Laying horses in US Horse Racing -> Can you make living out of it?

[davidchong]

betfair the best place to bet on usa horses!.

[sq764]

The problem with this system is that there are not enough horses in the U.S. right now so your 70-1 shots will be limited. You might find 1 per day at the California tracks and maybe 3-4 at NY tracks on a weekend. I see 60-1, 70-1, 80-1 win all the time at Mountaineer but most tracks will not have enough horses to find these huge longshots.

"All the time"?? I think this is a massive generalization.. You MAY see ONE $100+ horse a week.. MAYBE

[sq764]

betfair the best place to bet on usa horses!.

DOes Betfair offer 10-14% rebates?

[jjgold]

betfair the best place to bet on usa horses!.

YES by far

[wtf]

DOes Betfair offer 10-14% rebates?

no

but when you compare the LAUGHABLE odds you get from those books or pari-mutual pools who cares about 10%

[xkgb]

im still waiting on secretariat to make his comeback, then ill bet it all..haha

[jw]

DOes Betfair offer 10-14% rebates?

No - but they regularly beat track odds by upwards of 30%
.. and if you bet win singles or place only (1st three in most races) you would not be able to get anywhere near 10-14% rebates anyway.

[Pharieswheel]

The greatest bet for the lower player is the $10.cent superfecta, it allows the poor player to play $4.00 in any given race and get a great payofff in the end. For example let's say you love a horse that's 6-1 nearing post, if you play a $10cent super no matter what you're guranteed a $40.00 return on your investment, so now you love the horse you bet a combination ticket for $16 which almost gurantees you a big shot. You already know your a $40.00 winner, but the right combination could bring you back hundreds here's an example on how I'd play that race. 6/12345/1234567/all. That is the best way to bet your super. (remember always go all in any race of superfecta or trifecta, no matter what you do above the last hole, too many times i've been cute and lost it in the last hole by not going all.

[sq764]

no

but when you compare the LAUGHABLE odds you get from those books or pari-mutual pools who cares about 10%

'laughable odds' is quite a general comment.. for instance, if I like the favorite at 8/5 and he's 4/5 at betfair is that good for me?

What if I hate the 4/5 favorite and my 10/1 oddsline horse is sitting at 25/1 at the track, is that laughable?

[sq764]

No - but they regularly beat track odds by upwards of 30% .. and if you bet win singles or place only (1st three in most races) you would not be able to get anywhere near 10-14% rebates anyway.

you're not playing at the right places... the rebates are there.

[jjgold]

If you blindly lay horses to loser at betfair you will get buried

It never fails that having 9 horses to win vs 1 to lose ..well you know what happens and you get smashed like laying 8 or so to win 1

[sq764]

my point is that there are ways to get value, get a rebate AND keep money going into the pari-mutuel pools, not to offshore books

[madmaxx]

"All the time"?? I think this is a massive generalization.. You MAY see ONE $100+ horse a week.. MAYBE

I dont follow tracks like Mountaineer, Zia, Hawthorne, etc very closely but I see $100+ winners sometimes...so who knows

[wtf]

'laughable odds' is quite a general comment.. for instance, if I like the favorite at 8/5 and he's 4/5 at betfair is that good for me?

What if I hate the 4/5 favorite and my 10/1 oddsline horse is sitting at 25/1 at the track, is that laughable?

cause your 25-1 at the track will probably be 50-1 on betfair, that is why it is laughable

[jw]

you're not playing at the right places... the rebates are there.

Can you show me one place that I can get a 14% rebate on all win bets ... or is it a secret .... even so - I make 30% better odds more attractive than a 14% rebate ....

[jw]

'laughable odds' is quite a general comment.. for instance, if I like the favorite at 8/5 and he's 4/5 at betfair is that good for me?

What if I hate the 4/5 favorite and my 10/1 oddsline horse is sitting at 25/1 at the track, is that laughable?

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/291210

go through a few weeks of results ... compare track odds to betfair SP odds ... then tell me that you are still better off betting on track - even with your 14% bonus ...

[Kindred]

The horse still has a chance, if the odds are correct he has one chance in seventy and long term you can expect the horse to win one race out of seventy. Laying 1K to win 5 or whatever is a -EV bet. Unless you find out that 70-1 long shots have true odds of 200-1 or something crazy it's a losing bet long term.

Just find the horse with better odds to win than you are betting into, or an overpriced horse to bet against. If it's +EV you'll make money. Only way to make money long term in any form of gambling is to make +EV wagers.

[sq764]

Can you show me one place that I can get a 14% rebate on all win bets ... or is it a secret .... even so - I make 30% better odds more attractive than a 14% rebate ....

where do you get 30% from?

[sq764]

cause your 25-1 at the track will probably be 50-1 on betfair, that is why it is laughable

and what if your 8/1 is 5/1 on betfair and 8/1 on track? or you're trying to say this doesnt happen

[sq764]

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/291210 go through a few weeks of results ... compare track odds to betfair SP odds ... then tell me that you are still better off betting on track - even with your 14% bonus ...

we'll have to agree to disagree... thats why its nice to have choices

[davidchong]

where is the 10-14% rebate? what site?

[jw]

and what if your 8/1 is 5/1 on betfair and 8/1 on track? or you're trying to say this doesnt happen

VERY rarely.

we'll have to agree to disagree... thats why its nice to have choices

Did you do the math on the horses you have bet on over the past few weeks .. ?
How did the numbers look ?
For me - on average - i'm +30% over track odds.... the numbers are there in black and white.
Are you telling me that even with a 14% rebate - you would have been better off with track odds ?


Care to share where you are getting the 14% rebate ?
After all - surely its best if we keep the money going into the pari-mutuel pools isn't it ?

[sq764]

the math isnt adding up.. lets say you eliminate the takeout entirely at, say, santa anita.. so you have 17% higher on the entire pool, and thats assuming all wagers at BF are exactly the same % wise as at the track.. wheres the other 13%?

[stefan084]

i don't think there are any sites to lay bet in the US are there? I wanted to try this also

[ok now what]

"All the time"?? I think this is a massive generalization.. You MAY see ONE $100+ horse a week.. MAYBE

Amongst the tracks you can depend on to be carried by many books, I'd say it's 2 to 5 a week. You can generally find one big price someplace large a day - Big for me being 35/1 and up. . . That's assuming a field of 20+ north american racetracks. I think the mountaineer longshot thing that I see so many people talk about has actually fallen off/relates to memories people have from 2000-2004, when it was bombs away many times a week. Turfway and Evangeline (the T-bred meet) have had their stretches where the average $2 win mutuel was way high past the norm in more recent years.

I read about something like this in an old blackjack guide. . . the kinds they would sell in an airport gift shop. It's like when a guy says "I didn't hit a stiff (2 cards @ 12+) all night and I won". . . . "all night" could well have been a 40 minute session. . .

I seldom see comprehensive studies of the $2 win average over time at a track. Sure, you get the occaisional track boasting of it's percentage rate of "favorites", but that stat doesn't really help anyone and actually tracks should realize boasting a high favorites rate is one hell of a turn-off.

[ACoochy]

Middling before the race starts is where its at (well at least 4 this punter anyway)....Would never bet a horse race outright as too many middling opportunities to be had on US and UK horses at betfair....GL

[jw]

the math isnt adding up.. lets say you eliminate the takeout entirely at, say, santa anita.. so you have 17% higher on the entire pool, and thats assuming all wagers at BF are exactly the same % wise as at the track.. wheres the other 13%?

not all races go off with a 100% over-round .. i've seen some with an over-round as low as 85% on betfair in the recent weeks - and in that 100% .. some will be below market price and others will be well above it.

example ..



I was on the winner in this race .. +36% ... some of the others are MUCH better than track odds .. one or two are below ... on average though - the majority of the horses you will be on will beat track odds by quite some way .. in the above example - the over-round was less than 100% ...

If you are taking out the favorite and targeting horses at odds over 8-1 on the tote .. doing better than 30% is quite easy.



As I said - take the last 4 weeks of horses that you have personally played .. and figure out your own advantage over "track odds" ... you might be surprised ...

Have you posted where we can get the 14% rebates yet .. have I missed it ? 'cos there are indeed times when I do play on the tote .. so would appreciate the extra help .. i'm not going to say no to an extra 14% of free money.

[davidchong]

the way to analize both scenarios is doing the following math....

a. with rebates, (14%), the real cost of the bet is 0.86
b. with 30% higher than track odds.

Payoff: 15.60 - 5% = 14.82 BF ........ 5-1 (12.00) Track.
a. Track = bet 0.86 for 6.00 = 1.00 for 6.97
b. Bfair = bet 1.00 for 7.41

With this scenario, BF pays 6.31% more than track. (If your selection wins).

Now, if your bet lose, you get nothing at BF but get back 0.14 for each dollar at the rebate system.

The big question, what betting site offer a 14% rebate.... ?

[spot picker]

kentucky derby mine that bird 99 to 1

[sq764]

not all races go off with a 100% over-round .. i've seen some with an over-round as low as 85% on betfair in the recent weeks - and in that 100% .. some will be below market price and others will be well above it. example .. I was on the winner in this race .. +36% ... some of the others are MUCH better than track odds .. one or two are below ... on average though - the majority of the horses you will be on will beat track odds by quite some way .. in the above example - the over-round was less than 100% ... If you are taking out the favorite and targeting horses at odds over 8-1 on the tote .. doing better than 30% is quite easy. As I said - take the last 4 weeks of horses that you have personally played .. and figure out your own advantage over "track odds" ... you might be surprised ... Have you posted where we can get the 14% rebates yet .. have I missed it ? 'cos there are indeed times when I do play on the tote .. so would appreciate the extra help .. i'm not going to say no to an extra 14% of free money.

again, this is assuming you're a winning player.. If you're ROI with even an 8% rebate is .95, you profit. If your ROI is .95 using betfair, you're losing 5%..

[sq764]

And there's plenty of sites where, if you hit the right level of play, you can get your 10%+ - Mutuelsonline, PTC, NHPlay, etc..

[jw]

again, this is assuming you're a winning player.. If you're ROI with even an 8% rebate is .95, you profit. If your ROI is .95 using betfair, you're losing 5%..

Lets assume we are winning players, else there is not much point playing ...

so - once again - care to share where the rebates are .... ?


.... combined results from the two "systems" I'm currently playing ...

170 Bets - 37 Won
Profit to Track Price = +41.00
Profit to BFSP = +123 (after commission)

even adding an extra 24 points to account for a 14% rebate ... I'm almost 100% better off with betfair SP ... long term of course this is not sustainable .. +30% has been the average since Betfair SP became available ... note: some of these races did not have betfair SP available - so track odds have been used .. which skews the results further into the BFSP column.


Heck - if you are better off with your rebates - good luck to ya ... personally I've never seen much more than 4-6% rebates on straight win bets .. was just asking people to run the numbers and figure out where they would be better off playing ... might even turn a few people from negative numbers into positive numbers... at the end of the day - its all about staying in the game for as long as possible.

[Aussiecapper101]

Theres a software programme thats being sold here in Australia that they use on worldwide racing not just Aus and basically it does exactly what your saying but the only difference is that it has a hedge button, so basically you lay a bet on the horse least getting money put on it (this way it should get money put on it at some stage even if only little) then it automatically updates live until you can back the horse at a bigger price being about a $20-30 profit or usually at least $16, if you fail to be able to "hedge" the bet then you can ride it and hope it loses (most likely will but we all know "what can happen") or buy out of it for about $20-30 loss and then the other option is backing it in play if your crapping your pants and its running decent - this would incur a good $100-200 loss but betting than the horse coming first and blowing your bankroll! there is also strict rules to follow with this but people I have spoke to are easily making money out of it and using it as their own business.. Me, I've been twiddling my thumbs for 3 months thinking about doing it but I'm not sold just yet the software program is linked up with betfair so thats where the bets are laid and oh the software costs a shitload of money!

[ACoochy]

Theres a software programme thats being sold here in Australia that they use on worldwide racing not just Aus and basically it does exactly what your saying but the only difference is that it has a hedge button, so basically you lay a bet on the horse least getting money put on it (this way it should get money put on it at some stage even if only little) then it automatically updates live until you can back the horse at a bigger price being about a $20-30 profit or usually at least $16, if you fail to be able to "hedge" the bet then you can ride it and hope it loses (most likely will but we all know "what can happen") or buy out of it for about $20-30 loss and then the other option is backing it in play if your crapping your pants and its running decent - this would incur a good $100-200 loss but betting than the horse coming first and blowing your bankroll! there is also strict rules to follow with this but people I have spoke to are easily making money out of it and using it as their own business.. Me, I've been twiddling my thumbs for 3 months thinking about doing it but I'm not sold just yet the software program is linked up with betfair so thats where the bets are laid and oh the software costs a shitload of money!

Aussie are you talking about the Universal Betting Bot for Betfair Games?? If not then care to drop a name for those here that want to know more? Cheers and GL....

[Iwinwithsports]

is there any place i can lay horses If i live in the USA?

I dont think so just wondering

thanks