The Half-Point Calculator and the value of the 1

[raiders72002]

I'm probably wrong about 7. Like I said I don't crunch the numbers in hoops so Ganch's calculator is a much better gage.

There are some guys that you follow blindly and listen to what they say. I'm not sure the actual criteria that he uses but it's good enough for me.

If BW says take Duke, I'm on Duke if I can get it before the move. I don't need to ask why he likes Duke.

Take my post for what it's worth. You can ask why but don't give me the, "they aren't smart" or mocking crap. All I'm saying, and of course myself included, is that we shouldn't post like this in future threads.

[HedgeHog]

No, I don't bet. Gambling ruins your life and is very bad. Now get back to telling me how the 2 is a key number in the NCAA Tournament despite having zero evidence to back it up. I'd also love to hear again how the 7 is key in the NBA despite it pushing less than any number from 6 to 10.

BS We're being scammed here. Anyone who knows +Ev bets big time. If Donjuan doesn't bet, then I'm a flaming fag.

[donjuan]

There are some guys that you follow blindly and listen to what they say. I'm not sure the actual criteria that he uses but it's good enough for me.

If it's good enough for you, fine. I like to make sure my bets are +EV, though, and I see no evidence to indicate that buying onto the 2 in basketball at common industry rates is.

[donjuan]

BS We're being scammed here. Anyone who knows +Ev bets big time. If Donjuan doesn't bet, then I'm a flaming fag.

I chuckled.

[raiders72002]

I like to make sure my bets are +EV,

you like to make sure that your opinion says it's +EV which is no different than most on the board.

[raiders72002]

then I'm a flaming fag.

To each his own. I won't hold it against you.

[HedgeHog]

To each his own. I won't hold it against you.

I always knew you checking out my ass!

[donjuan]

you like to make sure that your opinion says it's +EV which is no different than most on the board.

I'm not sure exactly what my opinion has to do with anything.

[raiders72002]

How do you know a bet is +EV unless you are a pure scalper?

[donjuan]

How do you know a bet is +EV unless you are a pure scalper?

If by pure scalper do you mean an arbitrageur or someone who finds off market/stale lines and bets them?

Other than that, the answer is models.

[durito]

I don't see any evidence in my data of any difference in push probability around -2 for the tourney vs the regular season. Not that there's enough data available to much such a distinction anyway.

[raiders72002]

I always knew you checking out my ass!

it is nice.

[raiders72002]

I don't see any evidence in my data of any difference in push probability around -2 for the tourney vs the regular season. Not that there's enough data available to much such a distinction anyway.

whatcha got?

[Ganchrow]

If a higher percentage of post-season games are expected to be "close" than regular season games, we'd naturally expect more of the former sort to end with a MOV of 2. This does not imply, however, that from the perspective of buying or selling additional points when betting, the 2 suddenly becomes more valuable in the post-season.

[raiders72002]

Damn- I was hoping Ganch missed this thread. I didn't want to be shot down.

FWIW I'll still do it.

[raiders72002]

If a higher percentage of post-season games are expected to be "close" than regular season games, we'd naturally expect more of the former sort to end with a MOV of 2. This does not imply, however, that from the perspective of buying or selling additional points when betting, the 2 suddenly becomes more valuable in the post-season.
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agree- It doesn't imply more nor does it imply less valuable.

[BuddyBear]

Off subject (somewhat), there was a pretty nice article on statfox about the value of buying points as a whole. Keep in mind this article only focuses on NBA, so you can't really generalize onto other sports even NCAAB it would be difficult to make such inferneces.

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~3595~h~Buying-Points-in-the-NBA.htm

[raiders72002]

Durito- Same as Don's reply above. You're only as good as the data you use and backfitting is easy to do.

Are you using closing lines or opening lines? What book? Who steamed the line, square money or sharp? What are the totals? Are you taking home/away into consideration. Are conference games different from non-conference. Are tourney games different? What value are you putting on each teams home court?

There are way too many variables to be accurate just by using lines at covers without taking the above into consideration.

That's why Don's methods are too simplistic.