ATTN: Nicky Santoro is Sharper than you

[lakerboy]

lakerboy, you didn't beat the no vig line.

The Pinnacle line is sharp, sure, but if you're betting a +180 simply because it's +176 at Pinnacle, that's -EV long term.

so far this year i have made over 500 wagers where i beat the pinny line by at least 1 cent. those wagers are hitting 54%. most of them are non vig bets.(55%)

[TPowell]

lakerboy, you didn't beat the no vig line.

The Pinnacle line is sharp, sure, but if you're betting a +180 simply because it's +176 at Pinnacle, that's -EV long term.

[yisman]

What are you confused about?

If you're betting blindly based on that and you're not beating the no vig Pinnacle line, that's probably a long term losing proposition.

For example, Pinnacle has higher vig on in play lines.

You'll see -178/+145 or something on in-play baseball lines. If you bet -170 at your book because it beats the Pinnacle -178, that's -EV.

In play or not in play, +180 over +176 is not beating the no-vig line.

[TPowell]

yisman, you just mean that Pinny doesn't always provide the best price right?

[TPowell]

like if BM is -170, Pinny is -175 and your local is -167, you should bet your local if it's a better price than almost all of the other books known to man

[Nicky Santoro]

like if BM is -170, Pinny is -175 and your local is -167, you should bet your local if it's a better price than almost all of the other books known to man

NO.. you'd still lose over the long haul..

based on your example.

Pinny -175/+160
BM -170/+150
Your local -167/+157


You bet -167, you have a -ev bet and you lose over long haul.

[TPowell]

I honestly dont understand, don't you want the lowest possible juice on your bet when you bet the chalk?

[yisman]

I honestly dont understand, don't you want the lowest possible juice on your bet when you bet the chalk?

First off, a better line doesn't mean lower juice. It just means a better line, and that applies to whether you're betting chalk or betting underdogs.

Anyway, lakerboy's example was blindly betting a line because it beats the Pinnacle line.

Pinnacle may be sharp, but it has vig as well.

If you've made up your mind to place a bet, then yes you should bet -167 instead of the other two.

But that's not the same as saying that blindly betting lines that barely beat the Pinnacle line is +EV, because it isn't.

[TPowell]

gotcha, just because it beats Pinny doesn't mean its the best line out there.

[Sam Odom]

The Old 'Pinny Lean' system...

I believe it works in the long run!

However

The long run is longer than you think

[lakerboy]

The Old 'Pinny Lean' system...

I believe it works in the long run!

However

The long run is longer than you think

Sam we are all in it for life.

[Sam Odom]

Sam we are all in it for life.

Yup

there is only one real cash-out

[Waz]

While I agree that getting the best number is MORE important than anything (especially when they're off from the sharp books), to say that no one can beat the books by handicapping is just not true. There are many documented handicappers (such as RAS) on the internet that consistently beat the closing line and win almost every season. Sure it's hard work and is very difficult, but it can be done if you invest the time. The bookmakers who put up the lines are human, and if you can outsmart them and work harder than they do, you can beat them. They make mistakes and you have to make them pay when they do. I think if you line shop and handicap the games, you get the best of both worlds. Sure, most of your edge comes in getting the best number, but it helps when you can spot an opener is off at Pinny, Greek or one of the other big guys.

[statnerds]

an efficient market makes it impossible, or near impossible, for anyone to beat the market consistently on a long term basis. I'm sure if we ask RAS, he or they would be concerned with the inevitable market correction. Also, they do their best work in the smaller market of NCAA Totals. the larger the market, the more efficient that market should be.

I think Dr Bob would be a good example of this. We know he destroyed it back in the day, but the last 4 years actually show a negative ROI. Does he do anything differently now than in the past? I would guess that he has, but I would be even more certain the market adjusted incorporating the same methods he once used to beat the market.

[jolmscheid]

Guys I'm confused now...

[jolmscheid]

Guys I'm confused now...I thought weak numbers meant betting lines that are better off than pinnys and matchbooks lines.....how come its -ev if you can get a line at -150 when pinny or matchbook is at -155? Or does weak numbers just mean betting spreads and totals that are different? Nicky and durito and statnerds please help me to clear this up! Thanks guys!

[Nicky Santoro]

Guys I'm confused now...I thought weak numbers meant betting lines that are better off than pinnys and matchbooks lines.....how come its -ev if you can get a line at -150 when pinny or matchbook is at -155? Or does weak numbers just mean betting spreads and totals that are different? Nicky and durito and statnerds please help me to clear this up! Thanks guys!

jolmer,

beating weak #'s don't mean just beat pinny or matchy. if line is -140/+130 and you bet -136, it's a -ev bet. you don't have to beat the line, you have to beat the no vig line.

if line is -105/-105.. you need to bet +101 either way to have a +ev bet. not just better than -105. that's the definition of beating the closer, not just beat the actual line by 2 cents.

[jolmscheid]

OH gotcha...thanks Nicky...so basically, one would have to BEAT Pinny's / Matchy's line by 5 or more cents for it to be considered a +EV bet on ATS and Totals?? What about Moneylines? Do you bet huge dogs or huge favs if you still can beat Pinny's / Matchy's vig?

I really want to try this but I just want to be exactly sure that I am doing the right thing....

Nicky, Durito, Stat, your'e guys' help would be appreciated please! Thanks!

[statnerds]

Nicky, Durito, your'e guys' help would be appreciated please! Thanks!

FYP sir

[Cap dat 4ss]

FYP sir

Ha, whatever Stat. You can def help some of us noobs out.

[jolmscheid]

Yes that would be helpful to get some insight guys...I guess I would just like to know how far off the line has to be, etc....thanks

[statnerds]

Today's lines

Mia +3.5 Biggest bet of the day
Mia Ov 40
Phi +3
Car +3
ST L +3.5
Atl Un 43.5 That one never had a chance

and for my second biggest play of the day

GB 2.5

the lesson isn't that I won, but I won again without capping these games at all, except the Mia Over.

As for the line being off, I find lines off by 1 or 1.5 sometimes at Carib, usually in my favor. That is mostly college football games. But also pay attention if there is a shaded side, think Nicky might have mentioned that somewhere above. When I bet the Packers about 15 minutes ago or so, 5Dimes had GB 3 +100 but I found it at DSI at +110. Yes sharp bettors, I know, 2.5.

I cannot stress enough finding a local that either gives you a free half point, keeps all his lines at -110, or both.

Like if you take the bets I made today with local and compared them to what 5Dimes had for the same line

Mia +3.5, -110 with my local -130 at 5D
Phi +3 -110 instead of -133
Car +3 -110 instead of -135
St L +3.5 -110 instead of -130
GB 2.5 -110 instead of -125

That last one isn't as strong as I would like. However, the others all had a FV Line around 125. so I could figure that to have a prob of 55.56% but paying for a play with a prob of 52.38%. A 3% edge long term.

Sides in baseball are hard cause seems too many books have 20 cent lines. I love 5Dimes nickel lines, but those end at 8 a.m.

Hopefully one of the guys sharper than me can weigh in on what they look for before they pull the trigger, actually, there was a thread like that started by Iceman, and I will try to find it.

Some really solid stuff in this thread right here

Iceman starts a sharp discussion about prices

[jolmscheid]

So when are you supposed to place your bets?? Do you place the bets whenever you have the edge against Pinny / Matchy? Let's say you have the edge in the middle of the day, do you take it? Or do you have to wait til just before the game starts???? Thanks

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

i-cut-myself-on-all-the-sharpness-in-this-thread.

[statnerds]

So when are you supposed to place your bets?? Do you place the bets whenever you have the edge against Pinny / Matchy? Let's say you have the edge in the middle of the day, do you take it? Or do you have to wait til just before the game starts???? Thanks

The goal of every bettor should be to beat the closing line.

[tbarney]

I guess I will ring in with a question because this thread has helped me quite a bit. Here is the scenario:

Miami is -3 at most shops; Cris has them at -2; Bodog has them at -4.

How do you know whether to lay the 2 at Cris or take the +4 at Bodog? What is going to lead you to making the decision?

Thanks in advance for the insight!!!

[Nicky Santoro]

I guess I will ring in with a question because this thread has helped me quite a bit. Here is the scenario:

Miami is -3 at most shops; Cris has them at -2; Bodog has them at -4.

How do you know whether to lay the 2 at Cris or take the +4 at Bodog? What is going to lead you to making the decision?

Thanks in advance for the insight!!!

You will do better if you take +4. here is why. 4 is more common than the 2. Lets just assume the 4 lands 4/100 games, and the 2 lands, 2/100 games.. here is how it will look over 100 games.

on -2, when line is 3.

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
2/100 will land on 2... PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
43/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-43-2 over 100 games on -2

______

on +4 when line is 3

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
4/100 will land on 4.. PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
41/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-41-4 over 100 games on +4.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You will do better if you take +4. here is why. 4 is more common than the 2. Lets just assume the 4 lands 4/100 games, and the 2 lands, 2/100 games.. here is how it will look over 100 games.

on -2, when line is 3.

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
2/100 will land on 2... PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
43/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-43-2 over 100 games on -2

______

on +4 when line is 3

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
4/100 will land on 4.. PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
41/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-41-4 over 100 games on +4.

Or you could middle with two +EV wagers, which is actually optimal with Nicky's numbers.

[tbarney]

You will do better if you take +4. here is why. 4 is more common than the 2. Lets just assume the 4 lands 4/100 games, and the 2 lands, 2/100 games.. here is how it will look over 100 games.

on -2, when line is 3.

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
2/100 will land on 2... PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
43/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-43-2 over 100 games on -2

______

on +4 when line is 3

10/100 will land on 3.. WIN
4/100 will land on 4.. PUSH
45/100 will win.. WIN
41/100 will lose.. LOSE

So you end up 55-41-4 over 100 games on +4.

Thanks Nicky...appreciate the help!!!

[tbarney]

I guess I'll ask one other question that I am struggling with:

How do you know when to jump on a line?

For instance, last night 5 Dimes had Boston (+1) when everyone else had Boston (-1). So, I take the +1 thinking that it is a weak number. I wake up this morning and everyone has Boston (+1.5) now.

My question is: What is the best way to tell where a line is moving? I have to believe that it is more than just blind luck. But, are there any helpful tips you have to know when to hold off on getting a weak number because it could become even weaker. Thanks Nicky!!!

[Scorpion]

Sicky Santoro, how do u feel about live betting?

Some posters think live betting is the crack cocaine os sportsbetting and only play the dogs

Some posters like Peep aka Pepe think live betting = heart attack, example:
Arizona -260, Superbowl ... 10 seconds later Santonio Holmes TD. PITT wins

[statnerds]

Sicky Santoro, how do u feel about live betting?

Some posters think live betting is the crack cocaine os sportsbetting and only play the dogs

Some posters like Peep aka Pepe think live betting = heart attack, example:
Arizona -260, Superbowl ... 10 seconds later Santonio Holmes TD. PITT wins

While I am no where near as sharp as any of the guys in here, I will offer my humble thoughts and approach toward live-betting.

I like focusing on the Total. I also like knowing, as everyone should, the % of opening drives a team scores or gets scored on. If you have two good defensive teams, barring turnovers, you most likely will see two punts to open the game. If we assume the market is efficient and the Closing Total is accurate, and we know the opening drive success or failure of each team and we also check the score in a first 6 minutes or whatever the prop is listed at and which way it is shaded, then we get an idea of how many points should be expected in the first 5:00, 7:30 and the first quarter.

For instance, if the 1st quarter is total is 10, a No Score in the first 6 minutes is -140 and both teams open with a punt, as happened on SNF with Minn at GB, why would the Total drop 5 points? If the game is proceeding exactly the way the oddsmakers assumed it would, why would they lower the Total, that the Market agreed was accurate, by more than a FG?

Another thing I have been playing with is taking the ML on short dogs, around 3 or 4. But before taking the ML I see if I can find a prop on both teams having the lead at some point. I'll take the dog ML before the game if the teams, in my mind or capping, are evenly matched I would expect the dog to get the lead at some point during the 60 minutes of football. Bet the pre-game fave ML Live-Bet when they fall behind and make the money. Of course you want to know, as I do, how many NFL teams lead a game wire to wire and how it changes compared to the point spread.

Completely basic and simple and lacking imagination I know. but I'm awfully dull.