WHY Isn't This Profitable? Shouldn't this be easy?

Sawyer · 05-22-10, 05:33 PM

That's right. Even with a %40 (or %35) winning percentage you can make money by using Labouchere System. But it gets tough when you go on losing streak. Any capper can go 0-5 or 0-7, this is betting. Even Professional Handicappers (like Ben Burns) can go on wild losing streaks like 0-10.

THE PROFIT · 05-22-10, 05:34 PM

The part that says anyone can hit 50% is where you start to lose me. If anyone can hit 50% then juice is the most any of us should ever lose, right???

Have you glanced at JJ's spreadsheet lately???

mathdotcom · 05-22-10, 05:34 PM

It's very intuitive. If we flip coins and I make you bet into -110 on heads or tails, then you are going to lose no matter how you bet.

Why do people think they can beat that game if they triple their bet every 3 bets or something?

jolmscheid · 05-22-10, 06:21 PM

I understand what you are saying Math, Sawyer, and Profit....

So if one had a way of picking games that was meaningful (NOT flipping a coin), then using the labouchere SHOULD be profitable correct? I understand that one can go on losing streaks...

So Math, why wouldn't the labouchere work?? I don't understand...if one can hit 50% of their bets, then why wouldn't they be profitable? Thanks

Sam Odom · 05-22-10, 06:32 PM

Well... It is like this in lay terms.

If averages held true in the short run then any system would win. If I knew I could win only four -110 bets in EVERY 10 wagers I would be rich.

But they dont. The long run is longer than you think.

Doc JS · 05-22-10, 06:35 PM

back to the coin flip...if you flip it an infinate number of times, it will come out 50/50...but its possible, almost guarenteed that you will have a stretch of 10 heads (or tails) in a row.
If you hit one of those 0 for 10's in a chase system, you are broke...
Doc

jolmscheid · 05-22-10, 06:49 PM

But isn't a labouchere system NOT a chase system?? Thanks

suicidekings · 05-22-10, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

I understand what you are saying Math, Sawyer, and Profit....

So if one had a way of picking games that was meaningful (NOT flipping a coin), then using the labouchere SHOULD be profitable correct? I understand that one can go on losing streaks...

So Math, why wouldn't the labouchere work?? I don't understand...if one can hit 50% of their bets, then why wouldn't they be profitable? Thanks

Your ability to profit is a function of your bankroll size. How much of your roll can you afford to lose / have in play at one time and still operate? You're essentially betting against eventually hitting a losing streak that will cripple your bankroll, and the stakes go up every time you lose an individual wager. For you to profit over the long term, you would need to structure your bet sizes relative to total bankroll to find an optimum balance between profitability and risk management, but with every wager loss, your total efficiency decreases as you wager more and more to earn the same net profit.

It's equivalent to chasing a loss on a ML fave wager with a larger ML fave until you win...

Doc JS · 05-22-10, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

The long run is longer than you think.

Amen !

Doc

Sam Odom · 05-22-10, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

But isn't a labouchere system NOT a chase system?? Thanks

(Not being a smart-ass) Try it your way and report back to us.

suicidekings · 05-22-10, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

But isn't a labouchere system NOT a chase system?? Thanks

How do you figure? You have to recover a loss from a previous wager somehow to have a net profit on the series.

jolmscheid · 05-22-10, 07:02 PM

I understand...SO do ALL of you bet straight wagers?? Thanks...I was just looking to see if the labby would work and if anyone uses it. What about a 2 or 3 line labby to cut back on larger wagers?

Sam Odom · 05-22-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Doc JS

Amen !

Doc

Doc, I saw that "The long run is longer than you think" on a guy's tee shirt at a poker tournament

I have to keep reminding myself that my pocket Tens will in the long run show a profit against an Ace/Jack

suicidekings · 05-22-10, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

I understand...SO do ALL of you bet straight wagers?? Thanks...I was just looking to see if the labby would work and if anyone uses it. What about a 2 or 3 line labby to cut back on larger wagers?

Straight wagers are the most sensible option until you develop your handicapping skill to the point where you can quantify how big your edge is on a particular wager and justify the extra risk of a larger bet size.

Doc JS · 05-22-10, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Straight wagers are the most sensible option until you develop your handicapping skill to the point where you can quantify how big your edge is on a particular wager and justify the extra risk of a larger bet size.

These are words of wisdom...

Doc

jim · 05-22-10, 07:40 PM

the best to be said about the labouchere system is that it's not the martingale.

you're still chasing of course.

milwaukee mike · 05-22-10, 09:09 PM

sam i would argue that pocket 10s would NOT be an advantage over aj in the long run (in a no limit game), UNLESS you are heads up with all your chips in preflop.
otherwise the aj will hit 3 times as many flops as you will, not even counting straight and flush draws.

if you can see a cheap flop with 10s so be it, but 7 times out of 8 you will miss the flop and probably have to dump the hand.

pavyracer · 05-22-10, 09:12 PM

It is much harder to win in sports gambling when actual money is involved. You got to learn how to control your emotions and back off.

OmgUrMom · 05-22-10, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

sam i would argue that pocket 10s would NOT be an advantage over aj in the long run (in a no limit game), UNLESS you are heads up with all your chips in preflop.
otherwise the aj will hit 3 times as many flops as you will, not even counting straight and flush draws.

if you can see a cheap flop with 10s so be it, but 7 times out of 8 you will miss the flop and probably have to dump the hand.

wat lol? you are joking right? Tons of flops hit pocket tens, any flop with no card above a ten is a huge flop for pocket tens. Also one overcard is not that bad, for example a J 8 3 flop is a good flop for your pocket tens if you are only against a couple opponents.

Pocket 10's is a much better hand then AJ and I don't know one experienced player who would disagree.

Sam Odom · 05-22-10, 09:53 PM

Just for the heck of it I ran XX vs AJ-off heads up pre flop 10m times

XX wins 56%

as99 · 05-22-10, 09:55 PM

Chase systems only work when you have an unlimited bank roll

. For a safety net of 10 straight losses..... YOU COULD NEVER TRUST ANY BOOK.

lolbear · 05-23-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by OmgUrMom

wat lol? you are joking right? Tons of flops hit pocket tens, any flop with no card above a ten is a huge flop for pocket tens. Also one overcard is not that bad, for example a J 8 3 flop is a good flop for your pocket tens if you are only against a couple opponents. Pocket 10's is a much better hand then AJ and I don't know one experienced player who would disagree.

pocket 10s is indeed better than AJ preflop. postflop I think TT is a lot harder to play than AJs, with AJ all you really have to worry about is hit or not hit, and once hit only have to worry much about kicker problem and only 2 overpair to J with ace kicker. it is also easy to give up to an overbet. 10s u either hit, miss, or run into marginal spots. preflop though 1010 is much easier to play than AJ but there are people who won't give up 10s or jacks while they do give up AJs, so its a double edged sword