Caracalla's Quattro Gatti Chat Thread

[caracalla]

No problem, the most important things are
1) result (final and 1st 5 innings)
2) W/L
3) odds (american and european)

To have totals I use Pivot table
Anyway I don't accept disclaimer

[caracalla]

I never noticed that column
23 GL: 14W/9L
not so bad!!

[smoth]

Very good job: picks and Excel

[elgreco]

No problem, the most important things are
1) result (final and 1st 5 innings)
2) W/L
3) odds (american and european)

Columns A-N are Elgreco certified correct.

Anyway I don't accept disclaimer

I live in America... the land of lawyers and disclaimers.

[elgreco]

Very good job: picks and Excel

Thanks smoth.

He really killed it last year on the picks eh? I was planning vacations around the extra income . Now I'm struggling to find a matchbook replacement so we can do it all over again this year.

[Tommy_de1st]

Thanks smoth. He really killed it last year on the picks eh? I was planning vacations around the extra income . Now I'm struggling to find a matchbook replacement so we can do it all over again this year.

What a shame that most european books don't accept american residents

[elgreco]

I don't blame them though. Too much trouble. America needs to wake up.

[elgreco]

How is the system looking, amico? Are we close to crawling into the ass of the whale?

[caracalla]

Good enough, converging. Unofficial +3units. But I'm not in an hurry. Past year we started cash $$ after April 30.
Be carefull: I'll post my picks (completed games), but 98% I'll bet 1st 5 innings

[caracalla]

But I don't understand some odds! Example

ML, yesterday
CWS -149 5Inn -110: so different

RL today
Cubs(Aw) -1.5 -128, same for -0.5 5Inn
Thursday 7
Flo (H) -1.5 +115, -0.5 5Inn -130
SL (H) -1.5 +110, -0.5 5Inn -130

WHY?

[elgreco]

I am going to have to think about that, but these are my first ideas:

1.) It could be that since 5 innings is not as popular as the entire game, the price may not be as efficient as it would be in a larger market. I think 5 innings is a "prop" bet with much less volume as the final score bet.

2.) If the price is efficient and accurate, then maybe there really is that big of a difference between the team's starting pitcher and the relief pitchers. It could be a situation that, if a team can make it through pitcher #1 without being far behind, then they have a good change of making up the difference and winning because the relief pitchers are garbage.

Anyway, just first ideas. Hopefully someone who really follows baseball can enlighten us with their educated opinion.

[caracalla]

Sorry for my huge ignorance, but are teams forced to change pitcher during the game? I thik not.
If noy, anyone know percentage of changing (50%, 90%)?
Bullpens are so different from team to team?

[staf]

Teams usually change pitchers after about 100 pitches, as this is when their arms get tired and they start giving up hits and runs.
Pitching changes happen probably more than 95% of the time.

[elgreco]

, welcome back staf

Staf is right, it's part of the strategy. The starting pitcher gets replaced almost 100% of the time. It is very rare that a starting pitcher goes to the end, when they get tired, a fresh "relief" pitcher comes in to finish the job. You don't want the starting pitcher getting tired, and if you ever-stress him, he may not even be ready for his next scheduled pitching game (3-5 days away). The only time you see a starter go until the end is when he is pitching a very rare "perfect" or "no-hitter" game.

On a side-note. Starting pitchers and Bullpen "relief" pitchers are two totally different positions. You cannot use a starting pitcher as a relief pitcher, and a relief pitcher can not be used as a starter. It is not because of the rules. It's because of the training and skill of the person. Starters have to be consistent, and be able to perform smooth and steady for a long time. Once you get to the bullpen, there are guys in there that are freaks of nature, pure animals, but only for a few pitches... then they start getting crazy. It's almost like a game of chess after the starting pitcher leaves, they put in a relief pitcher specifically for certain hitters and situations.

[elgreco]

More information that you probably don't care about:

There are even hitters (batters) who's specialty is getting starting pitchers tired. If you can make contact with the ball and it goes foul, then the pitcher has to pitch to you again. If one batter can make a pitcher waste 12 pitches on just him, then he just used up 15% of that pitchers life for that game, and that means the pitching team will have to go to a replacement earlier.

[caracalla]

OK. Stupid baseball, but profitable.
Better for me stay stupid on rules, strategy and so on: only stats.
But why so different odds?

[elgreco]

I'll do some thinking after I get out of work. But for now, I'm sticking with my first two ideas. But if idea #2 is correct, then you and your stats are going to give us the answer.

I'll see if I can find a some stats for you to tell when the starting pitcher was taken out of the game.

[caracalla]

Better for you, out of work, taking care of your wonderful girl!!

[elgreco]

[caracalla]

I'm Italian, so I know ....

[BetterBizness]

I think it would be "molto importante" to figure out the average length of the starters each game.

As has been mentioned, the relief pitchers play a huge role, but in particular the middle relief pitchers who come in either a) If the starter has pitched poorly early on (in that case first 5 will likely lose anyhow) or b) will come in for a very specific role or length of time...

To elaborate on B) - In an ideal scenario, the starter pitches 6 Innings (And wins if Caracalla bets on them), then the "setup" man comes in in the 7th Inning, and pitches for 2 innings, until the "closer" comes in to pitch the last inning.

In optimal theory, the setup man, and the closer pitch no more then 2 innings (Closer no more than 1), and have only entered the game typically ahead to "close" the game out and ensure a victory. In a season, that final pitcher (Closer) may "Save" up to 60 games (typically 40ish)... Obviously BS (Blown saves, or Bullsheit depending on which team you were on) are a key factor as well, but not really within the key stats...

[caracalla]

Thank you, BetterBizness, but too "strange" for European people: I don't pretend to understand baseball strategy but very usefull to understand why my 1st 5Innigs results are better: and this is the most important thing.
But why so huge different odds from whole game and 5Inngs, sometimes? It would be MOLTO IMPORTANTE ( you are great, are you italian?) to have a more profitable results?
Why today, now, at 2betdsi
Seattle -1.5 +130 and
Sea -0.5 1H -125

It is too strange, why?

[caracalla]

time to go to sleep for me, but these discrepancies can be very interesting and significant

[caracalla]

Last data
2H odd Sea -120 ML

[BetterBizness]

Thank you, BetterBizness, but too "strange" for European people: I don't pretend to understand baseball strategy but very usefull to understand why my 1st 5Innigs results are better: and this is the most important thing.
But why so huge different odds from whole game and 5Inngs, sometimes? It would be MOLTO IMPORTANTE ( you are great, are you italian?) to have a more profitable results?
Why today, now, at 2betdsi
Seattle -1.5 +130 and
Sea -0.5 1H -125

It is too strange, why?

I would say that because the idea of the "forced" run plays into the end game.. that because the home team (Sea) can not officially win by 2 runs in their last at bat (Except for rare Homerun with man on base), combined with the idea that managers (they call them that in baseball as well as your game of football), will typically play a very conservative strategy if the game is close, particularly tied...

Remember my previous post that talked about closers and setup men? The reason I believe for the big "+" money would be for the fact that if runs will be scored, they will typically be "against the norm", as those late inning pitchers are specialists to maintain whatever lead is given...

If I may speak to something you know quite well... I would say that if Italy is playing, particularly a weaker but competent team... Say, France (Ha!)... that Italy 1H .5 (+140) wouldn't be out of the ordinary... but then say you say a line of -1.5 (+300) for Full game wouldn't be unheard of because If in theory, Italy is to win the game, the likelyhood that if they were up 1-0 the Midfielders would all drop back, and they would probably just leave one striker on top for counters...

So to relate back to baseball, one starting pitcher is clearly better then the other, and will likely go to the 6th inning ahead by a run... After that, if they are ahead by say, even 2 runs, and the other team mounts a comeback in say the 8th inning, now, like in Football, they are typically playing to win the game by just 1 run. And say they get the 1 run in the 7th inning, now they don't even get the benefit of the final 3 outs at home to add "extra" runs ...

There is alot there to absorb, and I had to think about it myself, but tell me if this makes any sense...

[elgreco]

That sounds like a valid logical assessment. But while it makes sense as far as RL is concerned, I can't make the connection between that and the ML odds. Cara cited an example above "CWS -149 5Inn -110: so different". What do you think the explanation is for that? Using your logic of "scoring" innings and "maintaining" innings, does that mean the oddsmakers expect the opponents bullpen to give up some runs after the starter is retired?

[caracalla]

Tx, betterBizness, but I'm not so sure!! And France and Italy soccer teams are either stupid!

[caracalla]

2 weeks gone, and some interesting data. So far
UNOFFICIAL 19/20 -187
FIRST 5 INNINGS 20/14/5 +324

[Tommy_de1st]

Are you posting those plays or you just do it on the paper?

[caracalla]

All picks posted are picks wagered

[caracalla]

Ticket #AcceptedTypeRiskTo Win Short Description 4/15/2011 12:01 PM Money Line $xx $xx Baseball - 1963 San Francisco Giants -107 for Game 4/15/2011 12:01 PM Money Line $xx $xx Baseball - 1976 Kansas City Royals -124 for Game 4/15/2011 11:59 AM Money Line $xx $xx Baseball - 1953 Milwaukee Brewers -125 for Game 4/15/2011 11:59 AM Money Line $xx $xx Baseball - 1960 Houston Astros -108 for Game 4/15/2011 11:59 AM Money Line $xx $xx Baseball - 1962 Colorado Rockies -153 for Game

These from BJ 5Innings

[caracalla]

I'm not joking

[caracalla]

again
whole game 3-3 -029
5 inn 4-2 +167

[elgreco]

I never took you as a joker

[caracalla]

I know, even if I'm little drunk (little??????)