Anyone ever used NBA Ref stats for Betting?

[Timmah2483]

NBA.com releases the officials for the games around 12p.m. and some sites give the Over/Under records of officials, records if the same crew has worked together before, records per team and home/away records.

After an official being busted for cheating, this seems like the best way to bet!

[ACoochy]

http://www.nbastuffer.com/referee_stats

This is almost the only tool i use when capping NBA. Not interested in handicapping teams etc as i except the NBA is rigged....GL

[Preston09]

Sounds like a good idea. I'm in!

[Timmah2483]

the only problem with that site is it doesnt give you per team bets. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html this gives give todays assisgnments along with stats of the crew. its gives you the last 10 games the ref has officiated against both teams, along with stats of that game.

this could be a good method.. im going to watch it

[jmilacek]

Last year, if you bet strictly based on one of the refs ATS (I think it was Tony Brothers), you would've won a ton.

Edit - yeah, Tony Brothers.

Home team ATS
21-49-2

WTF?

[landers781]

and Brothers is reffing the spurs at golden state game today

[ouman101]

Its an interesting idea, same as using home plate umps in Baseball. My question is, has anyone used this for a season and what were they're results?

I agree, the Refs can change a game completely.

[Timmah2483]

I dont know that someone using this would be Detected unless large bets are being made. therefore, results could be calculated with historical stats

[smitch124]

The most glaring difference in some refs is home and away. Some refs really favor the home teams, others try to over compensate. I would focus on this, even above and beyond over and under refs.

[Timmah2483]

well, actually, you have to weigh in the fact that Home Teams generally win 70% of the time. over and under depends on the teams style of play. then factor in refs contribution to the game.

[smitch124]

well, actually, you have to weigh in the fact that Home Teams generally win 70% of the time. over and under depends on the teams style of play. then factor in refs contribution to the game.

To an extent, but a quicker easier way is just to look at their ATS records, not sure if such a database exists, but its easy to accumulate. My main point tho is that there are well known "Home" and Away" refs. I will post them in this thread if I can remember their names. I used to know them when I was a more active handicapper

[Nuggz]

Covers has all the ATS records for officials with a given team. I don't like to place a bet without at least glancing over it.

[Timmah2483]

a couple things to track tonight (some of my own formulas used to decide this also):

Boston at Cleveland +7 (refs are 10-0 ATS for Home Dogs)
Portland -3.5 at Philadelphia (refs are 2-1 for Portland this year, loss was by a .5 pt in OT, all road games)
Nets At NYK under 205 (refs are 10o/19u)
Lakers -5.5 at Memphis (refs are 13-21-2 ATS for home teams)
Pacers at Sacramento +4 (this is a me-only formula, otherwise its too even I think 1 ref will make this cover though.)
Spurs -4 at Golden State (2 refs are huge on away teams. plus T.Brothers factor)


6 games.. we'll see how this works for me. everyone feel free to present your own theories and methods to this

[dom75]

I wemt to covers and wrote down a list of todays games with ref stats and so forth. Going with the ATS records for the refs in the games today, here is what we have:

*** teams in ( ) would be a good lean according to the ref records for that game

Bos-Clev .... Home dog ATS is 4-0 combined ( Clev +6.5 )
Port - Phil .... home dog is 4-0 combined ( Phil + 3.5 )
Det-Orl .... Home fave is 2-2 combined
NJ - NY.... Home fave is 3-0 combined ( NYK -5 )
Lakers - Mem .... Home dog is 4-0 combined ( Mem +5.5 )
Indy - Sac ... Homedog is 1-2 combined
SA-GS ... Homedog is 5-3 combined ( GS +4.5 )

[Timmah2483]

I wemt to covers and wrote down a list of todays games with ref stats and so forth. Going with the ATS records for the refs in the games today, here is what we have:

*** teams in ( ) would be a good lean according to the ref records for that game

Bos-Clev .... Home dog ATS is 4-0 combined ( Clev +6.5 )
Port - Phil .... home dog is 4-0 combined ( Phil + 3.5 )
Det-Orl .... Home fave is 2-2 combined
NJ - NY.... Home fave is 3-0 combined ( NYK -5 )
Lakers - Mem .... Home dog is 4-0 combined ( Mem +5.5 )
Indy - Sac ... Homedog is 1-2 combined
SA-GS ... Homedog is 5-3 combined ( GS +4.5 )

ok DOM75 used the Home Fav/Home Dog as his method, I didnt wanna use this because some refs stats are missing here... example: Dick Bevetta ref'd 14 games and has a Home Fav/Dog record of 3-6/4-0. Thats only 13 games.

but anyways we can track this method as well, anyone else wanna use a different method and share it??

[F42294]

I understand that using the REF stats in the NBA is M-O-N-E-Y but I haven't figured out exactly how to use them. I think the basic idea's being presented in this thread is a good start but I think there is a little more to it than these initial thoughts. Meaning its not as easy as just trends. I thinking team playing style and ref foul call style plays into it also, so a ref who calls a lot of fouls in a game with a strong defensive team means the defensive team will be at a disadvantage due to the fact that most fouls are defensive fouls. A ref who tends to swallow his whistle will benefit the defensive team because they will get away with some of the ticky-tac fouls. There is probably more to it than this also but I have 2nd hand information that people who figure this angle out are money year in and year out.

I don't know if any of what I am thinking is right but just trying to add value to the thread and give cappers who are smarter than me something else to consider as we try and exploit this profitable angle together.

[Timmah2483]

that are kind of what i mean by using my own fomula. I take alot of that in consideration.

[F42294]

that are kind of what i mean by using my own fomula. I take alot of that in consideration.

Excellent. That would help account for the differences between your analysis and dom's. It's going to be interesting to watch the results over the next week and onward as you refine your formula. Hopefully this turns out to be the money I know it can.

I had already put a small play on BOS but after seeing your and doms play on CLE based on the refs I'm thinking of taking an offsetting CLE bet. I was thinking BOS had a little revenge in mind and Cle would be looking past BOS toward MIA.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[landers781]

Its not my only factor in making a play. But when everything lines up perfectly, and ref stats match I make a good sized wager

[Timmah2483]

landers, if you wish to put your theory on here and let us track it that would be awesome...

[Timmah2483]

17-8 cleveland good start... who knows but looking good game 1

[Timmah2483]

ouch 49-28 run since 8-17. nothing clear cut yet..

[Timmah2483]

gonna need the refs for NYK/NJN under 205... 1st half 113, need under 92 in second, thats prolly a loss

[Timmah2483]

wow, NYK/NJN game went from 58-55 quarters to 48 in the 3rd (33-15 home team. 2 shooting fouls on NJN to end the qtr)...

If this ends over 205, We might need to try reversing my theory, HAHA! Im 0-2, lookin at 0-3 shortly

[dom75]

F4 -- that was great thinking on your part in reguards to to picking Boston with Clevelands mind on Miami. I hope you didn't end up making a bet on Clev..... as we should all know this ref trend idea is in the beginning stages and all bets with this trending should be taken with care. I myself had single bets on Clev, Philly, Memphis and GS. I had pretty much decided on these plays before the ref stat and just used the ref stat to solidfy it.

[jscol]

I do agree with the thoughts that Refs can tend to favor a home or away team the majority of the time. But simply looking at ATS records can be misleading. There are plenty of games all the time where a certain team was going to blow out the other no matter who was reffing. Do these games make that ref favor that side? No but they would be reflected in his record.

I think the more key statistic is home/away foul percentage and looking at that with average number of fouls/free throws between the 2 teams. I do not know exactly how to implement it yet, but I do not think simply looking at ATS records for a ref is fool proof. However, some refs will definitely have biases and if you can notice them - all the power to you.

[Timmah2483]

wow, on Pace for 1-5 anyway.. could pull off the complete 0-6, if I do.. Im gonna monitor a backwards approach.

[landers781]

I might do that. I took San Antoine tonight even though it was a huge public play, but tony brothers is reffing and he is a huge road ref. Plus San Antoine is playing great right now. I just hope GSW doesnt decide to play crazy in the second half. Dick Bavetta was in Clev tonight and he likes to be on unders, but i want to wait a bit before going with the o.u trends

[Timmah2483]

1-5

[louisv516]

Lmao are u guys for real the NBA rigged if that was the case word would have been gotten out, the only thing rigged in America is it's government.....

This is almost the only tool i use when capping NBA. Not interested in handicapping teams etc as i except the NBA is rigged....GL[/QUOTE]

[Timmah2483]

haha, seriously? when tim donuaghy(sp?) was caught he came out about all the officals sayin well AI said this about us, lets make sure and make him work tonight.. and there was a good span where AI really got beaten up, but without names you cant know who it was..

I have no doubt all refs or officials have human emotions and call things differently for some as they would others.. so IMO, that in itself is rigging the outcome. finding who favors which team, and so worth would def change my outlook on betting.

do I think they rig the whole league and every game absolutely not... but behind every zebra shirt is a man with an opinion.

[landers781]

of course the nba is rigged. You gotta be on the right side of the fix. Go against the trends of the corrupt officials and you might get burned. Remember last year the whole arenas issue? What sparked that? A gambling debt. Tim donaghuey gets outted. Every since i factored refs in games, i do much better. Like i said, its not the only tool but its definatly a tool non the less

[THEGREAT30]

should be a factor

[marcoloco]

makes sense, im in

[MortalLock]

I probablly should start looking into refs before i bet the games.