It was just announced ml is 8/5
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It seems like Lucky wanted to draw the outside. Every race I've seen him run he either gets stuck on the rail and boxed in, or gets to the outside and dominates. Post 1 in the Derby was killer, it seems like that would be so much worse than being #12.Originally posted by mikemcaComment -
Morning line odds are:
Zenyatta 8-5
Blame 9-2
Quality Road 5-1
Looking at Lucky 6-1
I can't see Zenyatta going off that low at post time.Comment -
Originally posted by klinkman
Ya the outside is fine for lucky its not like hes going to the frontComment -
Complete Morning Line Odds here:
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I'm not sure the ML has much substance in this race as a lot of people already had their minds made up. By Friday night Zenyatta could be 3/5 or 4-1 depending on the action Lucky/QR get. I dont think Quality Road is going to like the rail.Comment -
I'm not sure it has much substance in any race ... its generally the opinion of some guy that has briefly looked over the form and took a half-assed guess .... much the same as my own personal "lines" that I use to look for value.Originally posted by madmaxxComment -
Mike Battaglia is an idiot for making her 8/5 ml. Glad I already have $400 on her locked in at 7/2. Was gonna bet more the day of the race but don't want to unload on a horse that who knows what her odds will be.... Zenyatta already cooled the bad in last year's Classic anyway.
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overbet at 2.10-1. all kinds of sentiment money going to land on this ancient mare. some 3 yr old colt will win this.Comment -
Well in a typical race a lot of inexperienced bettors will use the ML as a guide. Lets say you have a horse that is 0-20 at the distance/class level losing by an average of 20 lengths, the ML setter at Del Mar decides to play a joke and set an 8/5 ML on this horse. You'd be surprised at how much action the horse gets just because of the morning line.Originally posted by jwComment -
Exactly my point. 5-2 ml and she prob goes off at 5-2. 8-5 ml and she prob now goes off at between 8-5 and 2-1. I think someone already posted here that drf had projected her to go off at 3-1 at post.Originally posted by madmaxxComment -
I locked her in @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes a couple of weeks ago - at that price I like her .. anywhere 3/1 or below I'm not so hot on her .. I still think Haynesfield is good value at 12/1 ....Comment -
Anyone have past performances on the classic yet? the DRF ones?Comment -
Haynesfield will probably be around 30/1Originally posted by jwComment -
I think I'll get around 5/1 for a top 3 place on Betfair on the day .... will be going 20% win 80% place (1st 2nd 3rd) on the day.Originally posted by madmaxx
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Originally posted by helicopter23Comment -
just my opinion but i think she goes off horrendously low odds in the neighborhood of 4/5 for the simple fact that every woman at the track, off track otb, bar and nursing home is going to want to lay something down on her just to so if she wins they can brag about how girls are the best, not to mention all of the boyfriends that will have their girlfriends badgering them to bet that horse for them, and reluctantly even if they go to the window to bet their own hunch they will have to come back with a ticket on her as well to keep things peachy. As well as the fact like triple crown hopefuls going to belmont, ie Big Brown, there will be that souvenir issue where people buy masses of $2 win tickets on her in hopes that she wins and down the road can sell them for more than the 3 and change it will pay now for going a perfect 20-20. So imo she goes off below odds on totally neglecting who she is even running against which is ridiculous from a gambers prospective in this spot.Comment -
It will be interesting. I will be placing pick 4's as usual. Hopefully I get one this time on a big card.Comment
