Hey guys! How many of you have your own system that works well for you?

[donjuan]

dude its' fine...just isn't his thing...there are daily players on ml parlay's so obviously it works for a lot of us or we wouldn't be doing it...

Ganchrow made a good post on this a week or two back. You're much more likely to get lucky over a smallish sample size and be up from dog MLs than from fav MLs, making it easier to deceive yourself into thinking you're making good bets.

its not a significant source of income...its extra money on the side that i wouldve blown away at the bars anyway...and so far im not blowing it doing what i do...if you dont like how i go about my business who cares? im sure we will both live on...the ML's i get on are mostly > +ev so with my other parlay make me around +ev...is that that bad?

Around +ev? Do you have a clue what EV is?

I'm not neccessarily trying to convince you to stop donking it up, but I do take issue with posts that mislead a newbie.

[WestsidePete]

betting ml parlays in the first round of 64 in the tourny will pay off huge....personally for me...the rounds of 64 and 32 are probably the biggest gainers of the year for me in anything I bet on all year

[Quebb Diesel]

im assuming you mean +even or making my money back and then some...and what ganchrow is probably referring to is the law of large numbers...the larger the sample size the more the probability of success grounds to 50%...pick up a statistics book...

[donjuan]

im assuming you mean +even

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[WestsidePete]

Ganchrow made a good post on this a week or two back. You're much more likely to get lucky over a smallish sample size and be up from dog MLs than from fav MLs, making it easier to deceive yourself into thinking you're making good bets.



Around +ev? Do you have a clue what EV is?

I'm not neccessarily trying to convince you to stop donking it up, but I do take issue with posts that mislead a newbie.

I agree on baseball dogs when you realize an entire 3 or 4 game series can have the same team as a dog...

[donjuan]

I agree on baseball dogs when you realize an entire 3 or 4 game series can have the same team as a dog...

This has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

[Quebb Diesel]

i guess you are right...i am an idiot...please correct my ignorance

[WestsidePete]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

you don't need to laugh because he doesn't know...don't be a jerk...be cool and help more to understand then to criticize

[Quebb Diesel]

alright alright...expected value...ill send you a copy of my b.s. degree in statistics if you would like in may?

[donjuan]

you don't need to laugh because he doesn't know...don't be a jerk...be cool and help more to understand then to criticize

I'm sorry but that is hilarious on a lot of levels, one of which is a semi-inside joke.

[diogee]

No crap...EV is expected variance over a sample of plays. With that being said I would say that +EV means that the player has an expected edge over time. Is that correct?

BTW the no crap is towards westside's comment about not criticizing. I should have quoted the post.

[WestsidePete]

This has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

yes it does....you're taking about all sports and I'm agreeing with baseball as one of them...easier to pick baseball dogs and play their ml's then in other sports....

[donjuan]

yes it does....you're taking about all sports and I'm agreeing with baseball as one of them...easier to pick baseball dogs and play their ml's then in other sports....

I'm not talking about it being "easier" to pick dog MLs. I'm talking about how it's easier to delude yourself into thinking you're making +ev bets when in reality you are just getting lucky. This is a math concept that applies to all sports, not just baseball.

[donjuan]

ill send you a copy of my b.s. degree in statistics if you would like in may?

Please stop. My sides can't take this much laughter.

[donjuan]

EV is expected variance over a sample of plays.

Try again.

[Quebb Diesel]

Ev = E(x) = Ex

[diogee]

I just assumed that it was your expected edge over x number of plays...I will familiarize myself with it in the morning.

[WestsidePete]

I'm not talking about it being "easier" to pick dog MLs. I'm talking about how it's easier to delude yourself into thinking you're making +ev bets when in reality you are just getting lucky. This is a math concept that applies to all sports, not just baseball.

how is it getting lucky picking 3 or 4 favs in basketball where the spread is between 6-12 pts and playing the ml on them??..they could all lose on the spread but win the bet...fav's win everyday..but obviously don't always cover...there have been many days where I'll go 1-2 on straight plays with the spread but clean up on ml parlays and teasers...and by clean up I'm talking about selecting 15 to 20 teams and 90% or higher come thru because the given spread has been either removed on a fav or increased on a dog...

[donjuan]

how is it getting lucky picking 3 or 4 favs in basketball where the spread is between 6-12 pts and playing the ml on them??..they could all lose on the spread but win the bet...fav's win everyday..but obviously don't always cover...there have been many days where I'll go 1-2 on straight plays with the spread but clean up on ml parlays and teasers...and by clean up I'm talking about selecting 15 to 20 teams and 90% or higher come thru because the given spread has been either removed on a fav or increased on a dog...

1. We were talking about dog MLs, not fav MLs.
2. If you think a sample size of 3 or 4 represents something other than luck, the joke is on you.

[WestsidePete]

how is the joke on me?? Picking 3 favs just to win out of 20 games in a given night is not luck...why don't you post any picks?? Just tell people off but post no picks...I need to look at games for tomorrow...later

[Quebb Diesel]

he isnt telling us off...he is just saying theoretically we arent making good bets...does ganch have any threads explaining his perception on calculating expected values of sports bets? id actually like to read about his perspective

[Alry45]

donjuan do you get your jollies by trying to act like a hardass?

[WestsidePete]

I find it interesting that he posts no picks...I can tell he knows what he's talking about but can't even post plays

[WestsidePete]

he isnt telling us off...he is just saying theoretically we arent making good bets...does ganch have any threads explaining his perception on calculating expected values of sports bets? id actually like to read about his perspective

yes...he does have a thread regarding this...

[20Four7]

I find it interesting that he posts no picks...I can tell he knows what he's talking about but can't even post plays

Posting plays doesn't mean you know what you are doing. I rarely post plays except in contests.

Ev may mean The Land of Ev, a fairy country which appears in the book Ozma of Oz.

However I think the definition you might be looking for is:
Expected value, a basic concept in the mathematical field of probability

Please feel free to google it.

[Willie Bee]

But you dont share it with anyone else? I am curious about this.

My guess is those that do aren't going to share it in this thread and those that dont but say they do are simply looking for some attention. I could be wrong.

[RageWizard]

I didn't have time to read any of the posted comments on this thread but my system worked well for me until the last season. It goes like this:

I only invest in the NFL, and only one game a week. Every season I decide how much 1 unit is going to be worth and then the first 2 weeks are worth 8 units. Weeks 3 through 14 are worth 10 units with one of those weeks being my pick of the year worth an additional 5 units. Weeks 15-17 are worth 8 units. Playoffs are invested on sparingly. This system has work well for me for 6 years until last year when it all came unglued. I hope next year to get back on track.

[durito]

1. We were talking about dog MLs, not fav MLs.
2. If you think a sample size of 3 or 4 represents something other than luck, the joke is on you.

What they are trying to do is find a group of favorite money lines that they like and then parlay them in order to "reduce the juice" not realizing of course that that is not in fact what they are doing.


...


There's nothing wrong with playing 3 team ML favorites parlays, but if all 3 ML's are +EV you should be betting them independently as well.

[BigBollocks]

Donjuan's just another youthful malcontent. Every thread he posts on here bashes someone. Why the mods never banned him is beyond me...

The worst part is when someone thinks they're intelligent, but really are fairly par for the course. He's an undergrad at Colorado, throws out the Kelly criterion and the term "EV," and then acts like he is an advanced capper/mathematician lol. I've never seen him once breakdown numbers or create a useful handicapping tool.

I have no doubt he's above average for an undergrad at a state school, but he'd quickly find out he doesn't have the horsepower to sit in a stats classroom with 90% Asian students at a superior school at the doctoral level (speaking from experience). It's like how semi-bad players insult really bad players in poker. He's fairly dumb and insecure, so he tries to pass that off on others who might be just a little worse (granted they're all probably happier with their lives).

Again, why a malcontent like him who offers nothing to the forum is allowed on here is still beyond me...

[donjuan]

Durito,

Yep, as I said earlier in the thread.

BigBollocks,

Probably has to do with the fact that I'm right when I "bash" someone. You obviously have some jealousy issues, but that's OK.

[Quebb Diesel]

stats lectures dont teach the term EV...more along the lines of EX/E(X) nor do any of my stat lectures teach the kelly criterion...granted im ignorant to the term EV in a gambler's definition, but i prefer the more theoretical definition you find in statistics books

[donjuan]

stats lectures dont teach the term EV...more along the lines of EX/E(X) nor do any of my stat lectures teach the kelly criterion...granted im ignorant to the term EV in a gambler's definition, but i prefer the more theoretical definition you find in statistics books

So you're a stats major who can't figure out how to apply that to gambling?

P.S. Expected growth is more important than expected value.