Pretty decent correlated parlay available...

[Doug]

Winnipeg -11.5
over 46.6

Winnipeg should dominate according to the CFL guy I follow. Playing it with over is logical as my addition to the play.

[Doug]

WINNIPEG –11½ over Toronto Pinnacle

Frankly, the only encouraging thing for the Argos in week one was they lost by only 14 points. Yeah, the Stamps were very lucky to cover but in the same sense, all the Argos points were rather lucky too. Statistically, the game was as one-sided as they come, as the Stamps recorded 28 first downs to the Argos 11 and outgained them 500 to 246. However, the most alarming stat was time of possession, as Calgary held the ball over 42 minutes while the Argos held it under 18. That’s incredible and so is the fact that the Argos, based on the stats and time of possession, didn’t lose by five TD’s. Offensively, the Argos offer up nothing, as Cleo Lemon was awful in his CFL debut and he just doesn’t have the receivers to help him nor does he have an O-line to protect him. The Blue Bombers defense did a solid job on the dangerous Ticats last week and allowed just 291 total yards of offense. They also scored 49 points in that game and will take a huge, huge step down in class here when facing this feeble and untalented intruder. You can never base your picks on one week of action but this is an exception because the Argos really are that bad. Last week’s 14-point loss was an extremely flattering score for the Argos and unless the Bombers lay a big-time egg, the Argos are primed to get ripped apart both on the field and on the scoreboard. Play: Winnipeg –11½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

[2daBank]

is this game today Doug? i know nothing bout CFL but this sounds solid to me ...

[Doug]

This guy is from Toronto. I listen to what he says about Toronto teams especially strongly.

Here is his CFL record.

Picks' History - CFL

2004 11-6 + 4.12 units

2005 7-7 +1.15 units

2006 11-4 +12.12 units

2008 9-3 +13.35 units

2009 9-10 -3.41
Canadian Football League picks for: :
W L P +/-
Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 4 0 0 +4.00 Units
Season To Date (Since June 2010) 4 0 0 +4.00 Units

[Doug]

is this game today Doug? i know nothing bout CFL but this sounds solid to me ...

Yes, 8:05 pm

Don't go crazy with it, I'm not calling it a lock or anything. It does fit nicely as a favorite to over parlay.

This man ( Brian Steinberg) is good with CFL. He is not a tout, BTW, does not sell picks

[Doug]

I show him as 51-30 62.96%

smallish sample size but I have known the guy for years, his picks are pretty solid across all sports. He's best with NHL and CFL, IMO.

[biggie12]

I have to disagree with your friend Doug. I think Toronto is in a great spot to cover on the road tonight. (at the same time this team is really struggling) but i don't think it is smart to get your money in on Winnipeg.

[Doug]

That is why I think making it a parlay at +260 or better is nice. If Brian is correct then Winnipeg might win 41-21 or something like that, if not you lose a +260 bet. I like his record and his take on Toronto teams.

If I'm laying 11.5 points adding over 46.5 works for me to get +260 instead.

It is not super-correlated like 30 points and a 46.5 total but somewhat correlated.

If you like Toronto, then +11.5 and under 46.5 might be an option for Toronto backers.

The most anti-correlated parlay has to be Winnipeg -11.5 and under 46.5 , That is probably about 20% to hit or less instead of the normal 25%.

[Rich Boy]

This is not correlated.

[forsberg21]

Yes, 8:05 pm Don't go crazy with it, I'm not calling it a lock or anything. It does fit nicely as a favorite to over parlay. This man ( Brian Steinberg) is good with CFL. He is not a tout, BTW, does not sell picks

Can you post a link to his site?

[Doug]

This is not correlated.

not correlated enough to bet it blindly and profit, I'll agree with that. However I'm following my buddy Brian here that hits 63% in CFL. He says Winnipeg in a blowout.

4 possible results here

Dog and under
Fav and over


Dog and over
Fav and under

They are not 25 % each

Top 2 are better than the bottom 2

Fav and under being worst

Now if this was NFL and not CFL , that a spread of 14.5 and a total of 39.5, most folks would call it correlated. This CFL isn't that far off from that.

It is related somewhat.

An nba game with a spread of 2 and a total of 200 has no correlation.

A game like this CFL one is where a +280 is nice, but I'd take +260

[Doug]

Can you post a link to his site?

SBR might not like that, so I'll pm it to you.

[Doug]

Here's his baseball for today, again he doesn't sell picks. He plays baseball near even, but is great at futures. Nice writeups too.

I like Brian best for NHL and CFL. He at least tells you why he likes a game. He operates like SBR, gets a cut off of losers. He's told me that players will bet their own dumb stuff and lose, even if I give them winners. Overall his picks across all sports are probably about even after 5+ years.

Your job is to pick the gems of wisdom he provides. I never go against a Brian pick involving the Toronto whatevers. I'm capable of betting against him, just not in NHL or CFL

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.



Florida/ARIZONA under 9 Pinnacle

The D-Backs and Marlins rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in strikeouts in the NL, and with two power pitchers on the mound, there’s likely going to be a lot of whiffs in this game. That’s always good for the under. Don’t even think about Haren’s 4.38 ERA. Rather, concentrate on the differential between his ERA and his xERA (3.48) and feel confident that a positive correction is coming. Fact is, Haren's control, domination and BPV (137) are Elite with a capital "E". The fly in the ointment? Haren is giving up bombs at an unprecedented rate (1.6 HR/9). You can bet that corrects itself as well. Then there’s Ricky Nolasco, who is similar to Haren in that his ERA is higher than it should be. Nolasco’s ERA over his lat five starts (4.91) is a complete illusion, as his xERA is 2.38. Nolasco has been pummeled by an unfavorable hit percentage and strand percentage. Like Haren, he, too, has pinpoint control, as evidenced by his 19 walks in 103.2 innings. Bottom line is that the surface stats don’t reflect this elite-pitching match-up and therefore we get a very beatable number to go under against. Play: Florida/Arizona under 9 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).



HOUSTON +1.85 over St. Louis Pinnacle

What we have here is the majors most overvalued team, the Cards, playing the majors most undervalued team, the Astros and the result is an inflated line. Hopefully, the Cards will be favored in all three games so that we can all get some great value over this weekend. Even with such a horrible record, the Astros have won four of six from the Cardinals this season, all at Busch Stadium, and swept St. Louis during a three-game set May 11-13. Bud Norris (75 BPV, 5-0-2-3-4 PQS) has made encouraging back-to-back starts since returning from a DL stint for right biceps tendinitis. Norris has faced the Cardinals twice this season, compiling a 0.69 ERA and 182 BPV (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). Adam Wainwright is an elite pitcher. He’s been incredibly consistent with his skills this season (despite a recent rough start against Toronto), posting month-by-month BPV scores of 103, 143 and 110. He can dominate, anytime, anywhere and certainly can do that here. However, this isn’t about playing against Wainwright at all. It’s about taking back +1.85 on the Astros against a team they can beat and that is way overpriced. Incidentally, the Cards have lost three, six of eight and its pen is in bad shape after a three-game set in Colorado while the Astros have won three straight and its pen is in good shape after playing the feeble Pirates. Play: Houston +1.85 (Risking 2 units).



Baltimore +2.15 over TEXAS Pinnacle

We’re going to split this up and play the Orioles in the first five and the full game because of an O’s bullpen that cannot be trusted, especially at this park. Anyway, what is true is that Scott Feldman should not be better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone. Feldman is about as ordinary as they come and even that’s a stretch. He’s won five games all year for a team that’s won 50 games and it’s not because he doesn’t get run support. The Rangers are just 8-9 in games that’s he’s started, so he’s personally lost 25% of all the Rangers losses this year. Feldman is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 7.13. In three recent games vs Houston, Pittsburgh and Seattle, arguably the three worst offenses in baseball, Feldman lasted a combined 18.2 innings and allowed 30 hits for a BAA of .427. On May 20 he faced the O’s and they, too, hit him hard to the tune of 12 hits in six innings. Brian Matusz has made some great strides over his last seven starts. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem against the Red Sox. In fact, Matusz has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and right across the board his numbers are better than Feldman’s. Since June 1, Matusz has seen his ERA dip 1.20 runs and that’s a damn good sign. The Orioles are playing much better ball these days too. They’re scoring runs and they should have won three of its last five after blowing a late four-run lead against the Tigers on Tuesday. They beat the Rangers here last night and with a tag like this against Feldman, they’re definitely worth a shot tonight. Play: Baltimore +2.00 in the first five innings (Risking 1 unit). Play: Baltimore +2.15 (Risking 1 unit)



Note: The CFL is now underway and this year we'll analyze every game.

[Doug]

baseball record isn't great.

Picks' History - MLB

2004 Record 47-69-3 (+2.96 units)

2005 Record 196-264 (-29.83 units)

2006 Record 189-241 (-33.06 units)

2007 Record 209-257 (+19.19 units)

2008 Record 167-225 (-35.98 units)

2009 Record 154-188-14 (-6.92 units)


Major League Baseball picks for: :
W L P +/-
Yesterday 1 1 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 46 41 1 +35.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 129 157 2 +4.70 Units


Major League Baseball picks for Last 30 Days :

[Doug]

again. if you lay the 11.5 points, might as well parlay at least half your bet to over the 46.5.

think about it !

[blackbeSSt]

i don't know shit about cfl, but at least its football and im all over it

[KingKolzig]

Winnipeg -10.5
over 46.5
Bluejays +120
Bluejays u7.5
Spain (regulation)

parlay 25 to win 696

[Doug]

i don't know shit about cfl, but at least its football and im all over it

take a shot on the parlay for like 1 unit.

[blackbeSSt]

take a shot on the parlay for like 1 unit.

on it!