, bad prices. Check the UEFA limits. 2k at Pinny, couple hundred at BF. Order of magnitude for a sharp.

Not avoiding the question
It's not necessary for BF to have the best price on both sides to be a must book for punters
Most who play at BF don't pay the top commission rate
What "fabrication" have I "spewed"?
Pros most certainly DO play at Betfair. I know heaps of others.
I've already demonstrated and proven that their prices are excellent. Limits can be an issue but that is also true of Pinnacle in some markets at times.
One thing you can't do at Pinnacle is post an offer for later acceptance. An invaluable plus for me.
You can't bet and lay horses in most races at Pinnacle.
Mostly there is no tennis set betting at Pinnacle.
And many more things too.

I repeat ... if you can and don't play at Betfair you simply aren't a serious sports punter.
(unless you 're only into US sports .. but even then there can be decent opportunities)

[Thremp]

I'm simply saying that I have compared one book to Betfair. It will have a superior price on 1 side 100% of the time for all bettors for all markets with >100.4% And could have the best price on every single bet due to a lower overround.

You provided a single bet that was better at Betfair with 10% limits of the one book I used to compare.

You said that Betfair (has): "lowest juice on almost everything most of the time" You are entitled to your opinion, but in reality it will have the best price on a given side far less often than Pinnacle (must less other traditional bookies). You are not entitled to fabricate facts.

Betfair is a higher juice bookie than Pinnacle in practice. It will have the best price, MUCH LESS OFTEN than Pinnacle. Much less other traditional bookies.

[FourLengthsClear]

You avoid the question repeatedly. I'll stop being coy.

Betfair will never have the best price on both sides compared to Pinnacle for someone without discount, and have a higher overround in ~100.4%+ markets even with max discount. It will sometimes to rarely have a better price on one side, and almost never have a better price on one side due to being a higher overround book.

Please stop spewing outright fabrications.

There is a reason "pros" don't play a Betfair. Low limits, bad prices. Check the UEFA limits. 2k at Pinny, couple hundred at BF. Order of magnitude for a sharp.

Pro's don't play at Betfair? What are you smoking?
Show me a Europa League match without at least USD 200k matched prior to kick-off.

Do Pinny offer -104 or -105 on all markets? If not your first assertion is patently false too.

[Hareeba!]

It will have the best price, MUCH LESS OFTEN than Pinnacle. Much less other traditional bookies.

then I must be an utter failure at basic maths and spreadsheets if I find more bets at Betfair than at Pinnacle after comparing odds?

[Thremp]

No one is interested in what you are betting, nor do they fukkin care.

You are entitled to the opinion "No serious punter is without BetFair". You, however, shouldn't spread basic lies about the vigorish at Betfair and its relative position to other books.

Why are you now trying to claim something about an esoteric subset (allegedly what you bet) of bets, rather than then inherent vigorish in the market?

I'm simply asking you to not fabricate facts. You can say "I find more bets at Betfair". You can, however, not say (well not without being a dishonest **** or an idiot): "lowest juice on almost everything most of the time" As this is an attempt to state a fact that has been proven incorrect.

[Hareeba!]

No one is interested in what you are betting, nor do they fukkin care.

You are entitled to the opinion "No serious punter is without BetFair". You, however, shouldn't spread basic lies about the vigorish at Betfair and its relative position to other books.

Why are you now trying to claim something about an esoteric subset (allegedly what you bet) of bets, rather than then inherent vigorish in the market?

I'm simply asking you to not fabricate facts. You can say "I find more bets at Betfair". You can, however, not say (well not without being a dishonest **** or an idiot): "lowest juice on almost everything most of the time" As this is an attempt to state a fact that has been proven incorrect.

I don't believe it has been proven incorrect. Where is the "proof"?

Over the course of a year I place enough bets (at least in the sports I play there) to be as sure as I believe anyone can be that my experience is sufficient to truthfully claim that Betfair does indeed offer better odds (after commission for at least most players) than does Pinnacle.

[Thremp]

Are you capable of doing basic math?

Do you understand what an overround is?

Do you disagree with my two conclusions regarding the vigorish of markets for new players at BF and people with max discount?

You can keep arguing anecdotal evidence and incorrect opinion in place of fact. But it remains that you are wrong and are spreading lies about BF. I find it stunning that you wouldn't be aware of such a trivially obvious fact.

[Hareeba!]

Are you capable of doing basic math?

Do you understand what an overround is?

Do you disagree with my two conclusions regarding the vigorish of markets for new players at BF and people with max discount?

You can keep arguing anecdotal evidence and incorrect opinion in place of fact. But it remains that you are wrong and are spreading lies about BF. I find it stunning that you wouldn't be aware of such a trivially obvious fact.

the only thing which matters is where I can get the best odds for the amount I wish to stake

and my experience tells me that Betfair is the answer more frequently than Pinnacle is

admittedly I don't pay the top (5%) commission rate but the difference between what I pay and that wouldn't shift the balance all that much in Pinnacle's favour

bottom line remains: if you CAN play at Betfair you would have to be a dill if you didn't have an account with them

[Thremp]

That is an opinion which I disagree with.

It is, however, avoiding my original comments and questions. And does not support your earlier statement in any way. Regardless, your repeated goal post shifting seems to indicate that you implicitly agree with my factually correct stance and are simply too arrogant to admit your elementary error and oversight. I hope this was a learning experience for all into the perils of an inability to do remedial mathematics.

Your experience is utterly useless BTW as it has you repeatedly touting completely erroneous "facts". Experience is not a substitute for truth.

[durito]

i suppose i am a dill

[Hareeba!]

That is an opinion which I disagree with.

It is, however, avoiding my original comments and questions. And does not support your earlier statement in any way. Regardless, your repeated goal post shifting seems to indicate that you implicitly agree with my factually correct stance and are simply too arrogant to admit your elementary error and oversight. I hope this was a learning experience for all into the perils of an inability to do remedial mathematics.

Your experience is utterly useless BTW as it has you repeatedly touting completely erroneous "facts". Experience is not a substitute for truth.

No error or oversight requiring admission at all
I make no attempt to argue with basic maths but experience is "real world" stuff .. genuine facts and not erroneous
Perhaps you are unaware that on an exchange you don't have to accept the best current offer but can ask for better? Try doing that at Pinnacle.

[lacoste]

i suppose i am a dill

me too...

[Thremp]

No error or oversight requiring admission at all I make no attempt to argue with basic maths but experience is "real world" stuff .. genuine facts and not erroneous Perhaps you are unaware that on an exchange you don't have to accept the best current offer but can ask for better? Try doing that at Pinnacle.

Then you stand by your comment? You seem to implicitly disagree with my math, but have offered none of your own. Its self-evident why BetFair is a higher vigorish option and would have the best price SIGNIFICANTLY LESS OFTEN for all bettors than just Pinnacle.

You repeatedly cite the benefits of exchanges without simply acknowledging the fact that you continually speak lies during your shill attempts.

[venice2222]

i have done live betting on matchbook for college football, and the liquidity sucked.

[FourLengthsClear]

I'm simply saying that I have compared one book to Betfair. It will have a superior price on 1 side 100% of the time for all bettors for all markets with >100.4% And could have the best price on every single bet due to a lower overround.

You provided a single bet that was better at Betfair with 10% limits of the one book I used to compare.

You said that Betfair (has): "lowest juice on almost everything most of the time" You are entitled to your opinion, but in reality it will have the best price on a given side far less often than Pinnacle (must less other traditional bookies). You are not entitled to fabricate facts.

Betfair is a higher juice bookie than Pinnacle in practice. It will have the best price, MUCH LESS OFTEN than Pinnacle. Much less other traditional bookies.

It takes a commission rate of 3.8% to match -105 pricing if you assume:

a) a 50% win rate.
b) a 0.5% overround (essentially -101 pricing).

Once you get down into the area of 3 percent commission, the reverse of your argument is true.

[Hareeba!]

i have done live betting on matchbook for college football, and the liquidity sucked.

no idea what it would be like for college football at Betfair (or if they even do it) but generally there is simply no comparison between liquidity at Betfair and Matchbook.

[Hareeba!]

Then you stand by your comment? You seem to implicitly disagree with my math, but have offered none of your own. Its self-evident why BetFair is a higher vigorish option and would have the best price SIGNIFICANTLY LESS OFTEN for all bettors than just Pinnacle.

You repeatedly cite the benefits of exchanges without simply acknowledging the fact that you continually speak lies during your shill attempts.

you many not agree with all my comments but none of them is a lie

I can only pass on the benefit of my own experience - take it or leave it

[Thremp]

The comment about how often they would have the lowest vig option?!?

How is that true even in the most absurd universe?

Are you claiming that BetFair is dealing routine 99% markets?

[Hareeba!]

The comment about how often they would have the lowest vig option?!?

How is that true even in the most absurd universe?

Are you claiming that BetFair is dealing routine 99% markets?

At the risk of repeating myself all I've claimed is that Betfair beats Pinnacle more often than not in my experience so therefore they effectively must be offering the lower vig.
I know you have no regard for my math ability but I do have complete confidence in my spreadsheets' ability to get that right.

Obviously I don't have experience betting all sports and types of bets and it is quite probably true that there would be too little liquidity on many lesser markets which (if they offer them) Pinnacle may be the better option.

Bottom line remains that if you can and don't use them you are a dill.

And as for "lies" how about "Pros don't play at Betfair" ?

[Hareeba!]

i suppose i am a dill

why's that Durito?

[Thremp]

But you're completely wrong and so is your spreadsheet. We've been over this repeatedly. You are either 1) dishonest 2) incompetent. Coupled with your arrogance, this is dangerous. Someone may actually listen to your errant facts and lose money trusting your "experience" which is vastly inferior to 4th grade math skill.

I pointed out how Pinnacle has markets 10x the size of Betfair. The tennis line your cited has limits a tenth of Pinnacle. UEFA is similar.

Where did I say every pro didn't play at Betfair?

[FourLengthsClear]

But you're completely wrong and so is your spreadsheet. We've been over this repeatedly. You are either 1) dishonest 2) incompetent. Coupled with your arrogance, this is dangerous. Someone may actually listen to your errant facts and lose money trusting your "experience" which is vastly inferior to 4th grade math skill.

I pointed out how Pinnacle has markets 10x the size of Betfair. The tennis line your cited has limits a tenth of Pinnacle. UEFA is similar.

Where did I say every pro didn't play at Betfair?

Limits?
By limit do you mean the maximum you are able to get on in any given minute, hour or what.
On any Grand Slam singles match you could EASILY get 50k down on Betfair. In-play liquidity in these matches is amazing.

It is you who is both arrogant and frequently wrong.

[Hareeba!]

But you're completely wrong and so is your spreadsheet. We've been over this repeatedly. You are either 1) dishonest 2) incompetent. Coupled with your arrogance, this is dangerous. Someone may actually listen to your errant facts and lose money trusting your "experience" which is vastly inferior to 4th grade math skill.

I pointed out how Pinnacle has markets 10x the size of Betfair. The tennis line your cited has limits a tenth of Pinnacle. UEFA is similar.

Where did I say every pro didn't play at Betfair?

LOL, look who's talking about arrogance!

Anyone who simply puts his bet on at Betfair without without checking to see that it is the best he can do is a danger to himself.

I can assure you my spreadsheet can correctly determine the effective odds for comparison purposes. Would you care to provide a test for it?

I have no idea what you mean by referring to my betting experience as being "inferior to 4th grade math skill". Perhaps your expression skills don't match your obvious math skills?

In post #44 you made an unqualified statement regarding pros not playing at Betfair.

[Thremp]

Limits? By limit do you mean the maximum you are able to get on in any given minute, hour or what. On any Grand Slam singles match you could EASILY get 50k down on Betfair. In-play liquidity in these matches is amazing. It is you who is both arrogant and frequently wrong.

I mean the amount of money that was available on the bet he cited. It actually moved significantly lower during the time it took me to make my post. I'm not interested in live betting. I'm commenting on their model.

Here are the offers/overrounds for the tennis matches (Aussie Quarter Finals) currently:
2196/9604/100.7%
5009/15040/100.9%
34648/452/100.7%

The in running Federer match has around a dime to win on him (Whoops, steamed up huge! Upto 3 dimes.) The limits/overround for games that have not begun are vastly inferior to Pinnacle. That is not up for debate. There are significantly lower amounts to bet and higher vigorish. These are both factual. Whether you can get a taste at a slightly better price (as was pointed out earlier with petkovic), that is not up for debate either. BetFair may have the best price on some markets at some times. Though Pinnacle will have the better price >50% always for a noob and when the overround is >100.4% for someone with max discount. I have not seen any markets with lower overround.

Hareeba,

I do not know a single professional who plays at Betfair for meaningful sums. That is factual. Whether these people (who aren't traders) actually exist isn't in dispute. Its an opinion. Much like how you think no professional should be without it.

Your experience saying that Betfair will have a better price is completely incorrect. You're now defending your outright lies. People like you trying to intentionally mislead people help to ruin this forum. Please learn some basic math. Then come back and post. Or better yet don't. Money in the system = money in my pocket.

[FourLengthsClear]

I mean the amount of money that was available on the bet he cited. It actually moved significantly lower during the time it took me to make my post. I'm not interested in live betting. I'm commenting on their model.

Here are the offers/overrounds for the tennis matches (Aussie Quarter Finals) currently:
2196/9604/100.7%
5009/15040/100.9%
34648/452/100.7%

The in running Federer match has around a dime to win on him (Whoops, steamed up huge! Upto 3 dimes.) The limits/overround for games that have not begun are vastly inferior to Pinnacle. That is not up for debate. There are significantly lower amounts to bet and higher vigorish. These are both factual. Whether you can get a taste at a slightly better price (as was pointed out earlier with petkovic), that is not up for debate either. BetFair may have the best price on some markets at some times. Though Pinnacle will have the better price >50% always for a noob and when the overround is >100.4% for someone with max discount. I have not seen any markets with lower overround.

Hareeba,

I do not know a single professional who plays at Betfair for meaningful sums. That is factual. Whether these people (who aren't traders) actually exist isn't in dispute. Its an opinion. Much like how you think no professional should be without it.

Your experience saying that Betfair will have a better price is completely incorrect. You're now defending your outright lies. People like you trying to intentionally mislead people help to ruin this forum. Please learn some basic math. Then come back and post. Or better yet don't. Money in the system = money in my pocket.

You are not only arrogant, you are proving yourself to be clueless (or perhaps just dishonest).
The attached was taken just before the match you cited started, note the amount matached. The amount available at that moment is in no way a LIMIT, it is just the amount available there and then at that price,

As I also explained in an earlier post, and you have not disputed a commission rate of 3.8% equates to -105 lines (based 0.5% overround and 50% win rate).

[Thremp]

To win 12k USD. Congrats. How long did it take you to find that?

Since when did Pinnacle deal -105/-105? Why wouldn't you compare -104/-104 like they use on soccer? Or is intellectual dishonesty your specialty?


NB: The entire market on Fed is barely over 50k to win. How exactly is that "easily" when odds are significantly different?

Then again you are apparently illiterate (unable to read Pinnacle). Needless to say loltacular.