What would be a good % of when to fade public

[chandler1981]

What would be a number(percentage wise) on when it is best to fade the public? I usually only see value in doing this when the public is on the favorite. For example, is it better to fade the public on example A or B?

A) Team A -3 at home vs. Team B. Public is 75% on Team A

B) Team X -3 at home vs. Team Z. Public is 90% on team X

Is there a % when it is good to go with the public? Or is it always safer to fade their play?

Any insight would be greatly appreciated. I want to use this info along with my handicapping to help decide to pass or play games and also for determinig the ammount to bet.

[accuscoresucks]

although im not a fan of this method
fade the public when the fav is in the 50%s to low low 60%s i suppose waiting till the last minute would be the way to go as the points mostly move to dogs fav giving you that edge.


i personally stay away from this method but none the less is does work

[BigBollocks]

You're a relatively new poster, and every new poster discovers this and many other methods which they believe are unique and the innovative new way to beat books. It isn't. I won't berate you or call you an idiot for asking, but we see this question in several different forms 20X a year from other young guys looking for a way to beat the system with no work.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no "number percentage wise against the public" that guarantees success. If you want to win longterm if you have to put in the hours, get the best number, practice tremendous money management, and have access to changing information relatively quickly. Even then you'll have difficult months. Every newcomer dreams of an easy way to beat this game without work, and it just doesn't exist. You might have great short run stretches using any method you believe you are the first to have thought of (and trust me you aren't), but this game is a grind that is not as exotic as you might think if you're thinking of quitting your day job. GL...

[chandler1981]

You're a relatively new poster, and every new poster discovers this and many other methods which they believe are unique and the innovative new way to beat books. It isn't. I won't berate you or call you an idiot for asking, but we see this question in several different forms 20X a year from other young guys looking for a way to beat the system with no work.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no "number percentage wise against the public" that guarantees success. If you want to win longterm if you have to put in the hours, get the best number, practice tremendous money management, and have access to changing information relatively quickly. Even then you'll have difficult months. Every newcomer dreams of an easy way to beat this game without work, and it just doesn't exist. You might have great short run stretches using any method you believe you are the first to have thought of (and trust me you aren't), but this game is a grind that is not as exotic as you might think if you're thinking of quitting your day job. GL...

Thanks but I hate that you wasted that much time typing your response. I am not using this as a method of beating the books. GO REREAD MY ORIGINAL POST. "Any insight would be greatly appreciated. I want to use this info along with my handicapping to help decide to pass or play games and also for determinig the ammount to bet." Just because I am newer to SBR doesnt mean I am new to gambling but I am just trying to get more angles. And, I never mentioned quitting my day job to gamle. It is a hobby of mine. My family owns a funeral home where I am very happy working, and I have made more investing than you have probably even lost gambling. I'm not trying to be an ass but your "greater than thou" answer struck me wrong. Sorry.

[SBR Lou]

I'm not trying to be an ass but your "greater than thou" answer struck me wrong.

He was only trying to be helpful and answer your initial question, think you may have jumped the gun in your reaction.

[chandler1981]

He was only trying to be helpful and answer your initial question, think you may have jumped the gun in your reaction.

Yea, you are probably right. I do appreciate your answer Big, but he assumed I was planning to beat the books by fading the public. I want to use this after all my research is done. After I set my line. At the very end, I think it may be helpful to look at what the public is doing. You should know, public bets favorites and overs. And they lose. That's all.

[Checkerboard]

In $ amounts wagered, where does one get the public info to fade from?

I know a few sources for # of wagers on each side made by the public, but how do you find out how much $ the public's put on each side?

I'm wondering this, because isn't it the dollar amount difference that would theoretically have the book move the line?

eg. source indicates 66 of 99 wagers made have been on team A, but what if 90% of these team A backers are small unit-size wagerers and the 'minority' backing team B are all dime players?

[BigBollocks]

It's all good. There's not a public % number that wins at a substantial rate more than any other. That's a better/shorter response.

When I used to track the #s there would be month long periods where everything 80% and higher would win at an alarming rate, but everything from 60-80% would lose. There's no rhyme or reason to any of it short-term. As for long-term you'll go slightly above 50% at "public" plays of 60% or higher, but it's not substantial enough to blindly play and profit if you've got juice of say -102 or higher. It's a roughly even distribution for intervals above 60%. GL...

[BigBollocks]

In $ amounts wagered, where does one get the public info to fade from?

I know a few sources for # of wagers on each side made by the public, but how do you find out how much $ the public's put on each side?

I'm wondering this, because isn't it the dollar amount difference that would theoretically have the book move the line?

eg. source indicates 66 of 99 wagers made have been on team A, but what if 90% of these team A backers are small unit-size wagerers and the 'minority' backing team B are all dime players?

Yes, and you are 100% right. My buddies working in Vegas (when Vegas was worth a damn sportsbook-wise) used to often root heavy for teams that were "public" teams because they were heavy on the other side in dollar amounts. It was always the books against the sharps, make no mistake about it. John Q will lose his money in the end no matter what.

[chandler1981]

Thanks Big. You info is very much appreciated.

[BigBollocks]

Thanks Big. You info is very much appreciated.

Cheers Chandler, always nice to have another student of the game around here (we're always learning). I'll PM you an interesting deviation in there shortly (which you're probably already well aware of). GL this week...

[LT Profits]

There are some sport-specific articles on this subject at

https://www.sportsinsights.com

Just check the "Bet Against the Public" section.

While some of the stuff is intersting, I for one am skeptical that stuff like this could stand up long term, but what the fock do I know!

[LT Profits]

In $ amounts wagered, where does one get the public info to fade from?

I know a few sources for # of wagers on each side made by the public, but how do you find out how much $ the public's put on each side?

I'm wondering this, because isn't it the dollar amount difference that would theoretically have the book move the line?

eg. source indicates 66 of 99 wagers made have been on team A, but what if 90% of these team A backers are small unit-size wagerers and the 'minority' backing team B are all dime players?

Reverse line movement is an excellent indicator in this regard. If over 60% of the bets are on the favorite yet the line goes down, you can be fairly certain the sharps are on the dog.

Even here though, you can't just bet the dogs blindly for two reasons:

1 - Sharps are not always sharp
2 - Line may have lost value after the movement

[BigBollocks]

There are some sport-specific articles on this subject at

https://www.sportsinsights.com

Just check the "Bet Against the Public" section.

While some of the stuff is intersting, I for one am skeptical that stuff like this could stand up long term, but what the fock do I know!

They've got the best way to make money. They just use small samples and sell those percentages to suckers looking for another "system" to beat the book. I still tell the story about two guys in the Stardust going on and on about their newly conceived concept of "fading the public" 20 years ago, and they really thought they were the first to think of it then lol!

Only play home dogs, only play dogs of +10 or more, always play Northern teams vs. Florida teams in cold weather, fade "the public", play road favorites of 3 or less, always bet white QBs vs. black ones, play numbers that fall on the same day as your birthday, play majority Hispanic teams in the heat, yada, yada, yada. Every sucker's got a system, and it all hits roughly 50%. I would generally just stay silent, but you wouldn't believe the stupid shit you hear when living in Vegas. And let that tourist's plays go 3-0 or so that day, and they thought they'd found the holy grail lol. If only the game were so easy...

[LT Profits]

Actually Bollocks, the articles are free for everyone to read. So if someone had the inclination (or had no life), they could try it themselves without buying anything.

That has nothing to do with the point of your post however. Now where can I find information on rosters broken down by nationality?