Am I getting value or am I a retard?

[Jerm3462]

Example:

The Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills game on September 12 opens up with a o/u of 37.5.

An hour before game that total is 40.

So I bet the side that benefited from the line movement....UNDER 40. (Way better than UNDER 37.5)

Is this a good way of betting or am I retarded because I don't know something?

[mdemps9190]

That usually means someone bet the over pretty heavily so you could be getting screwed or just barely hitting the under if the sharp is right.

[Actionbrett]

That usually means someone bet the over pretty heavily so you could be getting screwed or just barely hitting the under if the sharp is right.

Dont listen to that advice

[Bostongambler]

Could be both. gl

[poker_dummy101]

your goal is to beat the closing line, not play the closing line

[B1GER1C828]

Example: The Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills game on September 12 opens up with a o/u of 37.5. An hour before game that total is 40. So I bet the side that benefited from the line movement....UNDER 40. (Way better than UNDER 37.5) Is this a good way of betting or am I retarded because I don't know something?

The movement just means a lot more money is on the over. To answer your question if betting under 40 is value or not, its easy answer. Football lines are generally the sharpest so you getting 2.5 points in your favor from the original line does look good, but alot more money on the over says otherwise from the sharps. Typically when i see movement like this, i don't bet the total. If you bet the over-you get absolutely no value, and if you bet the under, then your going against alot of sharps(even with your 2.5 extra points).

Now, if you planned on betting the under 37.5 before the line movement, and then the like jumps upto 40. then yes you get value. But betting for the sake of the line movement isnt very smart.

[jayc88]

won't work but you can still do it if a nfl total moves a lot of points due to bad weather conditions esp during the winter
going against these type of line movements is +ev imo

[MC PICKS]

Example: The Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills game on September 12 opens up with a o/u of 37.5. An hour before game that total is 40. So I bet the side that benefited from the line movement....UNDER 40. (Way better than UNDER 37.5) Is this a good way of betting or am I retarded because I don't know something?

You didnt bet the side if you took the under, you bet the total.