Betting against the public: Give me YOUR reason/explanation

Domer · 09-10-10, 09:39 PM

75 to 85 percent? Dude...

ACCBlitz · 09-10-10, 09:41 PM

Just goin' off what I've read various places. Correct it if it's wrong, don't just question me

Stealinhome · 09-10-10, 09:45 PM

You might want to check out the think tank. Lots of good info on this sort of thing.

dwaechte · 09-10-10, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Just goin' off what I've read various places. Correct it if it's wrong, don't just question me

The general public loses about 50% of their spread bets.

k13 · 09-10-10, 09:50 PM

It depends on the situation.

I prefer on betting against public perception not against the public always.

"last week" is what people always remember.

Shonner · 09-10-10, 09:53 PM

Well there are a few reasons by people bet against the public...

1) There's a general feeling that "the book always wins" so naturally it feels good to be on the book's side. They view the public as "suckers".
2) People view these as "trap games" and the book is trying to get public action on one side, as in "how can they only be favored by 3??"
3) As far as I am concerned, the only true reason to bet against the public is because the line moved and you feel there is value. The fact of the matter is that the book sets the line and the public changes it. If the book sets the line at Miami -8 and the public hits Miami hard, it could be -11 or more by the end of the week. That is a huge line change - but the question is - is Miami truly an 11 point favorite? Some argue that the +11 is value because the "true" line is 8, others argue that the public corrected a "weak" line and the true line is 11...all opinion.

Personally, I think if you track big "public" plays throughout football season they should be right around 50% :-)

Ace_of_Spades · 09-10-10, 09:54 PM

Betting against the public doesn't always workout.

d2bets · 09-10-10, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

The more I get into sports betting (I mainly stick with College football), I find myself still confused with the logic behind betting against the public.

I understand the general public loses anywhere from 75%-85% of their bets, so that I get.

But exactly how do you utilize betting against them?

Take Georgia Tech this week. We'll pretend the -7 line didn't come out 2 weeks ago. After the BState/VTech game, the line was out at -13. It went up to -14 and the public is pounding Kansas +14.

Where is the logic there?

Before I even saw a line, I would have said GT by at least 2 TD's.

Just trying to grasp the concept and strategy.

Throwin' points your way for an actual intelligent, helpful response

99.99% of those who bet spreads against WA lines over a long period of time is going to win between 45-55%. Nothing is 75-85%. Pure fantasy.

ACCBlitz · 09-10-10, 09:55 PM

I hover in the NCAA forum. There have been NUMEROUS discussions back and forth on the GT/Kansas game. The line I kept reading was "obviously the public is on GT, that's why it went up 1 point. I'm taking Kansas".

Sorry but that sounds asinine to me to bet on a team simply based on the fact that the public is betting the favorite. That's basically not even analyzing the teams or anything, just going against what others do.

ACCBlitz · 09-10-10, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

99.99% of those who bet spreads against WA lines over a long period of time is going to win between 45-55%. Nothing is 75-85%. Pure Fantasy.

Maybe I'm off with that figure. I could have sworn I read something about 75% of gamblers are losers. Maybe that was including poker, casino, etc as well.

RudyRuetigger · 09-10-10, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Maybe I'm off with that figure. I could have sworn I read something about 75% of gamblers are losers. Maybe that was including poker, casino, etc as well.

'

like 98% are losers mainly bc of money management. on a given game its between 45-55 like d2bets said

k13 · 09-10-10, 10:03 PM

Here's how it follows.

Niners are playing great, Almost 3-0 after a tough loss to minny, they blow out St Louis 35-0.

Now they are playing Atlanta on grass at home, Atlanta gets destroyed by NE the previous week. SF is only -3, it drops even lower, omg SF is free money.

I'm a big Niners fan, I Unloaded on Atl ML "three" times.

Next Atlanta win again, looking like a good time, now playing Dallas, Dallas lost to Denver and barely beat pathetic KC. Omg, Atlanta getting points, public loving a road dog. Even if they don't win they should cover right.....

Next we have the amazing Packers on a 5 games winning streak against the crappy Steelers who can't even beat the browns or raiders. Public loving the Packers, when the public gives up on the Steelers, you know the rest of the Story......

Its the same thing every year.

Lets not forget the Packers Playoff game, right after killing the Cards the previous game.

d2bets · 09-10-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Maybe I'm off with that figure. I could have sworn I read something about 75% of gamblers are losers. Maybe that was including poker, casino, etc as well.

Now that is a completely different thing. Hell, probably 99% are losers. But those 99% don't lose 75-85% of their bets. They lose like 50-52% of their bets. More than enough to bury them.

Shonner · 09-10-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Maybe I'm off with that figure. I could have sworn I read something about 75% of gamblers are losers. Maybe that was including poker, casino, etc as well.

You are not comparing apples to apples.

Nearly all bettors are losers, but many still hit 50% of their bets because of poor money mgt.

Example:

Bet #1: Risking $110 to win $100 -- WIN.

Bet #2: Bettor risks $210, loses.

The better is down $110 but went 1-1, and is hitting 50%.

Simple.