My first experience backing someone with Math Question profitablity

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  • stakebook
    SBR Rookie
    • 08-29-10
    • 42

    #1
    My first experience backing someone with Math Question profitablity
    Starting backing MastermindJR

    Well today I starting backing someone by the name of MastermindJR and overall I could say it went relatively well. I started off with transfering him $5, then proceded to send $5 more @ 10% juice when he lost the initial transfer.

    He lost the $10 dollars and wanted a dollar transfer, so I said @ 15% and he can owe me the $10.50 + $1.15

    $11.65.

    After he lost again, He asked for $3.30 so I came to 12.0833% on $3.30 roughly $3.69875.

    Had I starting losing my mind?
    Someone owing me for 3 money installments

    was I actually angling myself into shipping another $3.30??

    Already having lend out 3 consecutive transfer I started to feel weary, like he's going to maximize his free money hits today and never really come to a conclusion about the payment he originally agreed upon.



    11.65+ $3.70 was about $15 dollars which sounds insignificant, buts its more fundamental that this is my bankroll im not going to just ship degen off in Gypsy land

    Being the foosball fish I am, I decided to put it through for @$3.70

    down $15.35 which was like half of my roll and before you know it I got back home with a $10 dollar transfer sent then he send me $5.65 when I msg'ed him on facebook

    So was it worth it? I originally loaned out 5, then started making juice on loans.

    $5 @ $5.50 (10%) $1 @ $1.15 (15%) and $3.30 @ $3.70 (12%)

    along with the extra $.30 he included in his transfer back,
    I risked $14.30 to make $1.35

    Now my question is if im risking $14.30 to win $1.35 What is the break even percentage for me to make this trade profitable or neutral EV??


    **** My bankroll started @ $10 dollars 2 days ago online and i've been playing on full tilt poker under the name of Zeljko Gajic. I'm also on 2+2 forums under the name qpdumke ****


    Sorry if it was tl;dr


    Thanks
  • DeluxeLiner
    SBR MVP
    • 01-29-08
    • 4132

    #2
    I'd say you'd need to get paid back about 92% of the time in order to break even for a 14.30 loan with a payback of 1.35. Probably not a good idea if you don't personally know the guy even though we are talking about pennies here.
    Comment
    • stakebook
      SBR Rookie
      • 08-29-10
      • 42

      #3
      yep, working the math backwards I think I am going to have to solve this for my personal satisfaction. @ 92% basically implying 8/100 or something 1.35/ 14.30 0.0944055944055944

      Meaning that uhhhhhhhhhhh lol im ******* drunk
      Comment
      • stakebook
        SBR Rookie
        • 08-29-10
        • 42

        #4
        1.35 / 15.65 = 0.0862619808306709

        So im risking 1.35 to make 14.30 so then it has to work about lol is this right
        Comment
        • DeluxeLiner
          SBR MVP
          • 01-29-08
          • 4132

          #5
          14.3 to win 1.35 is about -1100 in American Odds...I then plugged that into http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Too...Converter.aspx and got about 92% for the implied probablility
          Comment
          • DeluxeLiner
            SBR MVP
            • 01-29-08
            • 4132

            #6
            Actually put this 1.35/14.3 or .0944 and plug that into Malay Odds...you will actually get -1059 or 91.37% for implied probablity
            Comment
            • stakebook
              SBR Rookie
              • 08-29-10
              • 42

              #7
              Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
              Actually put this 1.35/14.3 or .0944 and plug that into Malay odds...you will actually get -1059 or 91.37% for implied probablity

              +1

              Thanks, good looking
              Comment
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