Last year she paid $7.80. What do you think her odds will be in the classic this year?
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6/5 if Quality Road and Blame both go...3/5 if either drops out...also depends on Lookin at LuckyComment -
2-1 would be a bit generous, I think. Depending on the quality of the others who run, I think it might be as low as even money but probably not higher than 7-5.Comment -
i just hope she wins... i would hate to see her lose her last race.Comment -
Just wondering what the europeans have for us this year alot of good ones over there horses they sent over last year and didnt do much turning out to be real good this year over there and some good jockeys on fire over there like k. Fallon for oneComment -
very sad to say this but she probably won't win you should get GREAT value on other huge contenders because the pools will be masively polluted with public money on her if its clear she can't win in the race they may take her all the way out of it to avoid injury risk and if there are as many bridge jumpers as I think there will be the show pool could be the place to have your money. I will be betting against her hard but cheering for her even harder.Comment -
You can currently get 5/1 at Ladbrokes ... 7/2 @ most other UK bookies.
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I think 5-2 is a reasonable guess. I don't really see her going off much lower than that, given the large field and the presence of Quality Road, Blame, Lookin at Lucky, etc.
I'm rooting for her here but would also love to take a shot at the bridgejumpers - we'll see if that scenario pans out.Comment -
Quality Road, 3/1, Zenyatta 5/2Comment -
Let's start with these assumptions:
1.) Zenyatta, Quality Road, Blame, and Lucky all go to the gate for this race.
2.) The winner of the race is 80% likely to come from those 4 contenders.
3.) We rank Zenyatta as #1, followed by Q.R. and Blame tied for 2nd choice, then Lucky as the 4th choice.
Then we can make an 80% line, and can massage the percentages to see how the odds make sense for all 4 of these horses, and that will give us an idea of the fair odds on Zenyatta. For example, it wouldn't make sense for her to go off at, say, 3 to 5; that would make the others around 15-1, which won't happen.
Here are some scenarios based on the earlier assumptions:
If Zen is 1 to 1 (50%), then QR, Blame, and Lucky would have to combine to make the remaining 30% of our 80% line. We can say QR and Blame would be 12% each, and then Lucky is 6%. This makes the odds:
Zen: 1 to 1
QR: 7 to 1
Blame: 7 to 1
Lucky: 15 to 1
I don't see QR and Blame going off that high. Let's try 2 to 1 for Zenyatta:
Zen: 2 to 1
QR: 9 to 2
Blame: 9 to 2
Lucky: 10 to 1
That's not too bad, but I think QR and Blame will go a little lower than 9-2:
Zen: 5 to 2
QR: 4 to 1
Blame: 4 to 1
Lucky: 7 to 1
I think that sounds pretty good. You can keep moving the percentages around until it makes sense for all four of these. If the number of contenders change, or a couple of these horses don't race, then obviously it changes the math and Zenyatta will be a much shorter price.Comment -
this horse may not like real dirt. also a mare usually can't beat 3yr old colts this time of year. a shame but she's up against it. i think she won't run to protect record. but if she does and probably will she will be overbet. blame is a stiff but looking at lucky may develop at the right time to blow by before she gets cranked up.Comment -
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you all take it as low as possible so i can win big money when she losesComment -
She only ran twice out of 19 times on dirt surely if she liked dirt better Sherriffs would have ran her more on it.Her style is ideal for synthetic no way dirt is her preferred surface.Comment -
I will be betting against her, so I hope she is 6/5. Against the boys again, she will not get there.Comment -
I will say she goes off at 3/5Comment -
Besides the 2 races on the dirt at Oaklawn, they have kept Zenyatta in California. Don't know why they would do this unless they felt dirt was not her best surface. Still she has not been beaten. If she wins the Classic, it will remove any questions about Zenyatta's greatness.Comment -
I think she'll be 5/2 at post time. A lot of talk about how all the fan money will come on on her, but that money comes in increments of $2. The big money will be elsewhere at those odds.
I know Quality Road is listed at 7-1 at some places, which I think is crazy. It's certainly not his ideal distance, but he is proven at 9f, and to get the fastest animal in the race at those odds just feels like a huge overlay....
Blame is a tough read. His loss this last week either gives you better odds, or signals that his best running is behind him this year.
Looking at Lucky may have indeed arrived and has more room for improvement as a late 3yo. I suspect he may end up taking a lot of money.Comment -
a lot people in this thread do not understand horse racingComment -
Richard's Kid could be a very dangerous foe to keep an eye on in this year's Breeders Cup Classic. He's in terrific form right now. Really looks fine fetal. Coming into Churchill Downs off of back to back G1 victories in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Goodwood Stakes at Hollywood Park. The only real question mark for Richard's Kid concerning the Classic is how he'll travel over the conventional dirt surface at Churchill Downs? It's been quite sometime since Richard's Kid has seen a real dirt track back east. He ran a well beaten 6th to Macho Again in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana in March, 2009. Then finished 4th, not beaten that badly, by No Advantage in the William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico in May, 2009. So it's been at least a year and a half since Richard's Kid has ran in a race over conventional dirt.Comment -
I'll say it again! The Classic has turned to a farce, considering the garbage that races for that big money. Last year's was a joke, where are any of those horses now! Racing has turned to shit for the top class. Zenyatta will win because she's the best of the rest now. Their hasn't been a decent Classic field for years, the undercard races are better.Comment -
Agree that Richards Kid is going good now and may very well simply be a much better horse than his last shot at dirt, but you need a big price to make that jump. I think he's a synthetic specialist, but that's just my opinion. The other troubling thing is that he ran poorly in the BC last year off to big efforts similar to his pattern this year. He paired, then was off.Comment -
Zen's 2008 Apple Blossom was really good, and IMO perhaps her best beating Ginger Punch. This year was a joke of a field.
Still, it's a different ballgame this year. Last year's BC Classic field had several names that were "fish out of water" . Gio Ponti and Rip Van Winkle were turf horses. Summer Bird was a dirt horse who suffered the same fate Curlin did when he tried the plastic. The two questions on Zen this year are 1. Can she get the trip from the back if the speed doesn't back up on the turn like it does on synth, and 2. Is she fast enough to run down the class stalkers if they don't go too fast? She is certainly the best suited for 10f of the US horses, but that doesn't mean she can run fast enough to catch Quality Road if he gets it soft and keeps going.Comment -
this
The reason its such a big difference is that they go much faster on the front end on dirt.She is going to be further back than she has ever been leaving her too much ground to make up IMO.She usually has to close 6 or 7 lengths ,here its going to be 12-13.This field is going to be a little bit tougher than the Apple Blossom also.It would be great for the sport if she won I just don't see it happening.Comment -
1) I just don't have ANY idea what Zenyatta's $2 win price in November would be. I could see odds-on, and I could see 5/2. I'm going to take the near-middle and say 9/5 as a very hazy guess. As a future wager, I'm taking no less than 5/2 due to knowing in the BC, anything can happen, and I want to try for a certain level of payoff as a collective in my total wagers.
2) The BC Classic isn't a wise bridge-jump race. Personally, I see no race as a wise bridge-jump unless you're someone at a track with a $2.20 minumum and you know something. Even then, the risk of incident outweighs the reward and I still think it unwise, but I grant it moves into an area where some find appeal. I think it's a terrible way to make 10c or 20c on your deuce. You can net similar returns with correct, relatively easy to identify short-term investments in the market.
2a) People are forgetting Zenyatta may lose this race before the gate opens or due to technical issues. There's always the possibility of jockey error, dropped whips, irons failing, a quick, undetected or injury at the gate, such as a head crash into the door. Little stuff pre-race can be the difference between 1st and 5th. Zenyatta could get boxed in badly. This stuff happens to almost every horse over time.
3) I had an opinion on this race for future book action in my blog a while ago. I do believe Zenyatta wins this race. I have no reason to think that in a completely clean, open race with a distance of > 1 mile, she loses.
3a) The point is valid about the distance she has to close. It will be a little greater, yet I do not believe that we're seeing a 21.4 to 22.2 opening quarter in the BC classic. There's a legitimate chance someone's going to try to walk the 1st Q in an act of deseperation against Zenyatta. Jockeys occaisionally get away with this, but too often, I think they need reminding that they're not on a sulky and that what works at Maywood doesn't work in the saddle. This is horse racing's equivalent of the occaisional goof in MLB that slides into 1st base. Also, early blazing fractions are tantamount to suicide with Zenyatta involved. The greater risk is that timing is thrown off and she's not going to want to close in from 10 out at a place not her home track. Horses like their familiarity and routine. This is Zenyatta's.
The key to this race is that one horse could successfully put this field into a deep sleep and also whether there will be traffic issues. The problem with races featuring a five-star standout horse is that people forget to handicap the other runners as effectively. Taking "free squares" means too often that people quit looking for adjoining opportunities or reviewing information at the level they would have in another event without that standout. I'm going to be reviewing video of the gate and racing mannerisms of all the horses entering the BC Classic. A horse can be great, rack up lots of success, and still be difficult or risky in racing. Those points matter.
Zenyatta wins this and she's clearly heading into the top 3-5 thoroughbreds of all time. I expect and hope she can.Comment -
evenComment -
Probably 2-1 but Blame loves Churchill which figures for somethingComment
