Is getting 2:1 a good bet here?

Chi_archie · 05-25-10, 07:55 PM

you have to pick on all 350 some games?

I think there is less than a 66.6% chance of you doing that

push for 3:1

Chi_archie · 05-25-10, 07:56 PM

I mean to say greater than 66.6% chance that you WON'T DO THAT

Terrapin Station · 05-25-10, 08:00 PM

Good luck with this endeavor.

Chi_archie · 05-25-10, 08:02 PM

yes, and please make a thread of all your picks throughout the season here, so we can root you on

its very tough to hit 50% ATS picking your top 4 games every week in the NFL.....

sharpest lines in sports

clarkacal · 05-25-10, 08:03 PM

Really? With no vig, just straight up? What if every time I make a pick I end up going the opposite of it, then I would be a huge favorite? lol If there is no vig I don't understand where the disadvantage comes from...

Terrapin Station · 05-25-10, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

yes, and please make a thread of all your picks throughout the season here, so we can root you on

its very tough to hit 50% ATS picking your top 4 games every week in the NFL.....

sharpest lines in sports

exactly

Chi_archie · 05-25-10, 08:06 PM

lotsa of trap lines in the nfl....

Cuse0323 · 05-25-10, 08:13 PM

That's tough, I'd like to think I could do it and with no juice it seems easy but it'll be tough. With 2:1 I'd do it though for a challenge.

clarkacal · 05-25-10, 08:24 PM

I'm getting 1k to $500 here. The guy in question once layed me 60 to 50 on a coin flip which I lost, but last year bet me $500 straight up that I couldn't pick more straight up NFL reg season winners than he could but he had to beat the spread. Needless to say he got his ass kicked and by week 15 he was done.

Chi_archie · 05-25-10, 08:25 PM

well do it, and then you can hedge if you are close near the end

Cuse0323 · 05-25-10, 08:26 PM

1k for 500, that's worth the risk for sure if you ask me. Could pick em out of a hat and hit it, but that's no fun.

mathdotcom · 05-25-10, 08:28 PM

Of course you should take this bet. If you flip a coin for every game you have a 50% shot of winning. You're expected to beat 50% as often as you're expected to be below 50%. So the fair price on this game is +100, and if he's offering you +200 you should definitely take him up on it.

Even if this were a moneyline contest, if you closed your eyes and picked teams randomly, you're still expected to hit 50% (you're as likely to pick the team that's -800 as you are the team that's +800). Of course if it were a moneyline contest, though, you should just pick all the favorites.

clarkacal · 05-25-10, 08:41 PM

oh I already took the bet. Yeah mathdotcom I was thinking it was a coin flip too, the theory that people tend to pick the wrong way seems flawed to me, plus i'm just going to pick out of a hat anyway.

mathdotcom · 05-25-10, 08:59 PM

clark - now you know why your friend isnt a bookie anymore

clarkacal · 05-25-10, 09:04 PM

It just goes to show what a disadvantage the average sportsbettor has. This guy is clueless but still made money. His problem was he got stiffed by a couple of big accts plus the feds got him too I think.