Steelers -6.5....LOCK

**rdo37** · 11-28-10, 02:51 AM

square plays can still win...

**iMxth3xbossx5000** · 11-28-10, 02:53 AM

Already big on Pittsburgh. Apparently Andy Fanelli's 75 Dimer in the services section was enough to convince me.

**Illusion** · 11-28-10, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by rdo37

square plays can still win...

You are right...Pit should be an easy win...50 unit play?

**BigOrangeTitans** · 11-28-10, 02:55 AM

im staying far far away, unless the ml hits 275 or better for buffalo somewhere.

**Nickelicious** · 11-28-10, 03:08 AM

Indeed, this seems like a trap. Fitzpatrick should be able to keep the Bills in the game til the end and then maybe steal a victory in front of the home crowd. Buffalo's been competitive all year and the Steelers, despite a dominant run defense, have not dominated many opponents. But they did crush Oakland last week, just when you thought the Raiders might be for real.

I've been on Pittsburgh since last Monday, though, when I was afraid the line would go higher than 6.5 (it hasn't). Pittsburgh needs this game and won't be taking the Bills lightly at all. If the Steelers lose to Buffalo, they could be battling to make the playoffs instead of battling for home field advantage. Pittsburgh is the superior team in almost every aspect of the game and should win this game by 10 to 14 points.

**Pap45murF** · 11-28-10, 03:10 AM

I thought I hit an early line of Steelers -6.. but after checking my bets again, I must've been drunk when I bet cause I took a teaser of Steelers -1 which is fine... but then I took the UNDER 50... and I'm drunk right now as well. Let this be a lesson to all posters, stay sober.

**CaptainPrice** · 11-28-10, 03:21 AM

I'm flip floppin so I'm stating back, I dong trust buffalo enough

**Nepaa** · 11-28-10, 03:23 AM

steelers -6 is really tempting... is it really a trap game?

**Nickelicious** · 11-28-10, 03:32 AM

Originally posted by Nepaa

steelers -6 is really tempting... is it really a trap game?

It will be if they lose.

**Marigold HD** · 11-28-10, 03:36 AM

Staying away from this one

**Illusion** · 11-28-10, 03:36 AM

Originally posted by Nepaa

steelers -6 is really tempting... is it really a trap game?

Pit may cover, but the books are begging you to take them. 80% or higher of the public will be all over the Steelers. So yes, this is a classic trap.

**BigWilly** · 11-28-10, 03:40 AM

I like it, lets go steelers

**RAVENSFAN** · 11-28-10, 03:40 AM

Man, NE -6.5 was a "trap" too on Thanksgiving and 80% + of the public was on them too, and we all know what happened in that game......too much talk about TRAPS around here. Compare the 2 teams....PITTS is the MUCH better defense OBV and offense is great too and QB better etc etc and the list goes on. Pick the better team with a line like this and long term you will win. If Bills show up then oh well. On to the next game....

**CBASS** · 11-28-10, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

Indeed, this seems like a trap. Fitzpatrick should be able to keep the Bills in the game til the end and then maybe steal a victory in front of the home crowd. Buffalo's been competitive all year and the Steelers, despite a dominant run defense, have not dominated many opponents. But they did crush Oakland last week, just when you thought the Raiders might be for real.

I've been on Pittsburgh since last Monday, though, when I was afraid the line would go higher than 6.5 (it hasn't). Pittsburgh needs this game and won't be taking the Bills lightly at all. If the Steelers lose to Buffalo, they could be battling to make the playoffs instead of battling for home field advantage. Pittsburgh is the superior team in almost every aspect of the game and should win this game by 10 to 14 points.

Great analysis. I love when people actually post good info. on the topic so that we can bounce it around. Too many threads simply state who they like, but don't explain why. Any feedback is better than no feedback.

**Illusion** · 11-28-10, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by RAVENSFAN

Man, NE -6.5 was a "trap" too on Thanksgiving and 80% + of the public was on them too, and we all know what happened in that game......too much talk about TRAPS around here. Compare the 2 teams....PITTS is the MUCH better defense OBV and offense is great too and QB better etc etc and the list goes on. Pick the better team with a line like this and long term you will win. If Bills show up then oh well. On to the next game....

Ask yourself this then. Why would the books offer such a juicey line in "WEEK 12"? These lines are about as sharp as they can be. So, did they miss the boat? My years of experience say no, but what do I know.

**Nickelicious** · 11-28-10, 03:57 AM

For what it's worth, AccuScore has the Steelers winning by 9.5 points. We all know AccuScore is far from flawless, but anytime they see a field goal difference in any NFL score vs. what the spread is indicating (which is actually quite rare), I always look deeper at both teams and the game. I picked the Steelers before AccuScore simulated the game 10,000 times, but their results did make me feel better about the choice I made.

**Illusion** · 11-28-10, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

For what it's worth, AccuScore has the Steelers winning by 9.5 points. We all know AccuScore is far from flawless, but anytime they see a field goal difference in any NFL score vs. what the spread is indicating (which is actually quite rare), I always look deeper at both teams and the game. I picked the Steelers before AccuScore simulated the game 10,000 times, but their results did make me feel better about the choice I made.

Which is why I am scraching my head. Books are begging for Pit action. Should be interesting. Good luck on your bet. Maybe teasing this is the best option.

**RAVENSFAN** · 11-28-10, 04:03 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

Ask yourself this then. Why would the books offer such a juicey line in "WEEK 12"? These lines are about as sharp as they can be. So, did they miss the boat? My years of experience say no, but what do I know.

Not disagreeing or arguing. Just stating the facts. The NE -6.5 against the LIONS was about as JUICY as you could get as well and a TON of ppl were on DET +6.5 because the line was too "trappy" in their opinion. And they all thought that at the half they could go cash their tickets and then NE blew them out.....Same situation pretty much...

Im not saying I think PITTS will blowout Buffalo. I actually said in my teaser thread that I feel this could easily be a 3 pt PITTS win. I just am sick of hearing ppl talk about all these "traps" because I think these "trappy lines" that look this way are sometimes just put out to make ppl overthink it and balance the money the books get to each side. The best team can still prevail very easily. But it's the NFL.....anything can happen. Especially this season lol

**Shortstop** · 11-28-10, 04:06 AM

This will be like a home game for the Steelers.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are more Steelers fans than Bills fans at the game.

**RAVENSFAN** · 11-28-10, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

Which is why I am scraching my head. Books are begging for Pit action. Should be interesting. Good luck on your bet. Maybe teasing this is the best option.

And to this point I AGREE totally. I got PITTS as a PK in my 3 game 6 pt teaser....(the line musta been at -6 when I did the writeup on it and locked it in)

**itchypickle** · 11-28-10, 04:48 AM

Please list reasons for the trap...on the field reasons....not the books action.

**CBASS** · 11-28-10, 05:29 AM

Originally posted by itchypickle

Please list reasons for the trap...on the field reasons....not the books action.

^^^This

I agree. We need more 'on the field' input.
I have this game capped at Pitt -9

**Nickelicious** · 11-28-10, 05:39 AM

I would say the primary reasons for declaring this a "trap game" for the Steelers are:

They are 7-3 and Buffalo is 2-8: it would be natural for Pittsburgh to subconsciously perceive this underrated opponent as an easy victim.

They face an epic showdown with Baltimore the following week that will determine control of the division, which means they might be looking ahead despite knowing they shouldn't be looking ahead.

They are no. 1 defending the run; but Buffalo will be passing the shit out of the ball and the Steelers could be vulnerable to that, even though they think they have a dominant defense.

Buffalo is the worst team defending against the run so the Steelers think they will kick ass running the ball; but Mendenhall is an average rusher at best and Pittsburgh will waste too much time trying to establish a running game that Mendenhall can't fulfill.

**Michaelmakesit** · 11-28-10, 05:54 AM

nickkaaayyyy

**floridagolfer** · 11-28-10, 06:57 AM

Buffalo isn't winning this game. Whether the Bills cover the 7, that's the question.

**PittsburghPlayer** · 11-28-10, 07:06 AM

Good points Nickel. I will not play this game, though gun to head I`d be on Buffalo.

**Hilljacademics** · 11-28-10, 07:28 AM

Top play for the week, BUF +6. Added more ham @ +6.5....we'll see

**hhsilver** · 11-28-10, 09:00 AM

Status of pitt's o-line???? 2 weeks ago they were missing 2 starters and the subs were making their 1st start. they were crushed by NE. Last week , they were still out and i think they lost Essex , another starter, during the game. The team , and I assume the o-line , was great vs Oakland.
I have no conclusion here. Just wondering if the new guys will handle Buff's d-line.

About the post above which said "any feedback is better than no feedback" :
I strongly disagree (disrespect of (many) sbr posters intended )

**BIGDAY** · 11-28-10, 09:18 AM

Don't care if this is a trap or not... I can not trust the Bills to keep this within 6. Why are the Bills going to play this game so hard for?
I'll bite... I'm on the Steelers. BIG

Best of luck with your play today!

**aman86** · 11-28-10, 09:23 AM

Agreed similar situation to Pitt game although this one will stay under

**ouman101** · 11-28-10, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Michaelmakesit

nickkaaayyyy

Proof you've been around before pal...

I like the steelers in this one. I don't see Pittsburgh overlooking this game.

**Vesuvius** · 11-28-10, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by Shortstop

This will be like a home game for the Steelers.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are more Steelers fans than Bills fans at the game.

Would be interesting to see.

**no1here** · 11-28-10, 09:41 AM

logged in just to find info on this game as Pitt was my choice bet for today. Still is but I am public.

**Waterstpub87** · 11-28-10, 09:42 AM

I think under is the play here