OMG you watch baseball? No way. That must make you a great baseball bettor, watching games and all. And you probably watch Baseball Tonight, too, for some great analysis. All of which allows you to end up with a nice losing record at the end of the season. You can talk all you want about watching baseball, but if you want to actually beat it you are going to need to come up with something a bit more substantiative.
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i dont need your link.
1) i can use yahoo if i want to find something out. 2) ive read all about your algorithm well before today. thats neat stuff. i just happen to actually watch baseball to find out who is the best. for instance, last year the bost red sox had the best record in baseball, they allowed the least amount of runs, and they won the world series but you two minds cant even recognize it because it seems that you've been brain washed.
my 500K per base hit is stupid? how so, its exactly what you said. i see that you think very highly of yourself, thats good. that makes one of us. giambi is probably the most overplayed pantload in the game.
i dont understand rs/ra? i understand that you referenced the dbacks rs/ra stats of 2007 when projecting what they will do in 2008. based on that, the red sox should have been an 80 win team this year. i dont see how its my fault when you say something stupid. if the 2007 stats didnt matter in 2007, then why should anyone think they will in 2008? one of you says the results dont matter, so who cares how many runs a team scores? those are results, results are silly, right?
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dont worry, results dont matter. next time you lose a wager, you better tell thegreek that results dont matter and you'd like your money back. you're a waste of time. i could tell everyone about PECOTA and pretend that, that means i understand baseball. so could my little sister. we'll see what you know when the season comes about. merry christmas, go have some whacks to your algorithms. no doubt its a tool for a serious capper, but you swear on it as if baseball prospectus is the real ms cleo. hell no, f that.
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Baseball is my sport, I dont need the bullshit theories and little systems you may use. Thats cute and all but when it comes down to it you dont know shit about baseball and your clearly making that very obvious. Like I said stick around and mofo and myself will teach you the finer points about the game of baseballComment -
Do I really have to explain the whole results oriented bit to you guys again?
dont worry, results dont matter. next time you lose a wager, you better tell thegreek that results dont matter and you'd like your money back.
Would you like to point out where I said I swear on it?but you swear on it as if baseball prospectus is the real ms cleo.Comment -
Baseball may be "your sport" but $1k says you can't make at least 200 bets on games next year and come out ahead.Baseball is my sport, I dont need the bull theories and little systems you may use. Thats cute and all but when it comes down to it you dont know about baseball and your clearly making that very obvious. Like I said stick around and mofo and myself will teach you the finer points about the game of baseballComment -
the season nears us, you two can join up a money league for fantasy where your projections should lead you to complete world domination.... and we'll also give baseball capping a go.
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You said the Yanks are the best team in MLB... I asked you to break down their pitching compared to the Red Sox and please tell me how you could even make an argument for the Yanks being the best.... You ignored me last time I asked you this... Dont have your little cute Pecota to bail you out on this one?Comment -
Why would I waste my time doing a fantasy league when I can spend less time winning at sports betting without having my money tied up for such a long period of time?Comment -
Why can't you people put this crap in the correct forum?Comment -
Because the only thing you seem to understand is ERA and other worthless "traditional" statistics, I won't even attempt it.You said the Yanks are the best team in MLB... I asked you to break down their pitching compared to the Red Sox and please tell me how you could even make an argument for the Yanks being the best.... You ignored me last time I asked you this... Dont have your little cute Pecota to bail you out on this one?Comment -
5 star,
That's great. Then you'll have no problem with my wager?Comment -
We need donjuan and thremp in our fantasy bases league since they think the are the real bases men!
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don, ive won a few baseball seasons and been killed in one. im not knockin ya, im just talkin about some baseball. no matter what you do, i'll be hoping you win every wager you make. im here to find an edge, share some thoughts, pick up anything i can, and enjoy some time. to be honest, right now my stomach is full of nasty stuff and im just praying that i feel better before i go over to the ladies house. blowin up her bathroom wouldnt be a good thing.
there is no doubt that there are many things to take into consideration when capping any game. im sure you've had success and i hope that continues in 08. 5 star is a winning baseball capper and i know this. hes just a knowledgable guy about the sport....you two should be able to gain from each other as the season goes on.
happy holidays to you.Comment -
Are you really this dense?
TY ChoneComment -
Might be the best league i was in, if alotta people who live and breathe bases are in. But who knows if "they" will actually put money down on their knowledge, or if they just "all talk"?Comment -
I don't see how watching lots of baseball would help one in handicapping baseball at all. In fact I think it would be a huge waste.Comment -
I watch all of 30 games or so the whole season and Baseball is the only sport I cap and have done so succsessfully for the last 4 years. I'll catch the occasional Sunday night game or braves game on TBS but thats about it. No real need to watch it to cap it. Just my thoughts.Comment -
There's almost nothing to gain except, perhaps, some predictive value with pitchers or hitters who're having mechanics issues, but you'd have to be trained to spot these and very intently watching. Its not something a passing fan is going to catch.
There some good THT analysis of swings/pitches (I think BP does this as well during draft time), but even with frame by frame stoppages and explanations it makes it somewhat tricky to spot exactly the problems in each swing/pitch. Doing this type of analysis on the fly would be absurdly difficult and have a very marginal effect on your earning potential.Comment -
an old write up of mine. some things i look at when i take the time to look a game over.
pinny has the line set at Clev -$1.04 and Det -$1.04 @ 4:42 est
right now i am listening to a piece called "operation dinner out" and its from the "spy game" movie soundtrack. excellent
here we are....Rogers vs Byrd. neither has impressive stuff, both know how to pitch. To grade their talent you might give lefty a 6 out of 10 and byrd a 4. knowledge of the game and how to set hitters up, rogers a 9.5 and byrd a 8.3. some people are throwers, some people are pitchers, and those that have both are stars.
well we all know that Det had Rodney pitch like crap tonight for a couple innings which means he wont be available on tuesday but Joel Is rested and thats good news for the tigers. Clev doesnt have anyone in the pen trully worthy of much mention so capping their pitchers rp isnt much more then a slight negitive each time out. Zumaya + vs Clev pen -.
best batters on Clev are hafner and siezemore, both lefties and vs rogers thats a slight - for clev. i could care less what they are vs lefties as a whole b/c the fact is that doesnt mean that ****ing much. if your vs santana/liriano/bedard/kaz your stats likely suck vs "lefties" as some might say when in fact your stats trully just suck vs good pitching like eveyrone elses. for instance, joe Mauer hit his first Hr off a lefty tonight...you know why? b/c that lefty made a bad pitch and he smashed the **** out of it. the guys are pros and have faced lefties and righties their entire lives, fact is, it tougher for most people to hit lefties b/c they see them less. so a couple of clevs top bats are lefties and their vs a lefty thats been around, slight - for clev.
now neither one of these guys are strike out pitchers so you know the ball is going to be in play for the first 5-7 innings while these boys work and det has the better defense so thats a small + for det
knowing that the ball will be in play a lot we're gonna take a look at who puts the highest percentage of good swings on the ball and who hits for the highest average on balls put in play. first guy we come to is Joe mauer who hits .408 on balls put in play which is #1 in baseball. coming down to our game we have Granderson at .367 (6th), sizemore at .352 (7th), pudge at .350 (8th), and victor Martinez and Carlos guillen each at .331 and tied for (19th) in the AL. hafner isnt far behind so we'll leave this at pretty even.
now we want to see which team has more players who hit a higer % of line drives which is the most frequent batted ball the lands for a base hit (not grounders or fly balls). the first one in our game is jason Michaels who hits lines drives 25.9% of the time which is good for 3rd in the AL. he is followed closely by boone and then granderson and Pudge giving two players from each team in the top portion of the league but Michaels a bit of a surprise and not someone you typically figure in when capping which is a bit of a bonus for clev. you know each game has a surprise guy that comes out of nowhere and you think to yourself, "wtf, i cant believe that douche hits a HR vs me, figures". we know the stars but part of it is trying to figure out which team may have some goofball surprise us, tomorrow it may be Michaels and it may not...just something to look at.
now lets take a look at the pitchers and what they have been giving up this year. with rogers/pudge you know you are going to have the running game under control so we dont figure in any steals for the first 6 innings or so tomorrow vs Det. keepings runners close plays a role in not only not allowing steals but sometimes preventing a guy from going first to 3rd on a single which can be big. A problem Rogers does face is the HR and hes given up 17 of those which is 2 more than he gave up all of last season. the good news is he is walking less people and ahs a lower whip which means a HR is more likely a solo shot than a multi-run blast. The elfty also sports a .437 Slugging% against which is .037 points higher than where he ended last season. kennys ERA sits just below 4.00 and his RA (era but included unearned runs) stands at 4.19. rogers gives up 18.1% line drives, 47.4% ground balls, and 5.8% infield flies. the rest are outfield fly balls, 13.7% of which end up as HRs which is far higher than where Rogers was last season. there is some more but thats enough for kenny rogers...lets look at Paul Byrd for a bit.
the first thing i see is that byrd/martinez dont keep runner from stealing on them. Det may not run a ton, but they will have the option should they choose. Byrd also isnt a guy that induces many Dps which is important when determining a ptichers ability to get himself out of a jam. Paul Byrd gives up an identical .437 slugging percentage. now as we pointed out Rogers and how simliar his era was to his "RA" we dont have the same case here with Byrd. Byrd allows 4.28 earned runs an outing but 4.91 total runs per outing which, as e already mentioned, shows how poor clev can be on defense and thats why det got that small advantage. the bad news for byrd is the he gives up 22.7% of his batted balls for line drives which is pretty ****ing high. he also only gets 36.4% ground balls which means the ball spends a lot of time in the air which can be a killer but byrd manages by getting 12.8% of the those fly balls for infield flies and only 9.2% of his outfield fly balls leave the yard; 11-12% is the average rate. one thing that i didnt mention with rogers was the % of men that he leaves on base which is a solid # where he ios concerned but is not for byrd whom only keeps 68.9% of the men that reach vs him stranded.
more recently paul byrd has been pretty bad allowing a whip of 1.50 or higher in each of his last 4 games. his numbers for the season are decent but the % of line drives he gives up, his inablity to hold runners, his lack of a pitch to induce double plays and his lack fo a strike out pitch make him a good bet to allow some runs tomorrow. on the other side there is Kenny Rogers who has been a bit worse recently posting a whip of 1.50 or higher in each of his last 5 outings and all but 1 well over 1.50.
it seems that we have a couple pitchers in a rut and we'll see some runs put up in clev tomorrow, i havent checked if the ump is an under or over guy, but its a fair bet that the ball will be put in play fairly frequently and guys will be crossing the plate. Det has Joel ready and the better overall pitcher on the mound. I would lean towards the over 9.5 and a slight lean towards Det if playing this contest. this is merely an example write up of a game someone posted a poll about. there is more involved, but this should be enough for now.
bol,Comment -
i like them all except the phillies. i think that the brewers will win the central and the cubs will win the wcComment -
Can't wait to get the bases contest going so that we can see all of these baseball minds in action next spring. Should be one helluva' profit pouring in for everyone here at SBR
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