ever laid more than -700 on a single wager?

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  • zerocage
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-29-06
    • 769

    #71
    Zerocage does not promote NOT BEING confident! If your system works for you, then your system works for you.
    Comment
    • HedgeHog
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 09-11-07
      • 10128

      #72
      Originally posted by icemantbi
      Never. Why risk $700 to win a measly $100? I saw alot of people risking -400 on the Pats for the SB. We saw how that turned out. Just this weekend in soccer, Man United lost as a -450 favourite to Man City, a +1050 Dog.

      No game is a lock, so you have to find value in lines. You will be much better off if you can find value.

      just my 2c.
      If you know you have a bet that is 90% likely to win, and you only have to spot 7-1, wouldn't you agree there's value.
      Comment
      • zerocage
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-29-06
        • 769

        #73
        Wasn't New England 90 percent likely to win?? There are lots of variable do you not agree??
        Comment
        • durito
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-03-06
          • 13173

          #74
          Originally posted by zerocage
          Zerocage does not promote NOT BEING confident! If your system works for you, then your system works for you.
          can i be your bookie?
          Comment
          • durito
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-03-06
            • 13173

            #75
            Originally posted by zerocage
            Wasn't New England 90 percent likely to win?? There are lots of variable do you not agree??

            What's your point here? If the true odds of them winning that game were 90% then -400 was a great play -- regardless of the outcome of the game.
            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82840

              #76
              I laid -3000 that Mario DeVito will not leave this forum by March 1st and the book rejected it.
              Comment
              • donjuan
                SBR MVP
                • 08-29-07
                • 3993

                #77
                Some people just don't understand that being results oriented is not a good thing.
                Comment
                • zerocage
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 08-29-06
                  • 769

                  #78
                  Originally posted by durito
                  What's your point here? If the true odds of them winning that game were 90% then -400 was a great play -- regardless of the outcome of the game.
                  So even if it loses, its a good bet?
                  Comment
                  • zerocage
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 08-29-06
                    • 769

                    #79
                    Originally posted by durito
                    can i be your bookie?
                    I don't want your money
                    Comment
                    • durito
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-03-06
                      • 13173

                      #80
                      Originally posted by zerocage
                      So even if it loses, its a good bet?

                      OK. Let's say I have a fair coin, ie 50% chance of landing heads and 50% chance of landing tails.

                      I offer you tails for +110. Is this a good bet?

                      If it lands on heads, was it a good bet?
                      Comment
                      • durito
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 07-03-06
                        • 13173

                        #81
                        Originally posted by icemantbi
                        Never. Why risk $700 to win a measly $100? I saw alot of people risking -400 on the Pats for the SB. We saw how that turned out. Just this weekend in soccer, Man United lost as a -450 favourite to Man City, a +1050 Dog.

                        No game is a lock, so you have to find value in lines. You will be much better off if you can find value.

                        just my 2c.

                        So, there can't be value in a game priced at -700?
                        Comment
                        • zerocage
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 08-29-06
                          • 769

                          #82
                          Are we going into "bad beats" territory? I don't know what your definition of a good bet is , that is why I asked.
                          Comment
                          • zerocage
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 08-29-06
                            • 769

                            #83
                            Please, show me where you've been -700 or more over and over.....................
                            Comment
                            • durito
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-03-06
                              • 13173

                              #84
                              Originally posted by zerocage
                              Are we going into "bad beats" territory? I don't know what your definition of a good bet is , that is why I asked.
                              A good bet is + expected value bet, like tails at +110.


                              Individual results are irrelevant.

                              If you put down $10,000 on red at the roulette table and it hits, it was still a -EV bet.
                              Comment
                              • zerocage
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-29-06
                                • 769

                                #85
                                Originally posted by durito
                                A good bet is + expected value bet, like tails at +110.


                                Individual results are irrelevant.

                                If you put down $10,000 on red at the roulette table and it hits, it was still a -EV bet.
                                Yes. But having an edge @ -700 on a regular basis, I just don't see. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong here. I like to get different angles on how people do things.
                                Comment
                                • donjuan
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-29-07
                                  • 3993

                                  #86
                                  Would you offer me -700 on any team in NCAAB today?
                                  Comment
                                  • durito
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-03-06
                                    • 13173

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by zerocage
                                    Yes. But having an edge @ -700 on a regular basis, I just don't see. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong here. I like to get different angles on how people do things.

                                    OK, so then if there is never an edge at -700, wouldn't betting the underdog on that game then frequently have an edge?

                                    Or, are the bookmakers 100% accurate?

                                    No one is telling you to go bet all -700's. You need to find edges wherever they exist, whether at +200 or -10000.
                                    Comment
                                    • Poker_Beast
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-14-06
                                      • 6545

                                      #88
                                      I would never bet on a line that high. One loss and it's all over.
                                      Comment
                                      • curious
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 07-20-07
                                        • 9093

                                        #89
                                        I dont' like to bet MLB at odds worse than -170. I dont like to give up more than about 15 points in NCAAB. I don't like to give up more than about 10 points in NFL.
                                        Comment
                                        • zerocage
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 08-29-06
                                          • 769

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by durito
                                          OK, so then if there is never an edge at -700, wouldn't betting the underdog on that game then frequently have an edge?

                                          Or, are the bookmakers 100% accurate?

                                          No one is telling you to go bet all -700's. You need to find edges wherever they exist, whether at +200 or -10000.
                                          Comment
                                          • zerocage
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-29-06
                                            • 769

                                            #91
                                            Most would not lay -1000 . No way. If you need to keep your money flowing , I don't see a problem with a -700 every once in a while in spots but I don't see anyone laying -700 all the time!
                                            Comment
                                            • RageWizard
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-01-06
                                              • 3008

                                              #92
                                              Each unit wagered this year for me is worth $250. On my NFL supernova lock of the moment I lay down 15 units. On any other bet that is over 2.8 units will be at or over the 700 mark.
                                              Comment
                                              • tacomax
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-10-05
                                                • 9619

                                                #93
                                                I think this thread is a good example why books tend not to go broke.
                                                Originally posted by pags11
                                                SBR would never get rid of me...ever...
                                                Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                                I'd probably most likely chose Pags to jack off too.
                                                Originally posted by curious
                                                taco is not a troll, he is a bubonic plague bacteria.
                                                Comment
                                                • TurbanCowboy40
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 02-11-08
                                                  • 55

                                                  #94
                                                  Georgetown -900 last night was a retarded bet. GTOWN lives in 50 point games which means the opposing team has a very good chance at keeping the game close. GTOWN is overrated this year. Villanova always plays them tight.

                                                  To bet 900 to win 100 is stupid, especially in basketball, especially in NBA basketball.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HedgeHog
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 09-11-07
                                                    • 10128

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by TurbanCowboy40
                                                    Georgetown -900 last night was a retarded bet.* GTOWN lives in 50 point games which means the opposing team has a very good chance at keeping the game close.* GTOWN is overrated this year.* Villanova always plays them tight.To bet 900 to win 100 is stupid, especially in basketball, especially in NBA basketball.
                                                    Not always. Handicap each game individually. Would you lay -900 on Gonzaga (31 point fav) over Loyola-Maramount? Hell yes. Sometimes you can find value in large ML favs.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TurbanCowboy40
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 02-11-08
                                                      • 55

                                                      #96
                                                      What 31 point favorite in the history of gambling was -900 money line?

                                                      I just came on this forum the other day and I'm really not impressed with the comments and questions of many people on here.

                                                      Covers and wagerline destroy this site.

                                                      Originally posted by HedgeHog
                                                      Not always. Handicap each game individually. Would you lay -900 on Gonzaga (31 point fav) over Loyola-Maramount? Hell yes. Sometimes you can find value in large ML favs.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HedgeHog
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 09-11-07
                                                        • 10128

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by TurbanCowboy40
                                                        What 31 point favorite in the history of gambling was -900 money line?

                                                        I just came on this forum the other day and I'm really not impressed with the comments and questions of many people on here.

                                                        Covers and wagerline destroy this site.
                                                        None. My point is that if you handicap a game that you feel has a 95%chance of winning, then laying 9-1 is not a bad deal. Normally I wouldn't lay that much wood, but sometimes it makes sense.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • teazeman
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 12-27-07
                                                          • 318

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by TurbanCowboy40
                                                          Covers and wagerline destroy this site.


                                                          you just lost me.......a couple of sites that discuss gambling but their posters don't really wager actual money.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • durito
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-03-06
                                                            • 13173

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by TurbanCowboy40
                                                            What 31 point favorite in the history of gambling was -900 money line?

                                                            I just came on this forum the other day and I'm really not impressed with the comments and questions of many people on here.

                                                            Covers and wagerline destroy this site.

                                                            Each one of Ganchrow's posts has more relevant information than those boards do combined.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • zerocage
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 08-29-06
                                                              • 769

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by durito
                                                              Each one of Ganchrow's posts has more relevant information than those boards do combined.
                                                              I agree
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mofome
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 12-19-07
                                                                • 13003

                                                                #101
                                                                hedgehog, reading this i came away impressed with your knowledge, ability to explain your views, and the way you choose to make your points.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pavyracer
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 04-12-07
                                                                  • 82840

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by HedgeHog
                                                                  None. My point is that if you handicap a game that you feel has a 95%chance of winning, then laying 9-1 is not a bad deal. Normally I wouldn't lay that much wood, but sometimes it makes sense.
                                                                  You must have met Pats ML on superboel
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mofome
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 12-19-07
                                                                    • 13003

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by durito
                                                                    Each one of Ganchrow's posts has more relevant information than those boards do combined.


                                                                    truer words i do not recall.

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • twtb19
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-08-07
                                                                      • 553

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by mofome
                                                                      hedgehog, reading this i came away impressed with your knowledge, ability to explain your views, and the way you choose to make your points.
                                                                      Couldn't agree more, thanks to Hedgehog and I think it was durito for making the point of this thread very easy to understand for everyone.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Ganchrow
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 08-28-05
                                                                        • 5011

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by durito
                                                                        Each one of Ganchrow's posts has more relevant information than those boards do combined.
                                                                        Not this one.
                                                                        Comment
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