Betting units

[Louisvillekid1]

Yes it would, not only do they not post their picks but not 1 post is sports related. It all math theory which durito and donjuan are very good at.

[durito]

I am not very good at math.

I posted some plays last month in the basketball parlay of the day contest.

I have never made any statements regarding my ability to pick winners or losers.

[TLD]

It would be nice to know if those players are winners in their life-time. Not over a 1-2 week period, but overall. Until then it is just talk. Would be also nice to compare their bets with flat betting and see the difference.

Yes it would, not only do they not post their picks but not 1 post is sports related. It all math theory which durito and donjuan are very good at.

You’re mistaken in believing that one needs to be skilled at prognosticating the outcome of sporting events in order to know and understand what factors are relevant in determining optimum bet size.

[Arnold]

You’re mistaken in believing that one needs to be skilled at prognosticating the outcome of sporting events in order to know and understand what factors are relevant in determining optimum bet size.

I may be wrong, but people usually defend the system they are using. I assumed those that defended Kelly, use it and must be successful, or otherwise there is no point in defending something that takes your money from you.

[donjuan]

I only really cap one sport, as well as two conferences of college bball and football. But I bet a ton more games based on finding rogue lines. It's really pretty easy, but of course capping is far more fun. FWIW, I'm in the red on the sport I handicap this year, although I'm not too concerned due to a small sample size and the fact that I've beat closing lines at Pinnacle over 80% of the time.

[TLD]

I may be wrong, but people usually defend the system they are using. I assumed those that defended Kelly, use it and must be successful, or otherwise there is no point in defending something that takes your money from you.

I would suggest examining the matter on its merits rather than trying to judge it indirectly by assigning credibility or lack of credibility to its proponents based on whether they post picks.

Besides what I and others have posted in this thread, a search of this site will turn up many other threads where it is explained why the degree of one’s edge is relevant to optimum bet size. Ganchrow’s many posts on the matter are certainly to be recommended in this context.

[durito]

Really? So if you “see” that you have an edge at –7, and just as you go to make your bet, you notice you can make it at another book that was slow to move its line and still has –6, you’re incapable of understanding that the –6 bet has a greater edge than the –7 bet?

I'd like an answer to this question from one of the flat bettors.

[Louisvillekid1]

Of course -6 is better but that doesn't mean im going to unload on that game because I liked it at 7 and I got a 1 point more favorable line.

[durito]

No one's telling you to unload.

You now have a better edge but you will bet the same amount?

[Arnold]

No one's telling you to unload.

You now have a better edge but you will bet the same amount?

You think that you have a better edge. The reality is always independent of someone's thoughts.

[tomcowley]

You think that you have a better edge. The reality is always independent of someone's thoughts.

You only THINK -6 is a better bet than -7?

[20Four7]

You only THINK -6 is a better bet than -7?

If you truly believe you have an edge at -7 then you have a larger edge at -6. That's not saying you don't have an edge at -7 mind you.

[NEP Dynasty]

This is pretty laughable. I've read about 500 condescending donjuan posts and I eagerly wait his picks, but all I hear is the sound of crickets chirping. Seriously, put up or shut up.

Not surprising.

[Arnold]

You only THINK -6 is a better bet than -7?

What if fair line is really a -3? Then what? You don't have an edge with either -6 or -7.

[Louisvillekid1]

The edge isnt that much better anyway, 9/10 times the one point won't even matter. Lets just agree to disagree, im done seeing this thread.

[MoneySportsGuy]

It would be nice to know if those players are winners in their life-time. Not over a 1-2 week period, but overall. Until then it is just talk. Would be also nice to compare their bets with flat betting and see the difference.

I can definitely agree with that.

[MoneySportsGuy]

The edge isnt that much better anyway, 9/10 times the one point won't even matter. Lets just agree to disagree, im done seeing this thread.

wait Louisville I got a question

how is one or two points dont really matter? It seems to me sometimes that is difference between losing the bet, pushing, or winning, especially why it seems alot like teasers as they can get the extra points that are needed to actually win the games and not push or lose their wager.

[donjuan]

Lvillekid,

The edge isnt that much better anyway, 9/10 times the one point won't even matter. Lets just agree to disagree, im done seeing this thread.

Um, more than 90% of the time 1 point won't matter, but that doesn't make it meaningless. For example, if you have a 2.97% edge at -7 in NCAAB and you get -6, your edge will be 10.47%. You've just more than tripled your edge. But yeah, it doesn't matter.

Arnold,

This is supposed to be about advantage gambling, not donking it up with ridiculously -EV bets.

[20Four7]

The edge isnt that much better anyway, 9/10 times the one point won't even matter. Lets just agree to disagree, im done seeing this thread.

If it didn't matter the book wouldn't charge you more juice to buy the point. Yes it does matter in the scheme of things, it may not matter in the outcome but that point is mute. Buying that point off the 7 for the fav will probably run you 20-25 cents in juice for NFL.

[LT Profits]

if you have a 2.97% edge at -7 in NCAAB and you get -6, your edge will be 10.47%.

Are you sure you are not talking about football with the key number of 7? A jump of 8% seems like a lot for one point in baskets.

And is you are indeed talking about hoops, what is the edge differece betweem -7 and -6 in NFL? It must be huge.

[durito]

Are you sure you are not talking about football with the key number of 7? A jump of 8% seems like a lot for one point in baskets.

And is you are indeed talking about hoops, what is the edge differece betweem -7 and -6 in NFL? It must be huge.

He's talking about the increase in edge, not your increase in % chance of covering which is about 4% for 1pt in NCAA basketball -- which is hardly the trivial amount louisivlle kid suggests -- in fact it's the difference between making lots of money and none.

[20Four7]

Are you sure you are not talking about football with the key number of 7? A jump of 8% seems like a lot for one point in baskets.

And is you are indeed talking about hoops, what is the edge differece betweem -7 and -6 in NFL? It must be huge.

The -4.55 is the vig you give up normally.
Using Ganch's Half point calculator (if I did it correctly):

NFL -7 -110 -4.55%
-6 -110 4.47%

NCAAFB -7 -110 -4.55%
-6 -110 3.15%

NBA -7 -110 -4.55%
-6 -110 3.69%

NCAABB -7 -110 -4.55%
-6 -110 2.98%

[LT Profits]

OK guys, looks good. I take the opposite approach of a lot of bettors in that I would rather give up half a point or even a full point to get my bet to + odds. (God I miss Pinnacle, but I digress). So based on this, "selling" a point should cost me about 8% of the time, but that simply wasn't the case in reality. Maybe it's a good thing that I can't sell points anymore, because it seems the gambling gods would have caught up with me eventually.

[durito]

Not at all LT. The 8% change is the change in your edge.

For example: a 55% play at -110 has a 5% edge, while a 59% play at -110 has a 12.64% edge.

If you give up a pt from say -7 -110 to -8 +110 you've actually increased your edge. (based on the 1/2 pt data calculator, assuming a book will give you those odds)

Your bet will win approx 4% less of the time (1/2 pts in NCAAB are worth approx 1.9%) but you are receiving higher payout odds.

[20Four7]

Durito is correct LT. You need +108.3 to keep the same edge at -7 (-110) as at -8. So if you got the +110 he spoke about you have increased your edge. If you got it at +105, it was a bad move. I do the same as you when I see a blow out coming, I will move the line. Mind you sometimes it does come back to bite you and not in a nice Badnina or Swede kinda way.

[MrX]

...but that point is mute.

The point is moot. Sorry, I'm not usually all into correcting grammar, but I'm on a mission to wipe out this disturbing "mute point" problem.

Also acceptable is "moo point" a la Joey from Friends. "Like a cow's opinion. It just doesn't matter. It's moo."