Pros: Who do you use?

[djiddish98]

I don't think Justin is intending to print his exact methodology for 4% edges in book form.

[Flying Dutchman]

Yeah. A guy who doesn't even know where to get 2nd half NBA line histories "knows his shit." You have no cats to let out of the bag. You're a funny guy, Dutchman. Stupid but funny nonetheless.

Here we are again, I'm talking modeling you're talking data. You data base guys think you really can model don't you? "nobody uses CSV" The entire scientific modeling industry is 90% based on ASCII flat read in, puff-ball. BTW, I concentrate on areas where I have an edge and halfs are not that area, at least not yet, so no I don't know it.

I really, really hope egr posts your stuff somewhere. Then we all can watch your head shrink down to the size of your dick...oh shit, I forgot you think thats massive too.

[egr99]

Here we are again, I'm talking modeling you're talking data. You data base guys think you really can model don't you? "nobody uses CSV" The entire scientific modeling industry is 90% based on ASCII flat read in, puff-ball. BTW, I concentrate on areas where I have an edge and halfs are not that area, at least not yet, so no I don't know it.

I really, really hope egr posts your stuff somewhere. Then we all can watch your head shrink down to the size of your dick...oh shit, I forgot you think thats massive too.

I will be posting a daily recap as agreed, have no worries.

I am fairly certain Monkey will post a winning record during the 3month period in all honesty.

Payment should be going through today.

egr99

[Maverick22]

Here we are again, I'm talking modeling you're talking data. You data base guys think you really can model don't you? "nobody uses CSV" The entire scientific modeling industry is 90% based on ASCII flat read in, puff-ball. BTW, I concentrate on areas where I have an edge and halfs are not that area, at least not yet, so no I don't know it.

I really, really hope egr posts your stuff somewhere. Then we all can watch your head shrink down to the size of your dick...oh shit, I forgot you think thats massive too.

Fight! Fight! Fight!

Dutchman:1 Monkey: 0 (I'll be keeping tabs on the argument)...

As a db guy, ill ignore the "we think we are modelers" comment

[Flying Dutchman]

Fight! Fight! Fight!

Dutchman:1 Monkey: 0 (I'll be keeping tabs on the argument)...

As a db guy, ill ignore the "we think we are modelers" comment

Mav, I really wasn't pointing at you, but maybe just the attitude in general. And Monkey is ALL about attitude; dumping on folks because they are not doing tech shit however which strange way Monkey does it. And how is that? Monkey is not going to tell you, besides you're so stupid you wouldn't understand it anyway. No matter what you say, it won't keep Monkey from shitting on you. We all know he's the Alpha shitter around here.

The db/data miners like to think that the world began when they started building their "decision trees" in the 90s. Much of this is just glorified angle techniques and folks trying a million ways to basically partition data sets. And then they wait for effect and say: "I also use Neural Networks." What? OK, I'll just melt down into a jelly I'm so impressed. And then that crap falls apart too as it's mostly overfitted bullshit.

I really, really want to see this. Monkey under the microscope.

[BigdaddyQH]

Can this place get more amaturish? A bunch of big talkers. Egr99. Here is what I will do for you and your inflated ego. We will have a little action on college football. We will do this like gamblers, not big mouths who are trying to impress themselves because no one else gives a crap. PM me if you are interested and we will set something up like professionals do. There is no need for the 10,000 losers in here to throw their 2 cents in. That is the proper way to handle a wager. All I ask of you is that you show some professionalism. Fair enough?

[Maverick22]

Mav, I really wasn't pointing at you, but maybe just the attitude in general. And Monkey is ALL about attitude; dumping on folks because they are not doing tech shit however which strange way Monkey does it. And how is that? Monkey is not going to tell you, besides you're so stupid you wouldn't understand it anyway. No matter what you say, it won't keep Monkey from shitting on you. We all know he's the Alpha shitter around here.

The db/data miners like to think that the world began when they started building their "decision trees" in the 90s. Much of this is just glorified angle techniques and folks trying a million ways to basically partition data sets. And then they wait for effect and say: "I also use Neural Networks." What? OK, I'll just melt down into a jelly I'm so impressed. And then that crap falls apart too as it's mostly overfitted bullshit.

I really, really want to see this. Monkey under the microscope.

Ehh, its all good. Just joshing you Just passing time posting while some test scripts run (plus i'm more an application developer than a database guy, i've just been dubbed such since i've been here C'est la vi )

I want to see how good Monkey does.. He did talk a fairly large game, and he does portray and advertise the "greater than thou" vibe...

Maybe I should challenge Monkey to a head-to-head handicapping contest... I get an inkling I might win

Any takers versus head-to-head vs Maverick22?

[Flying Dutchman]

Can this place get more amaturish? A bunch of big talkers. Egr99. Here is what I will do for you and your inflated ego. We will have a little action on college football. We will do this like gamblers, not big mouths who are trying to impress themselves because no one else gives a crap. PM me if you are interested and we will set something up like professionals do. There is no need for the 10,000 losers in here to throw their 2 cents in. That is the proper way to handle a wager. All I ask of you is that you show some professionalism. Fair enough?

He's talking starting NOW BigDaddy Dickwad, not sometimes this fall. Nice customer relations coming in, BTW.

Besides, you're late...a number of people have numbers lower than you.

...one other thing, what's a cheeseball like you doing in the Tank? Monkey may be a bully, but at least he understands this stuff, sort of...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Here we are again, I'm talking modeling you're talking data. You data base guys think you really can model don't you? "nobody uses CSV" The entire scientific modeling industry is 90% based on ASCII flat read in, puff-ball. BTW, I concentrate on areas where I have an edge and halfs are not that area, at least not yet, so no I don't know it.

I really, really hope egr posts your stuff somewhere. Then we all can watch your head shrink down to the size of your dick...oh shit, I forgot you think thats massive too.

This isn't science, genius. You're STILL talking DATA when you're talking about CSV's, moron. That has nothing to do with modeling. NOT A FUKKING THING. I don't care what "scientific" modelers do. I came up in the financial modeling world, where these types of things are far more akin. Most people there have programmers who actually make their code efficient out of necessity. And when you're processing gigs of data at a time with a FINITE deadline, as is the case in a pitch by pitch MLB monte carlo simulation, you certainly need efficiency as well.

[Maverick22]

This isn't science, genius. You're STILL talking DATA when you're talking about CSV's, moron. That has nothing to do with modeling. NOT A FUKKING THING. I don't care what "scientific" modelers do. I came up in the financial modeling world, where these types of things are far more akin. Most people there have programmers who actually make their code efficient out of necessity. And when you're processing gigs of data at a time with a FINITE deadline, as is the case in a pitch by pitch MLB monte carlo simulation, you certainly need efficiency as well.

Monte Carlo Simulations For The Win

[Dark Horse]

This thread has turned into a joke, and doesn't belong in the think tank.

[Flying Dutchman]

Pitch-by-Pitch Monte Carlo...oh my...

Monkey, I am impressed...

...by the numbers of other folks who've come up on the rocks in MLB using this approach. With all that data you're chasing around and the massive amount of code to get ** working, how do you find the time to chase those Bellagio hos or play WSOP? Are you really sure all that spaghetti is plugged in and working right? You got a full-time statistician on board to check those frequency distributions? Oh, and how about when things change...like during inter-league play...got that, right?

Are you writing ** sims for all your sports?

Either the hos are getting bored while you do all the work you need to make this approach really work, or it's just a massive pile of central limit crap.

[Maverick22]

Pitch-by-Pitch Monte Carlo...oh my...

Monkey, I am impressed...

...by the numbers of other folks who've come up on the rocks in MLB using this approach. With all that data you're chasing around and the massive amount of code to get ** working, how do you find the time to chase those Bellagio hos or play WSOP? Are you really sure all that spaghetti is plugged in and working right? You got a full-time statistician on board to check those frequency distributions? Oh, and how about when things change...like during inter-league play...got that, right?

Are you writing ** sims for all your sports?

Either the hos are getting bored while you do all the work you need to to make this approach really work, or it's just a massive pile of central limit crap.

Dutchman: 2 Monkey: 0

[Flying Dutchman]

This thread has turned into a joke, and doesn't belong in the think tank.

The joke is, you Tank guys won't take on a bully like Monkey when he comes in spewing poison to anyone with a different idea.

...oh, high minded guys like you can't be bothered, right?

[MonkeyF0cker]

There are plenty of goodness of fit tests that work just fine for frequency distributions. I would argue that interleague is much easier to model with monte carlo than with regression or sabremetrics. The rest of your post is rubbish as usual.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The joke is, you Tank guys won't take on a bully like Monkey when he comes in spewing poison to anyone with a different idea.

...oh, high minded guys like you can't be bothered, right?

Uhh. Dark Horse has plenty of different ideas. He's one who plays mostly systems. Show me one post where I've berated him.

[Dark Horse]

The joke is, you Tank guys won't take on a bully like Monkey when he comes in spewing poison to anyone with a different idea.

...oh, high minded guys like you can't be bothered, right?

High minded has nothing to do with it.

You either focus on what matters, or are sidetracked by what doesn't.

[Flying Dutchman]

There are plenty of goodness of fit tests that work just fine for frequency distributions. I would argue that interleague is much easier to model with monte carlo than with regression or sabremetrics. The rest of your post is rubbish as usual.

Well, if you are relying on a bunch of GOFs to insure your freq. dists. are working, I'm glad my money is not at risk when you get into a tail. Do do realize that sports have a number of unique distributions, right? Or are you a "bell shape curve" kinda guy?

We build these ** things all the time; pile them all on top of each other and it typically squashes out to goo if you really, really don't have a handle on the dists. Most people don't have time to do all the checking, and I suspect (and you know deep in your heart) you haven't either.

BUT, we get to taste this pie, folks. I especially want to be there.

...as for DH, I'm surprised he's a systems player. If he is, and you know it for a fact, and you are the modeler "God gave us," why are you, of all people, NOT on his case?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, if you are relying on a bunch of GOFs to insure your freq. dists. are working, I'm glad my money is not at risk when you get into a tail. Do do realize that sports have a number of unique distributions, right? Or are you a "bell shape curve" kinda guy?

We build these ** things all the time; pile them all on top of each other and it typically squashes out to goo if you really, really don't have a handle on the dists. Most people don't have time to do all the checking, and I suspect (and you know deep in your heart) you haven't either.

BUT, we get to taste this pie, folks. I especially want to be there.

...as for DH, I'm surprised he's a systems player. If he is, and you know it for a fact, and you are the modeler "God gave us," why are you, of all people, NOT on his case?

So now you're retreating to an argument about goodness of fit. Awesome. My checks are done programmatically. Are there really unique distributions in sports? No shit? Thanks, Captain Obvious.

[Flying Dutchman]

So now you're retreating to an argument about goodness of fit. Awesome. My checks are done programmatically. Are there really unique distributions in sports? No shit? Thanks, Captain Obvious.

Einstein, you mentioned the GOFs, I simply followed it up.

So, you check your freqs "programmatically"?

...OK, lets see: piles of spaghetti code, and the model is autochecking the freqs.

Class: anybody see any problems here?

...no wonder the hos are happy.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Einstein, you mentioned the GOFs, I simply followed it up.

So, you check your freqs "programmatically"?

...OK, lets see: piles of spaghetti code, and the model is autochecking the freqs.

Class: anybody see any problems here?

...no wonder the hos are happy.

Perhaps, you could elaborate. How do you figure that goodness of fit cannot be tested programmatically? It is a simple numerical output. You're just running in circles. And if "the hos are happy," that would suggest that I was successful. Wouldn't it, genius?

[Maverick22]

Perhaps, you could elaborate. How do you figure that goodness of fit cannot be tested programmatically? It is a simple numerical output. You're just running in circles. And if "the hos are happy," that would suggest that I was successful. Wouldn't it, genius?

I think that was sarcasm on Dutchman's part.

[Jakesteen]

I have not bought any of their services but I have tracked Kelso Sturgeon for 2 years and talked to them at length about what services they offer. I've heard mixed reviews but he's been in business for a long time and has a pretty good track record.

[Flying Dutchman]

Perhaps, you could elaborate. How do you figure that goodness of fit cannot be tested programmatically? It is a simple numerical output. You're just running in circles. And if "the hos are happy," that would suggest that I was successful. Wouldn't it, genius?

Jesus, I gotta explain everything. "keeping the hos happy" goes to the fact you ain't spending the time on the code. Pitch-by-Pitch is a LOT of FVKING code to do it right. LOTS of FVKING code means LOTS of FVKING ERRORS. If you ain't in the data and really understanding it (read your data mining book, you twat) and letting automatic procedures mind the store, you got shit going wrong, period.

BTW, atomic level detail does not translate into a better model. The more detail, the more data, the more possibilities for error, the more things you have to understand. Simple, elegant sims that get at the problem typically bring the better results.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

This novice stuff typically separates the men from the boys in the modeling world, BUT THE COOL THING IS WE GET TO SEE YOUR RESULTS!!!!

[lyon804]

Loving the drama.. Not a think tank thread but humorous nontheless. I for one am looking forward to seeing the results of this proposistion. I believe over a 3 month period MF will prove profitable.

[Maverick22]

Did the money transfer happen?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Jesus, I gotta explain everything. "keeping the hos happy" goes to the fact you ain't spending the time on the code. Pitch-by-Pitch is a LOT of FVKING code to do it right. LOTS of FVKING code means LOTS of FVKING ERRORS. If you ain't in the data and really understanding it (read your data mining book, you twat) and letting automatic procedures mind the store, you got shit going wrong, period.

BTW, atomic level detail does not translate into a better model. The more detail, the more data, the more possibilities for error, the more things you have to understand. Simple, elegant sims that get at the problem typically bring the better results.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

This novice stuff typically separates the men from the boys in the modeling world, BUT THE COOL THING IS WE GET TO SEE YOUR RESULTS!!!!

So now you're changing the subject again? LOL. It took me months to code my pitch by pitch model and that was after I already had a base model designed. The Pareto Principle doesn't explain how goodness of fit cannot be implemented programmatically. But nice diversion.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I am curious though since you brought up the Pareto principle, what level of refinement is acceptable to you? I want to know what I SHOULD be doing. I guess less. Right? You do realize that there are quite a few people in the market using sabermetrics which is pretty damn refined already. So how do you suppose you beat the market? By processing LESS? You can't be serious. The MLB isn't the NBA.

[Joe Dogs]

egr 99

If you do come to terms with MonkeyFOcker.....Where will you post daily updates.....Gut feeling tells me you'll be making some loot.Bol

[jjgold]

No such things

All touts are fukkin scum of the earth and scammers

They would not sell scam picks if they were so good and just bet themselves

Do not be a fukkin jerkoff and ever pay one

[Wrecktangle]

I was wondering when this thread would be moved to PT and JJ would show up.

Nice photo JJ. Seems you gained a bit of weight and got a new rug.

[JVP3122]

I don't think Justin is intending to print his exact methodology for 4% edges in book form.

As a side-note, does anyone know when Justin's book is due to come out?

[Flying Dutchman]

I see this is in PT now.

Let me make a point: Monkey and I may be having a pretty vocal discussion, but both of us are bringing up points that you DON'T see in PT. A discussion about Monte Carlo methods: pro and cons for example, a few points about data mining also. If you only can see the fight, then yes indeed this thread is for the room-temperature IQ levels of JJ and the average PT denizens.

[Flying Dutchman]

Oh, one more point. Since DH brought up the point that this thread is worthless, all I can say is that I would expect a comment like that from a "systems" player. I've got a OUIJA board, how's that for a system? Have you tried goat-entrails and tea-leaves? That would match up with your eastern philosophy horse-shit too.

[Moneyliner7]

You dont need anyone to help you. Follow the below rules and over a months time you will have more moneythan you started with.

I am at over 80% this year. I documented for a couple weeks (read my only posts) but as you said there are alot of haters on SBR. Even when I was up over 75% all the people could say was why I posted just before game time.. LOL.. Like the one poster says on here.. just follow your rules religiously... I never deviate..

only bet on sports you know.
Only bet 1/20 5% of bankroll
Never bet on bad weather games.. Only ideal conditions
Never bet an underdog. Only better strong offense, consistent teams
Never chase! Ever!
If you lose you lose. no half time bets, no next game. You pick your one best game and that is your game
Never bet on more than one game at a time. The worst is to win one game then lose the next best game? Why would you do that. I see so many people bet 4,5, 6 games.. Ridiculous..
Always check all stats, previous history, injuries before betting all the way to game time. Never bet early even if you get the line.
Never buy points. Find a different game or bet another day if this isnt your game.
Last... Never ever deviate from your above rules.. and I promise you will win..75% of the time. Take that to the bank

Good luck