look ahead games, tough losses, death of a player or someone close to the team, or any number of things. ive got an nba system, that i have to do more research on, thats 100% psychological.
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never did really. its hard to determine if something will be a distraction or a motivation. so i stayed away completely just so i would never lean either way and make the decision i felt was rightComment -
what is your nba system mofo? I need a system for ncaa right now its just a mix of gut stats reading up on reports or inside stuff or whatever. we need to work as a team yeeshComment -
Yes, I factor in stuff such as letdown spots, look-aheads and rivalry games where the dogs could play over their heads.Comment -
my problem is dealing with MY psych factors - I try not to let them effect my bets , but they doComment -
NBA regular season is all about motivation. Three layers:
1) the motivational stages of the regular season as a whole. I use five stages, plus the playoffs, each with their own character. Right now, until the ASB, we're in stage 3; the long midseason stretch, to which teams respond differently.
2) the motivational long term perspective of an individual team. Important to understand where a team sees itself and where it wants to go (over the whole season).
Example: Dallas. Lost unnecessarily to Miami in NBA finals, next season plays with a vengeance, and accumulates best regular season record, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by GS. This season? They basically took the first couple of months of. It's all related. If you understand the connections you have the key to the team.
Is PHX playing with the same focus during the regular season as in past years? No. Why not? They have nothing to prove (until playoffs). Result: motivational fluctuations. Look for: moment when they're ready to kick it into next gear. Etc.
3) the motivational short term perspective; the influence from latest game, or last few games, as reflected by comments from coaches and key players. Factor in upcoming game. Fatigue, last game road trip, first game home after road trip, etc. The basic angles. Those have to be part of your thinking, something you can immediately tap into (as opposed to a checklist that is not part of your thinking).
Weigh 3 against 2, and 2 against 1.Comment -
Remember the Broad street bullies Philadelphia Flyers. They didnt have a ton of skill, but they really didnt need to. You know you were going to be banged up after playing them.Comment -
i have recently started to do it more and more and it sbeen the most sure fire winning strategy i have yet to try
look aheads and coming off tremendous wins /comebacks or down to the wire losses vs a superior teamComment -
I always try to put a psychological factor into my capping!
But sometimes i end up going overboard
and start trying to outthink myself!
Sometimes, less is more!
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That's one of the most important factors in capping imo. Sometimes I have trouble figuring out if certain teams will be "up" for the game.Comment -
Before I click the mouse to place any bet, I mull all the psychological variables over.I don't keep a list of things to make me feel good or bad about winning a bet on a team but certain things do come up like if a team either is leaving for a long road trip or coming home from a road trip and what goes on at home.I swear when teams come home from a road trip at the beginning of the month, the PMS factor comes into play where the married guys perform like crap because the old lady was ragging on them the night before.Then if they come home in mid cycle,the guys are screwing too much and can't perform worth shit at home for a couple games.
Then teams from the north that have been playing a long stretch in the north seem to do well if they hit warm climates the first couple games on a road trip.
On SBR the paid adveritising touts always mention if a team has the flu and usually they suck for 10 days but tend to really play well about 2 weeks later.That's how it works with me where I feel like shit that week and 10 days later I feel like a new man.
On holidays or all star breaks, the teams finishing up before the break at home seem to always play well while the road team seems to just show up and are waiting to get home.
I think it's more a thing of cycles than it is psychology.Even horses hold their form better or worse due to cycles in weather,full moon's,no moon's, and being horny etc.
When the Canadian Football League CFL expanded into the USA with a few teams for a couple years they had a team in Vegas.Now there is one situation where if a home team is disciplined and stays away from the bright lights,they might have an advantage in that the other team might be distracted thinking too much what they will do after the game.Either that or the guys had too much fun the night before or even ate too much raunchy buffet food or hit hot weather that made the food upset their tummy.Most people get sick when they take Vegas trips.
I think Hawaii football has an advantage in that visiting teams have too many distractions being in paradise for the first time and going gaga over it, as well as jet lag etc.Comment -
Psych / motivation is a must to be successful. The best capper in the world will be more likely a major in psych.Comment -
I do................when one is obvious and I can translate it to a f"avorable". to me. A lot of times, tho, I just "no play" it, as I like constants when I wager and many time the psych things are a variable.Comment -
I use it alot but more as a complement to my numbers..
Ill use the numbers I make on the games. I have a scale that I bet a certain amount when MY number is off the posted line.
Small
Medium
Large
Xtra Large
After that Ill add in the psychological shit which could be anything from death to look-aheads. Whole lotta things. Ill use these and push the plays based on how many are in favor of a certain team.
If I have a medium play and can add a few phsycological factors it may become a large or xtra large so i would bet more.
Conversely, if there are factors in disagreement with my current play off the numbers I may just stay off the game.Comment -
I look at regional rivalries. Some teams play their regional rivals very very tough and could give a shit about anyone else. Cincinnati is this way.Comment -
More in college than the pros.
But in the NCAA Tournament in March, not that much. Because all teams are in it, all with at least a theorectical equal chance, no one is sulking (as sometimes happens in the bowl games, teams mad they didn't get a better one).
Some college roundball coaches won't play that hard in Round One if they're a #1 seed. Coach K is well-known for semi-resting his troops vs a weak opponent if he has a #1 (which he won't this year).Comment
