Should I hedge?

Ralphie1412 · 07-05-10, 10:33 PM

Ride it out....girl

2daBank · 07-05-10, 10:36 PM

who is Villa and wtf is the Golden Boot? im assuming it is some kind of soccer thing? well whatever if you make a future and the opportunity arises where you can hedge and profit regardless of the outcome imo that is the way to go, unless you feel real strongly about it then maybe just hedge to cover the bet in case it loses......

GiveMeaBJ · 07-05-10, 10:39 PM

Yea, I know hedge is smart, and I do feel confident. But how to hedge when three other guys can still take it down? I don't want to piss away a winning bet just so I could save one unit.

2daBank · 07-05-10, 10:41 PM

true, like i said i got no freakin clue what it is you betting, is there a option to bet that the guy you got doesnt win?

GiveMeaBJ · 07-05-10, 10:43 PM

No there is no option.

I'm talking world cup Bank! I figured with all the times your up early you would have caught some of it.

TWEETS · 07-05-10, 10:53 PM

Mueller is out for the semis i think, i would only be worried about Klose.

2daBank · 07-05-10, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

No there is no option.

I'm talking world cup Bank! I figured with all the times your up early you would have caught some of it.

lol, ok world cup, wtf is the Golden Foot? is that leading goal scorer, mvp, what? yea its usually on my tv and i even bet some of it but couldnt name 5 players and dont pay much attention when its on, some of my best sleep has come during the matches for that i am grateful to soccer.....i tried and it was a little exciting to me at 1st but grew old and uninteresting very fast to me......gl whatever you decide.....

Mr Windy City · 07-05-10, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

Ride it out....girl

Yea, you should be giving gambling advice........

Wade Dwayne · 07-05-10, 11:09 PM

Just Klose would be the smart bet. Netherlands are struggling to score goals and Sneijder probs only scores from a dead ball situation and of course Mueller is not playing in the semi.

2daBank · 07-05-10, 11:11 PM

if one of the 3 behind him is out for the semis like Tweets said im not sure why you wouldnt put a unit each on the other 2 Giver, is there any chance anyone besides the guys you have listed wins it? if not this makes the most sense to me.......that would leave you on still + 5 units if you hit with your guy and if it one of the others you still turn a profit.....

thezbar · 07-05-10, 11:13 PM

I would not hedge in this situation. You are in a strong position. If I were to hedge it would only be to cover the original stake.

forsberg21 · 07-05-10, 11:30 PM

Here's what you do, and this is contingent on you having a BetFair account. If you don't, then you can still salvage this.

If you have a Betfair account, you take David Villa NOT to win the Golden Boot. The lay on this is 1.70, which is equivalent to getting +143 on this wager. You wager 3.29 units on David Villa NOT winning the Golden Boot. Now you have the following wagers:

David Villa to win the Golden Boot: 8 units payout (1 unit @ 8.00)
David Villa not to win the Golden Boot : 8 units payout (3.29 units @ 2.43)

So you have now shelled out 4.29 units to win 8 units. You have locked in a guaranteed profit of 3.71 units.

Now, if you DON'T have a Betfair account:

I have found prices for the remaining 3 players at slightly better odds than the ones you have listed:

Klose: +400
Sneijder: +1000
Muller: +2000

Now you need to get an 8 unit payout from this hedge, so you align your wagers like this:

Klose: 1.6 units
Sneijder: 0.73 units
Muller: 0.38 units

This will give you a total of 2.71 additional units wagered to cover this hedge, which is better than the above scenario if you were to hedge this on Betfair. So now we've figured out that you DON'T need the Betair account.

You've shelled out a total of 3.71 units (1 initially + 2.71 hedged between these 3 players) to lock in a payout of 8 units, which gives you a profit of 4.29 units. The ONLY problem with this second hedge is that it doesn't cover you completely, if Podolski scores 3 goals against Spain, you might have to adjust this hedge. Very unlikely, but possible nevertheless.

I took Villa as well at the start of the tourney to win this thing along with a few others, including Klose.

If you have any questions about this hedge or about the numbers, you know how to get a hold of me.

Domestic · 07-05-10, 11:33 PM

Ride it out.

Patrick McIrish · 07-05-10, 11:44 PM

Players get to the point where their wager really holds a ton of value and then they want to hedge away some of the profit? You see this a lot in the last leg of a multi-team parlay. The question should be (if it was at all possible) how can I get down more on this bet, not how can I give some of it away. If you're tempted to hedge out the last leg of a 4 team parlay just play a 3 teamer next time. Never hedge unless it's a bankroll concern.

jjgold · 07-06-10, 05:30 AM

Its not worth it if your betting small
Many believe sporadic hedging is not a good thing as in the long run it all evens out

Scalping which is basically the same thing works if done majority of time

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 08:31 AM

Great advice from everyone, especiall Forsberg. Thanks.

GroundnPound · 07-06-10, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Patrick McIrish

Players get to the point where their wager really holds a ton of value and then they want to hedge away some of the profit? You see this a lot in the last leg of a multi-team parlay. The question should be (if it was at all possible) how can I get down more on this bet, not how can I give some of it away. If you're tempted to hedge out the last leg of a 4 team parlay just play a 3 teamer next time. Never hedge unless it's a bankroll concern.

Yep basically you said what I was thinking just put in sentences that make sense

Jimmy0607 · 07-06-10, 09:12 AM

David Villa will win it

Pharieswheel · 07-06-10, 09:25 AM

As long as he's still in the running you're odds are excellent to win, goals are tough in world cup, I['m confident you'll prevail.

Jaug · 07-06-10, 01:51 PM

Let it ride of course. Worst thing that could happen is a dead heat and you still win.

forsberg21 · 07-06-10, 03:11 PM

BJ, I'm in this with you, I have Villa as well. Didn't like seeing that Sneijder goal... both are tied now and Sneijder's getting another game, too bad we can't say the same thing about Villa... did you end up hedging???

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 03:28 PM

I took a bit of your advice as well as Lakerboy. Muller out for semi-final so **** him. Took Close for 1.5 units and Sneijder for 1. So if Sneijder wins I get 7.50 and lose 2.5= +5. If Klose wins I get 5.25-2= +3.25. If Villa wins I get 7-2.5=+5. I will take it.

Here is my question though. What happens if say Sneijder and Villa remain tied? And does our 3rd place game count towards the boot. Because if so I love Villa and wouldn't have hedged.

KingKolzig · 07-06-10, 03:29 PM

time to auction off one of ur rolls

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by KingKolzig

time to auction off one of ur rolls

Que?

forsberg21 · 07-06-10, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

I took a bit of your advice as well as Lakerboy. Muller out for semi-final so **** him. Took Close for 1.5 units and Sneijder for 1. So if Sneijder wins I get 7.50 and lose 2.5= +5. If Klose wins I get 5.25-2= +3.25. If Villa wins I get 7-2.5=+5. I will take it. Here is my question though. What happens if say Sneijder and Villa remain tied? And does our 3rd place game count towards the boot. Because if so I love Villa and wouldn't have hedged.

SHYT... that's one thing I never considered, the 3rd place game. I completely forgot about that. That's better for our cause actually.

I think Muller is outta the races, because he's only going to be playing in 1 of the next 2 games, at most. Klose and Villa are the other horses still in this race, but I thought that one of these horses would automatically get knocked out, which is not the case because of the 3rd place game. Plus, one of these guys will be facing Uruguay, which the Netherlands just beat up on. Smart play by hedging it though, especially after Sneijder had that goal today.

What price did you get Klose and Sneijder at?

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 04:20 PM

Same ones I posted 350 on Klose and 750 on Schneider. I wasn't going to deposit onto another book just to get a few extra bucks out of a hedge.

Never thought Scneider would score. Think Villa still wins it but it's nice to know I am pretty safe right now barring a Muller explosion after the next game.

forsberg21 · 07-06-10, 04:26 PM

Yea you're solid now. Muller is your only threat, and he's going to be playing one more game, same thing with Forlan. I should have got on Sneijder last night as well, but I figured having Klose and Villa already were enough. I got Klose at +3900 before the World Cup started too

rm18 · 07-06-10, 04:31 PM

You hedged and then Forlan could win it and you lose all kinds of extra money

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by rm18

You hedged and then Forlan could win it and you lose all kinds of extra money

Exactly. No one took into account the 3rd place game and we all assumed Netherlands would advance.

GiveMeaBJ · 07-06-10, 04:36 PM

But, Forlan still has to score two next game and Villa, Klose and Sneijder can't score again

forsberg21 · 07-06-10, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by rm18

You hedged and then Forlan could win it and you lose all kinds of extra money

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

But, Forlan still has to score two next game and Villa, Klose and Sneijder can't score again

Exactly... very unlikely

rm18 · 07-10-10, 01:59 PM

Muller is in the lead now

forsberg21 · 07-10-10, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by rm18

Muller is in the lead now

Tied... which is a huge difference when calculating the eventual payout. BJ, you do have Sneijder and Villa, so as long as one of those guys score tomorrow (and Muller doesn't get anymore), you'll get paid.

rm18 · 07-10-10, 02:23 PM

Mueller has the tiebreaker and will get the award, not sure how it works for wagering though.