ATTN: Nicky Santoro is Sharper than you

[Cap dat 4ss]

Stat,

Can you explain the concept of this type of betting to a noob?

What I gather is that I should be able to recognize bad #'s and bet them, correct? If so, how do I go about recognizing whether or not a number is bad?

[yisman]

Stat,

Can you explain the concept of this type of betting to a noob?

What I gather is that I should be able to recognize bad #'s and bet them, correct? If so, how do I go about recognizing whether or not a number is bad?

Compare it to the general market price.

Pinnacle and Matchbook generally have the sharpest lines.

[statnerds]

Compare it to the general market price.

Pinnacle and Matchbook generally have the sharpest lines.

What he said.

And have an idea of push frequencies, or click here to determine the value of a half point. and then go back and read the post in this thread where Nicky put the math out there.

And if you are using a local, it is as simple as looking at shaded sides of games. That is assuming your local is giving you -110 on every bet. As he did for me on the Philly game when 5Dimes had Phi Pk at -125.

And if you are truly a noob, have a decent BR, bet 1-3% per play and focus long term.

And then don't look for advice from me, I still have tons to learn, but seek out advice from or just read posts from guys like Iceman, Durito, Nicky, Sharpcat, Justin7...everyone of those guys has taught me much.

[Cap dat 4ss]

Thanks for the replies. I'm very new and just looking to learn. I use Bodog so I just go with their lines.

[statnerds]

Stat,

Can you explain the concept of this type of betting to a noob?

What I gather is that I should be able to recognize bad #'s and bet them, correct? If so, how do I go about recognizing whether or not a number is bad?

forgot to say, Buy this Book, or get at your local library.

[statnerds]

Thanks for the replies. I'm very new and just looking to learn. I use Bodog so I just go with their lines.

And definitely get more books.

I use 5Dimes, BetJam, Carib, DSI and my local.

[Flight]

For a newb there is nothing wrong with Bodog as long as you know how to pick the sides. A reduced juice book saves you about 2% going from -110 to -105. However, a free half-point on the 3 is worth about 4.5% (I call it no-juice versus reduced juice).

If you aren't disciplined though you are right, a newb needs reduced juice to stay alive (will still drown at -105).

[yisman]

Bodog is pretty quick to move you off the square lineset.

I haven't been betting there long, and my bets have been mostly small, but I'm not getting the advertised lines anymore.

Washington was +4 (-120) for me, while SBR Lines showed a move to -110 that I never got.

Either they switched linesets on me or the SBR Lines feed is making up line moves, which I tend to doubt.

[Nicky Santoro]

Washington was +4 (-120)

look.. we are talking about betting bad #'s and look what just happened here? 7 days ago, this INDY game line opened at -3 and never moved for one second.. it closed at -3..

FINAL.. INDY 27-24


if you took that weak # of WASH +4, you win..

you see how important it is to get any edge you can.. these linesmakers are so money, it's not funny. And you want to go against these linesmakers??

This is why you can't beat em.. Their lines are so fukkin sharp. Just bet all the edges you see and mathematics will bring home the money. certainly not your handicapping..

[lakerboy]

look.. we are talking about betting bad #'s and look what just happened here? 7 days ago, this INDY game line opened at -3 and never moved for one second.. it closed at -3..

FINAL.. INDY 27-24


if you took that weak # of WASH +4, you win..

you see how important it is to get any edge you can.. these linesmakers are so money, it's not funny. And you want to go against these linesmakers??

This is why you can't beat em.. Their lines are so fukkin sharp. Just bet all the edges you see and mathematics will bring home the money. certainly not your handicapping..

Nicky you cant explain that to these guys, they dont get it. They want to be the hero for the day not for the long run.

I got Phils RL +180 at my book while pinny had +176 in the 7th inning live betting. Why did i take it? Cause it was a better number than pinny- aka off.

[pavyracer]

How did god know the Eagles will lose but revealed to Nicky in a dream they won? How did he know?

[statnerds]

Nicky you cant explain that to these guys, they dont get it. They want to be the hero for the day not for the long run.

I got Phils RL +180 at my book while pinny had +176 in the 7th inning live betting. Why did i take it? Cause it was a better number than pinny- aka off.

But some that do look into it might have bad timing and not see 60% winners (which you probably never will) and debunk it after 10 or 20 games. It takes hundreds, if not thousands, of plays for these edges to prove themselves. Even if people would just sit down with a calculator and figure the profit difference between winning 53% of games and 55% of games, it would improve their expectations and possibly performance.

And then we have the people opposed to volume betting as well.

[jjgold]

It is all a matter of when you bet the line, basically pot luck to get the best number of the day

I could just bet a game in AM at -4 and at night it goes to -6 and I got the best number but it was pure luck, hard to predict where line is going.

[SCRAGGS]

no one looks at the long run nicky, that's why they handicap

bingo, we have a bingo. I agree 100%. Most find the allure of fast cash
from a hot streak blinds the real goal of cash over time.

[TPowell]

Allow me to handle this one...

If the line is 3 everywhere, and we know that ~10% of the time the favorite wins these games by exactly 3 points, what effect does having +3.5 have in this long term?

any idiot knows if the line is 3 everywhere but 3.5 at 1 shop, you take the 3.5 but how often does a situation come up where only a couple books have different lines???

[ouman101]

any idiot knows if the line is 3 everywhere but 3.5 at 1 shop, you take the 3.5 but how often does a situation come up where only a couple books have different lines???

It happens all the time. Bodog on a consistent basis will give you an extra half point to a full point on the dog, because they have a lot of square/newb bettors.

[TPowell]

It happens all the time. Bodog on a consistent basis will give you an extra half point to a full point on the dog, because they have a lot of square/newb bettors.

isnt the juice like -120 though?

[Nicky Santoro]

isnt the juice like -120 though?

even at -120.. still a great bargain.

if line is 3 and you get +3.5 -120, you will be +ev.

[TPowell]

Nicky that is correct but unless it's straddling the 3 or 7, you can buy a half point and get the line to -120. Correct?

[Pauulzcappin]

My square book had Skins +3.5 -115 last night

took it in a heartbit

[ouman101]

isnt the juice like -120 though?

For some games yes, for a lot of them no. I've seen plenty of times where they will give you 3 1/2 or 7 1/2 for -110 or -115, where most if not all of the other books are 3 or 7. Plus, it seems like most books charge -130 to buy the extra half point. So even if it was -120, seems like slightly better value.

[TPowell]

my local is -125 on the 3 or 7 and -120 on everything else when it comes to buying points.

In theory, I should be buying the half at -125 if everyone else makes it -130 right?

[Nicky Santoro]

In theory, I should be buying the half at -125 if everyone else makes it -130 right?

no no no.. don't do that.. at -125, it becomes a -ev bet. you will lose your money.

[Nicky Santoro]

oh and also, regarding the line 3....

-122 is what you should aim for... anything more than this, you have a -ev bet. anything better is +ev.

+3.5 -125 is a -ev bet

+3.5 -120 is a +ev bet

+3.5 -122 is a dead even bet.. no adv for anyone.

[TPowell]

Nicky, I've made a few bets today. Will make thread later and let you grade my plays. Looks good so far, most have moved a half point

[Scorpion]

I just took o43 for tonight, I think I have an edge based on Sicky Santoros teachings

[TPowell]

what about under 44.5 at -110? Seems like a good bet to me

[Scorpion]

I handicapped the game over 43

[statnerds]

any idiot knows if the line is 3 everywhere but 3.5 at 1 shop, you take the 3.5 but how often does a situation come up where only a couple books have different lines???

That is the point. My local has a lot of squares that must back faves a lot, cause he consistently gives me 3.5

at


-110

[TPowell]

my local uses an online book now that matches VERY closely with BP

[statnerds]

my local uses an online book now that matches VERY closely with BP

That sucks. I found out from my buddy that this local grades all MLB Totals at -110 as well. Found that out with about 2 weeks to go in the season.

But I need to back off a little right now. Talked to my buddy this morning and he passed along word that the local is pissed at me and called me cocky. Which he didn't do when I was doing both losing and winning last season.

Got a bad feeling he is going to cut me off at some point.

Guess I have to lay off his bad lines or maybe just hit one or two a week for smaller amounts.

Got a huge fish on the hook here and definitely don't want to lose him.

[TPowell]

I would def say bet SMALL amounts. You have a good set up pal

[durito]

Nicky you cant explain that to these guys, they dont get it. They want to be the hero for the day not for the long run.

I got Phils RL +180 at my book while pinny had +176 in the 7th inning live betting. Why did i take it? Cause it was a better number than pinny- aka off.

That's not a +ev play if you assume pinnys line is efficient.

[lakerboy]

That's not a +ev play if you assume pinnys line is efficient.

Im not a numbers guy like you Durito but i believe in the pinny line( i know you dont at all times). I got a better number than pinny and it easily cashed. The fact that it went off the board one second after i bet it was telling for me while it was still at +176 at pinny.

[yisman]

lakerboy, you didn't beat the no vig line.

The Pinnacle line is sharp, sure, but if you're betting a +180 simply because it's +176 at Pinnacle, that's -EV long term.