i know a lot poeple bet on intuition...including me. just wondering who here use strickly stats? for example, in NBA you look at their FG%, ATS, FT%, and bet purely base on stats alone.
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I use the personal of each teamComment -
People who use stats alone are pretty whacked, lets be honest.
The books have, and use, all of these stats and more..you cant beat them at that game. Using other factors sensibly with stats and you have a chance.Comment -
Its the only way to cap baseball. Stats and stats alone. There is a ton of other stuff, but lurkers may take advantage. God knows the regulars are deluded enough to ignore it.Comment -
I bet mainly on feel and hunches maybe that is why I loseComment -
I bet only on stats, MY STATS
On every american sports (NFL, NBA, College fbl and bbl, WNBA, Arena, CFL, NHL (the only I have some problem), MLB
But my stats are changing year by year, because I know books have maths better than me...Comment -
I use trends for NCAAB and intuition for NFL. I use trends for NCAAF and intuition for NCAAF moneyline big dog plays.
I make a lot of halftime bets and I take any halftime bet where the halftime spread is equal to or greater than the game spread. This happens in both NBA and NCAAB more often than you would think. The way I look at it, if I liked a team for the game for +8 I surely like them for +16 (take the second half spread and mulitply it by 2 for an equivalent game spread). For favorites I take any favorite where the half time spread is equal to or less than the game spread divided by 2. For example yesterday one of my college hoops teams was -12 for the game, I got them at -3 for the second half. LOL
For NFL I take any first or fourth quarter total on the OVER if the total is 7 or less. This has been free money all year.
I play lots of other trends, these are just a few.Comment -
I combine stats with team and player emotions. Each game has a different story to it.Comment -
What else am supposed to use, a weegie board? I don't see how intuition can possibly work out long term.
I do use trends, but they are just a bit more complicated than curious's bet on every home favorite from 0 to -10.Comment -
years ago I downloaded all americans sports results and odds, along 10 years. I applied excel, access and, finally, mathlab and so I noticed very intersting "rules". Actually, when a new season is starting, I check for a while if "my rules" are working well: if OK, no problem, otherwise I can change.
For example, till 2/3 years ago, on NBA I wagered on a favorite home team when handicap was between -4/-6, on a underdog home team when handicap was >=+5, on an underdog away team when handicap was between +0/+3.5.
And so on....Comment -
I combine a bunch of things, but in the end, a wager has to pass a "gut check" for me to pull the trigger.Comment -
All numbers to me. There is a longterm advantage to keeping very precise records for each angle. In sports betting I have about two years left of record keeping (NFL and NBA only, to save time). Then I'll 'retire' (from sports) by exclusively playing the very best angles (Z-factors >3) with precise winning expectations. No way I'm dedicating the rest of my life to sports.
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