Question for Durito, Nicky and other VALUE players

[Iceman]

Say Boston is -115/+108 over Texas at Pinnacle.

What is your strike price on betting Boston to pull the trigger and or betting Texas also.

What price would you need to bet on either team to make the play?

I have my answer how I handle it but want to hear yours. You both talked about some extremely high volume the other day and I thouhght I bet a lot of games. I was wondering if I maybe needed to "open" some things up a bit and loose the reins. Also question is for other off line players also who bet this way.


Thanks guys!!

[Nicky Santoro]

if pinny closes at -115/+108, then the no vig line is very close to -111... now anything you get better than -111 is a +ev bet.. if you can get -106, you are doing great. if you can do this on most of your bets, then you will be living on an island one day with 2 masseuses, 4 butlers, 6 maids..

what i do each night after the games are over and this is what everyone should do each day is this.. this will tell you if you are doing it right or if you should quit gambling.. what i do each day is this.. after the games are all over, you open up sbr lines and compare each game you bet with the line, and compare it to pinny closer.. if you bet 6 games, then check each game with the line you got, vs Pinny closer..

if you beat pinny closer most of the time, you will win over the long haul. if not, then quit now before you go broke.. and i promise you you will go broke.. that's how you can tell if you are doing it right.

if you think you know sports and handicapping and your games are not beating the #, YOU WILL LOSE.. handicapping has nothing to do with picking winners. it's all a numbers game... stats shmats, throw it all out the window. it means shit. gambling is math. not knowledge of sports.

[thechaoz]

Ok this is a new concept to me and I appreciate your input Nicky, as lines have always been important but second to picking a winner (my 1st year gambling so hang with me). First, I'm decent at math so how would you calculate the no vig line? Also, in the posters example would getting +117 (9 cents difference) be just as good as getting the same 9c on the fav? If yes, then which side do you take? If not then do you just pick randomly since you are "beating the line".

Again excuse my noobness but I'm here to learn, claim no knowledge over serious posters here and appreciate any input. Cheers!

[durito]

-108 Boston
+115 Texas

Unless I had a rollover to finish, then perhaps I'd look at -1c.

[rm18]

in general would bet -109 or +113 or better if I had no opinion, I would bet Boston -120 if I thought it was a good bet and that was the best line I could get.

I know the game is over and is easy to say but I would of took the Ravens -150 last week if I had too and they were +150 or so at pinnacle, sometimes the lines are wrong.

Look at some of the early lines in all the sports at the beginning of the season and then think back what they would be if the line has to be remade. Sometimes spreads are inaccurate by double digits.

Florida St. was -7 week one against Miami last year that line was off by 13.5 points
The year before Oklahoma St. was -6 against WSU that line was literally off by 33 points.

Pinnacle might be the sharpest book but their lines are not gospel.

[thechaoz]

-108 Boston +115 Texas Unless I had a rollover to finish, then perhaps I'd look at -1c.

Ok if I'm reading right that sounds like an arb. From what I understand I might be able to find this when the lines open up and then wait for movement, but this would be very hard to find near closing, correct?

[Iceman]

It's very hard to do but it is doable if you have enough book, through expierence, no where and when to look and put the time. I look for scalpable lines with Pinny when I do this. So Boston -108 and texas +115 or so would be my trigger price.

I agree with going back and reviewing your card nightly. I do this everyday also. It tells you more then your wins or losses actually. Its like poker players who have that software now that tells them basically if they should be up or down based on the cards they have been dealt. Awesome thing to have/do.

Keep in mind for every 2 cents you beat the closing line on average you have a 1% edge. So track your next 100 bets, add them up and divide them into 100 and that should tell you where you are at. The problem is 100 bets isnt enough bets in my opinion but its a start.

I have also read that looking at value off the closing line is 3x better then your results so lets say you want to know if something works and you test the results over 600 bets, you can get the same type information by tracking 200 bets against the cloing line. That is what I have heard, I don't know how accurate thisis but if anything it explains how important beating the closing line is.

[statnerds]

Look at some of the early lines in all the sports at the beginning of the season and then think back what they would be if the line has to be remade. Sometimes spreads are inaccurate by double digits.

Florida St. was -7 week one against Miami last year that line was off by 13.5 points
The year before Oklahoma St. was -6 against WSU that line was literally off by 33 points.

it is with humility that I suggest that judging lines by the result, one result, is faulty logic.

I can also admit that I fell into this trap until about a year and a half ago. I have learned so much and still have much to learn, but you cannot attribute the accuracy, or inaccuracy, of a line based on outcome of the game.

[1800Gambler]

Not to hijack the tread but i have an example that i am trying to see if its correct. On tonights white sox orioles game the pinny line is white sox -169 and orioles +159 the no vig line i came up with is +/-164. Bet Us (i know its not a good book) is offering me orioles +175. From what i understand for every 2 cents you gain a 1% advantage so does this mean my odds to beat the closing line are 55.5 percent if i roll with the o's?

thanks for the help

[Waz]

Say Boston is -115/+108 over Texas at Pinnacle.

What is your strike price on betting Boston to pull the trigger and or betting Texas also.

What price would you need to bet on either team to make the play?

I have my answer how I handle it but want to hear yours. You both talked about some extremely high volume the other day and I thouhght I bet a lot of games. I was wondering if I maybe needed to "open" some things up a bit and loose the reins. Also question is for other off line players also who bet this way.


Thanks guys!!

I think the answer to this question lies in how you attack the game of betting, which there are obviously tons of different ways to do. If you are a high volume player, you're going to look to play a game with a lower "margin of safety" than if you are a lower volume/higher quality player. In this example, if you assume that the mid-point of Pinny's line represents the true line, then if you find anything better than -111 or +111 you should probably play it if you can beat it by more than a penny. If you are more of a handicapper, your model may say that the correct price is -114, which is still in the range of Pinny's price However, if your model is coming up with prices outside of Pinny's closing price, then something is probably wrong with your model. Assuming your model is good, then you play anything marginally better than -114 or +114, but you should probably leave yourself a "margin of safety" of at least a few cents.

What it boils down to is that the smaller your edge, the more plays you are going to have to make. If you can hit a higher percentage, then you can play it a little safer and still make out well with lesser plays. If you take this seriously, you should be putting together binomial distributions based on your edge and the number of plays you expect to make. Then you can see what the range of possibilities are for a given period of time. Even a player who normally hits 53% and plays over 3,000 plays a year has over a 5% chance of losing money in that year if you are on the wrong side of the tail of the distribution. Kind of scary, but if you increase your volume, you distribution becomes MUCH tighter and your results are much more predictable. It all depends on what path is most comfortable for each individual.

[Darkside Magick]

if pinny closes at -115/+108, then the no vig line is very close to -111... now anything you get better than -111 is a +ev bet.. if you can get -106, you are doing great. if you can do this on most of your bets, then you will be living on an island one day with 2 masseuses, 4 butlers, 6 maids..

what i do each night after the games are over and this is what everyone should do each day is this.. this will tell you if you are doing it right or if you should quit gambling.. what i do each day is this.. after the games are all over, you open up sbr lines and compare each game you bet with the line, and compare it to pinny closer.. if you bet 6 games, then check each game with the line you got, vs Pinny closer..

if you beat pinny closer most of the time, you will win over the long haul. if not, then quit now before you go broke.. and i promise you you will go broke.. that's how you can tell if you are doing it right.

if you think you know sports and handicapping and your games are not beating the #, YOU WILL LOSE.. handicapping has nothing to do with picking winners. it's all a numbers game... stats shmats, throw it all out the window. it means shit. gambling is math. not knowledge of sports.

this is a great post

[Grandmaster B]

if pinny closes at -115/+108, then the no vig line is very close to -111... now anything you get better than -111 is a +ev bet.. if you can get -106, you are doing great. if you can do this on most of your bets, then you will be living on an island one day with 2 masseuses, 4 butlers, 6 maids..

what i do each night after the games are over and this is what everyone should do each day is this.. this will tell you if you are doing it right or if you should quit gambling.. what i do each day is this.. after the games are all over, you open up sbr lines and compare each game you bet with the line, and compare it to pinny closer.. if you bet 6 games, then check each game with the line you got, vs Pinny closer..

if you beat pinny closer most of the time, you will win over the long haul. if not, then quit now before you go broke.. and i promise you you will go broke.. that's how you can tell if you are doing it right.

if you think you know sports and handicapping and your games are not beating the #, YOU WILL LOSE.. handicapping has nothing to do with picking winners. it's all a numbers game... stats shmats, throw it all out the window. it means shit. gambling is math. not knowledge of sports.

since you have mastered gambling what island do you live on>?

can we visit you??

[goblue12]

Nicky is right.

Durito is also right but a bit more selective.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for all the info here guys...this thread has been an eye-opener...now I wish I had a local here in minnesota that I could compare lines to! It just stinks when I am at books like 5 Dimes and Matchy which pretty much have the same lines all the time...

[Nicky Santoro]

since you have mastered gambling what island do you live on>?

GILLIGAN'S ISLAND.

[JerseyShop101]

since you have mastered gambling what island do you live on>?

can we visit you??

I'm pretty sure its Long Island.

[horseexpert]

Nicky is the man

[jolmscheid]

Hey guys...again thanks for all the input...NOW Nicky, Durito, and Iceman...do you guys use this for NO MATTER what the odds are? LIke if a moneyline play at Pinny is -350 and a different book has it at -310 would you still bet the -310 even tough the juice is huge? Or do you still bet it no matter what the odds are if you show a 7+ cent edge at your book compared to Pinny??

Thanks guys! This would help out a lot...to know what the cutoffs are for juice / underdogs or if there even is a cutoff??

[Grandmaster B]

Hey guys...again thanks for all the input...NOW Nicky, Durito, and Iceman...do you guys use this for NO MATTER what the odds are? LIke if a moneyline play at Pinny is -350 and a different book has it at -310 would you still bet the -310 even tough the juice is huge? Or do you still bet it no matter what the odds are if you show a 7+ cent edge at your book compared to Pinny??

Thanks guys! This would help out a lot...to know what the cutoffs are for juice / underdogs or if there even is a cutoff??

Durito lives in a hut and uses donkeys as his transportation

Nicky lives in a apt in Canada and claims he talks to God for NFL picks

shouldnt you direct these questions tword someone who lives in a big house and has a sports ticker in their bedroom?

just sayin

[rm18]

it is with humility that I suggest that judging lines by the result, one result, is faulty logic.

I can also admit that I fell into this trap until about a year and a half ago. I have learned so much and still have much to learn, but you cannot attribute the accuracy, or inaccuracy, of a line based on outcome of the game.

That is not what I am saying, I am not saying that OSU covered by 33, I am saying Vegas would of made them a 39 point favorite if those teams played at the end of the year. Arizona was a 41 point favorite at WSU I believe and they were not even that good of a team.

[durito]

Durito lives in a hut and uses donkeys as his transportation

Nicky lives in a apt in Canada and claims he talks to God for NFL picks

shouldnt you direct these questions tword someone who lives in a big house and has a sports ticker in their bedroom?

just sayin

So, I have multiple donkeys now? Sweet.

[Joe Dogs]

Good stuff.....Need more of this.

[jimbob03]

great post

[stevek173]

Great thread, ty.